Is Adley Rutschman Underrated in 2026? Why the Orioles Star Catcher May Be Poised for a Major Comeback

Every offseason, MLB Network releases its highly anticipated Top 10 rankings at each position, sparking debate among fans and analysts across baseball. Few lists generate more discussion than the catcher rankings, and the 2026 edition has already created a major talking point: Adley Rutschman is no longer in the top 10.

Just two years ago, Rutschman was considered the best catcher in baseball. In 2024, he ranked No. 1 on MLB Network’s list. In 2025, he dropped slightly to No. 2 but remained firmly among the elite. Now, in the 2026 rankings, the Baltimore Orioles star is completely absent.

For many fans and analysts, this raises an important question: Is Adley Rutschman underrated heading into the 2026 MLB season?

Adley Rutschman’s Ranking Drop: A Shocking Development

The omission of Adley Rutschman from MLB Network’s 2026 Top 10 catchers list marks the first time in his professional career that he has been considered outside the elite tier at his position. For a player widely viewed as a franchise cornerstone for the Baltimore Orioles, the ranking drop feels dramatic.

MLB Network’s analytical ranking system, often referred to as “The Shredder,” takes into account advanced metrics, recent performance, and projections. If those metrics suggest Rutschman is no longer a top-10 catcher, it could have major implications not only for his reputation but also for the Orioles’ outlook.

Since making his MLB debut, Baltimore’s success has been closely tied to Rutschman’s performance. During his early career surge—from 2022 through the first half of 2024—the Orioles emerged as one of the most successful teams in the American League. Over that stretch, Rutschman maintained an OPS above .800 and served as the heartbeat of the lineup.

However, since July 2024, both Rutschman and the Orioles have experienced a noticeable decline. The catcher has endured a prolonged slump, and Baltimore has struggled to maintain its winning pace. That correlation has only fueled the narrative that Rutschman’s performance is critical to the team’s success.

Still, being left off the top-10 list may say more about perception than reality.

Plate Discipline Remains an Elite Strength

One of Adley Rutschman’s defining traits throughout his career has been his exceptional plate discipline. Even during his recent slump, that skill set has remained largely intact.

Rutschman has consistently ranked among the league leaders in:

• Walk rate (BB%)

• Strikeout rate (K%)

• Chase percentage (Chase%)

• Whiff rate (Whiff%)

These metrics provide strong evidence that his underlying approach at the plate remains solid.

A look at his discipline metrics from 2022 through 2025 shows remarkable consistency:

• 2022: Elite walk rate and controlled strikeouts helped establish him as one of baseball’s most polished young hitters.

• 2023: Improved contact and reduced strikeouts demonstrated growth and maturity.

• 2024: Slight regression appeared, but his overall approach remained strong.

• 2025: Plate discipline rebounded, with improved chase and whiff rates.

Even during his offensive downturn, Rutschman has continued to avoid chasing pitches outside the zone and rarely swings and misses compared to league averages. These are foundational hitting skills that typically age well and signal future rebound potential.

Because of this, there is little evidence that pitchers have “figured him out” or exposed a fatal flaw in his swing. Instead, the data suggests that his struggles may be tied to other factors—most notably batted-ball quality and health.

The Line Drive Problem: Key to His Slump

At his best, Adley Rutschman thrives as a line-drive hitter who uses all fields. Early in his career, his line drive rate consistently sat above 22%, placing him among the top hitters in baseball in that category. That ability allowed him to maintain a strong batting average and on-base percentage, making him one of the most reliable offensive catchers in MLB.

However, things began to change in the second half of 2024. His line drive rate dipped to around 20%, then dropped further to just 17% in 2025. That decline pushed him outside the top 200 hitters in line drive rate—a significant fall for a player whose offensive success depends heavily on consistent contact.

While a 17% line drive rate isn’t disastrous by itself, it becomes more problematic when considering Rutschman’s hitting profile. Power hitters like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Fernando Tatis Jr. can thrive with lower line drive rates because they generate elite exit velocity and home run power. Rutschman, while capable of hitting home runs, is at his best when he’s spraying line drives across the field rather than relying solely on power.

The drop in line drive rate suggests mechanical or timing issues rather than a fundamental decline in skill. If he can rediscover his earlier approach, his offensive production could quickly rebound.

Coaching Changes Could Spark a Bounce-Back Season

Another reason for optimism is the Orioles’ evolving coaching philosophy. Since Craig Albernaz took over as manager, he has emphasized individualized hitting plans tailored to each player’s strengths.

Rather than applying a one-size-fits-all offensive strategy, Baltimore’s coaching staff is focused on helping each hitter maximize their unique skill set. For Rutschman, that likely means returning to the fundamentals that made him successful early in his career:

• Driving the ball to all fields

• Prioritizing line drives over launch-angle chasing

• Maintaining elite plate discipline

• Controlling at-bats and pitch counts

A customized hitting approach could be exactly what Rutschman needs to rediscover his peak form.

Health Could Be the Biggest Factor in 2026

Perhaps the most overlooked aspect of Rutschman’s recent struggles is health. During the 2025 season, he landed on the injured list four separate times. Frequent injuries can disrupt rhythm, timing, and overall performance—especially for a catcher, one of the most physically demanding positions in baseball.

Entering the 2026 season, there is optimism that Rutschman will be fully healthy for the first time in over a year. A healthy offseason and spring training could allow him to rebuild strength, refine mechanics, and regain confidence at the plate.

Historically, players returning to full health after injury-plagued seasons often outperform expectations. If that trend holds true, Rutschman could easily reestablish himself as one of the top catchers in MLB.

Is Adley Rutschman Underrated Heading Into 2026?

Given the data and context, the argument that Adley Rutschman is underrated entering 2026 carries significant weight. His exclusion from MLB Network’s top-10 catcher rankings appears to be driven largely by recent performance rather than underlying skill.

Key reasons he may be undervalued include:

• Elite plate discipline remains intact

• No clear evidence of pitchers exploiting a major weakness

• Slump tied largely to line drive decline and injuries

• Strong potential for rebound with improved health

• Continued importance to Orioles’ offensive structure

If Rutschman returns to his early-career form, he could quickly climb back into the top tier of MLB catchers. In fact, being overlooked may provide extra motivation heading into the new season.

Final Thoughts: Don’t Count Out the Orioles Star

While MLB Network’s rankings suggest Adley Rutschman has fallen out of the elite catcher conversation, the underlying metrics tell a different story. His approach at the plate remains strong, his skill set is intact, and a healthier 2026 season could set the stage for a major comeback.

For Baltimore Orioles fans, there is little reason to panic just yet. If anything, the “underrated” label may serve as the perfect fuel for Rutschman to prove his critics wrong.

As the 2026 MLB season approaches, one thing is clear: Adley Rutschman still has all the tools to reestablish himself as one of baseball’s premier catchers—and he may be more motivated than ever to do so.