Did Simeon Woods Richardson Outperform Bailey Ober in 2025 — and Is He Now the Twins’ Better Starter?

As the Minnesota Twins enter the 2026 MLB season, their starting rotation is shaping up as one of the deepest and most intriguing groups the organization has assembled under president of baseball operations Derek Falvey. Four rotation spots appear locked in: co-aces Pablo López and Joe Ryan, bounce-back candidate Bailey Ober, and the steadily ascending Simeon Woods Richardson.

The final rotation spot will be decided in spring training, with Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, David Festa, and Mick Abel all in the mix. Altogether, this eight-pitcher group rivals the Twins’ vaunted 2023 rotation as the most talented and versatile staff of the Falvey era.

Yet amid that optimism, one question stands out:

Did Simeon Woods Richardson actually keep the Twins in games better than Bailey Ober last season—and if so, why?

Ober’s Track Record vs. a Concerning 2025 Decline

On paper, Ober still owns the stronger résumé. Since 2023, he ranks as Minnesota’s third-most valuable starter by FanGraphs WAR (6.6 fWAR), trailing only Ryan (8.6) and López (9.6). His combination of elite command, deception, and a plus changeup made him a stabilizing presence near the top of the rotation.

That reputation took a hit in 2025.

Ober posted career-worst numbers across the board, finishing with a 5.10 ERA and 4.90 FIP over 146 1/3 innings. While still capable of missing bats, his overall effectiveness slipped, and his margin for error shrank noticeably. The most alarming indicator was a drop in fastball velocity, with his four-seamer averaging just 90.3 mph, down from 91.7 mph during his breakout 2024 campaign.

Velocity wasn’t the only issue. Ober’s slider lost consistency and effectiveness, forcing him to rely heavily on his changeup. Without the same fastball life to set hitters up, his secondary pitches simply didn’t play as well.

Woods Richardson’s Growth Was Real — Especially Late

While Ober struggled, Simeon Woods Richardson took a clear step forward in his second full season as a starter.

Despite a brief demotion to Triple-A St. Paul in mid-May, the 25-year-old finished the year with a 4.04 ERA and 4.52 FIP, striking out 107 batters while walking just 46 across 111 1/3 innings. Those numbers don’t jump off the page—until you look at how he finished the season.

After the trade deadline, Woods Richardson was arguably Minnesota’s best starter. Over his final 30 2/3 innings, he posted a 3.52 ERA, 3.95 FIP, and an elite 31.1% strikeout rate. During a stretch in which Joe Ryan faded and Pablo López missed extended time, Woods Richardson carried the rotation.

By contrast, Ober struggled down the stretch, posting a 4.80 ERA while continuing to show diminished velocity.

Arsenal Evolution Is the Key Difference

The divergence between the two pitchers is best explained by arsenal trajectory.

Woods Richardson’s four-seam fastball velocity has climbed steadily over his major league career, topping out at 93.2 mph in 2025. That added velocity has allowed his slider and splitter—both of which flashed above-average—to play up significantly. Hitters were forced to respect all three pitches, leading to more swing-and-miss and weaker contact.

Ober, meanwhile, is moving in the opposite direction. The fastball velocity decline narrowed his margin for error, and when his slider failed to miss bats, hitters could sit on the changeup. For a pitcher who relies heavily on precision rather than raw stuff, even a small dip in velocity can have outsized consequences.

Is This a Temporary Dip — or a Changing Hierarchy?

There is still a reasonable case that Ober’s 2025 struggles were injury-related. If healthy, he could regain his previous form and reassert himself as Minnesota’s clear No. 3 starter behind López and Ryan.

But the risk is no longer theoretical.

If Ober opens 2026 with diminished velocity and inconsistent results while Woods Richardson continues to build on his late-season breakout, the Twins may be forced to reconsider their internal hierarchy. What once seemed unthinkable—Woods Richardson leapfrogging Ober—now feels plausible.

The Bigger Picture for the Twins’ Rotation

Minnesota’s rotation success in 2026 will ultimately depend on López and Ryan performing at or above their established standards. Still, the battle between Ober and Woods Richardson could quietly shape the ceiling of the entire staff.

If Woods Richardson cements himself as a legitimate frontline arm and one or more of the Twins’ young challengers force their way into the rotation, Ober’s role may no longer be guaranteed. For now, the Twins have the luxury of depth. But depth has a way of turning into pressure.

And entering 2026, Simeon Woods Richardson is no longer just depth—he’s a legitimate threat to redefine the Twins’ pitching hierarchy.