All 32 NFL Teams Ranked by 2026 Strength of Schedule

According to compiled opponent win percentages from 2025, the Dallas Cowboys enter the 2026 campaign with the 20th-hardest schedule, carrying a .493 opponent win percentage. That number represents a significant shift from what they faced just one year ago, when they battled through one of the league’s toughest projected slates.

Strength of schedule, calculated using the combined win percentage of each team’s upcoming opponents, is often treated as a forecasting tool. However, it is far from a guarantee. The modern NFL changes rapidly through free agency, the draft, coaching transitions, and player development. Still, the data provides a compelling snapshot of what lies ahead.

NFC East Outlook

Within the NFC East, the Cowboys fall squarely in the middle of the pack.

The Washington Commanders rank 16th at .502, while the New York Giants sit just behind at 17th with a .498 mark. Meanwhile, the two-time defending division champion Philadelphia Eagles appear to have caught a relative scheduling break, ranking 23rd at .481.

For Dallas, that mid-tier ranking could be an opportunity. After enduring the fifth-hardest schedule last season based on 2024 records and finishing 7–9, a slightly lighter slate may provide breathing room. But in the NFL, perception rarely matches reality.

The Hardest Schedules in 2026

At the top of the difficulty scale stand the Chicago Bears, who face the league’s toughest projected road at .550. The challenge stems largely from the NFC North’s competitiveness combined with crossover games against the AFC East.

Close behind are the Miami Dolphins (.542), Arizona Cardinals (.538), and Green Bay Packers (.538). The Kansas City Chiefs, perennial contenders in the AFC, rank fifth at .536, reinforcing that even elite teams rarely receive favorable breaks.

For franchises already navigating roster transitions, a top-five difficulty ranking compounds the margin for error. Injuries, depth, and quarterback consistency become magnified when the weekly opponent profile skews toward playoff-caliber teams.

Middle-of-the-Pack Cluster

The center of the rankings reveals a tightly bunched group where slight performance swings could dramatically alter playoff outlooks.

The Denver Broncos (.512), Los Angeles Rams (.516), Seattle Seahawks (.514), and San Francisco 49ers (.497) all hover near the league’s median. These teams are unlikely to benefit from scheduling extremes, meaning internal improvement and divisional results will dictate their fate.

The Cowboys’ .493 rating places them slightly below this cluster, but not far enough to suggest a true advantage. In practical terms, they remain within the competitive middle, where weekly execution defines trajectory.

The Easiest Projected Paths

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Cleveland Browns hold the league’s easiest projected schedule at .429. The New Orleans Saints (.434) and Cincinnati Bengals (.450) round out the bottom tier.

An easier schedule does not guarantee postseason success, but it does provide a statistical cushion. Teams in rebuilding phases often benefit from facing lower aggregate win totals, allowing younger rosters to develop without constant high-pressure matchups.

Still, history shows that preseason strength-of-schedule rankings frequently unravel. Teams that finished poorly one season may rebound sharply the next, rendering earlier projections obsolete.

Why Strength of Schedule Can Mislead

The volatility of the NFL makes static projections fragile.

Quarterback injuries, coaching hires, breakout rookies, and defensive scheme shifts can transform a franchise in a single offseason. A team projected as formidable based on last year’s record may regress sharply. Conversely, rebuilding squads can accelerate quickly with strong draft classes and cap flexibility.

That unpredictability is especially pronounced in divisions like the NFC East, where turnover at the top has been common over the last decade.

The Cowboys themselves illustrate this point. Entering last season with one of the league’s toughest projected schedules, they stumbled to a 7–9 record and missed the postseason. Yet much of that outcome stemmed from internal inconsistency rather than schedule strength alone.

The Cowboys’ Opportunity

For Dallas, the 2026 slate offers a reset.

A .493 opponent win percentage suggests competitive balance rather than overwhelming adversity. If roster continuity holds and key veterans remain healthy, the Cowboys have a path back into playoff contention.

However, a middling schedule provides no excuses. Unlike teams facing the league’s top five hardest paths, Dallas cannot attribute potential struggles to sheer opposition strength. Execution, depth management, and late-game performance will determine success.

The broader NFC East picture also suggests parity. With Washington and New York hovering near the middle and Philadelphia facing a lighter slate, divisional matchups could ultimately swing postseason positioning.

Full 2026 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Chicago Bears (.550)
Miami Dolphins (.542)
Arizona Cardinals (.538)
Green Bay Packers (.538)
Kansas City Chiefs (.536)
New England Patriots (.531)
Las Vegas Raiders (.529)
Buffalo Bills (.528)
Los Angeles Chargers (.522)
Carolina Panthers (.521)
Minnesota Vikings (.519)
New York Jets (.517)
Los Angeles Rams (.516)
Seattle Seahawks (.514)
Denver Broncos (.512)
Washington Commanders (.502)
New York Giants (.498)
San Francisco 49ers (.497)
Pittsburgh Steelers (.495)
Dallas Cowboys (.493)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (.491)
Jacksonville Jaguars (.490)
Philadelphia Eagles (.481)
Baltimore Ravens (.479)
Tennessee Titans (.476)
Houston Texans (.474)
Detroit Lions (.467)
Atlanta Falcons (.465)
Indianapolis Colts (.465)
Cincinnati Bengals (.450)
New Orleans Saints (.434)
Cleveland Browns (.429)

Final Perspective

Strength of schedule is an offseason conversation starter, not a season verdict.

For the Cowboys and the rest of the league, these numbers set the stage but do not write the script. Free agency, draft capital, health, and quarterback play will ultimately determine which projections hold and which collapse under the weight of reality.

The 2026 season may look manageable on paper for Dallas.

Whether it becomes a springboard or another missed opportunity will depend on everything that happens between now and kickoff.