The Houston Astros made a savvy, forward-thinking move by signing Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai earlier this offseason – a creative addition that could pay dividends on the mound. But that same move, combined with a few others, may have also backed them into a financial corner. As things stand, Houston is brushing up against the first Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold, and unless they find a way to shed some salary, their offseason shopping may already be over.

Let’s break down the numbers. The Astros’ projected 2026 payroll sits at roughly $238.4 million.

That puts them just under $6 million shy of the first CBT threshold, which is set at $244 million. And based on the tone from owner Jim Crane, it sounds like the club is aiming to stay under that line – or at least not cross it without a very compelling reason.

That brings us to Victor Caratini, the team’s backup catcher in 2024 and 2025, and a player who could be a valuable piece again in 2026 – if the Astros can make room.

Caratini signed a two-year, $12 million deal with Houston ahead of the 2024 season, and he delivered exactly what you’d hope for in a veteran backup. He brought defensive reliability behind the plate, a switch-hitting bat with some pop, and the versatility to play first base in a pinch.

That kind of flexibility is gold on a contending roster. But unless Caratini is willing to take a significant discount – and there’s been no indication that he is – bringing him back would likely push the Astros over the tax line.

The initial expectation this offseason was that Houston would make re-signing Caratini a priority. After all, reliable backup catchers don’t grow on trees, and Caratini has proven he can handle a pitching staff, contribute offensively, and step into a larger role if needed. But things have changed – both for the Astros and for Caratini.

At 32, Caratini may be eyeing a chance at a starting job elsewhere, especially given his ability to switch-hit and fill multiple roles. But that opportunity hasn’t materialized yet. He remains unsigned, and while that could be chalked up to the slow-moving market for position players this winter, it also suggests that teams aren’t lining up to hand him a starting role.

That could open the door – at least slightly – for a reunion in Houston. But the financials have to line up, and right now, they don’t.

If the Astros want to bring Caratini back, they’ll likely need to clear some salary. Two names immediately come to mind: Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker.

Trading either player would give Houston more breathing room under the tax threshold. Paredes, in particular, could be the key.

Moving his contract would not only help the Astros retain Caratini, but it could also help clarify the team’s long-term direction as they look beyond 2026.

The Astros aren’t in panic mode – far from it. They’ve got a strong core, a smart front office, and a history of making shrewd moves.

But this offseason has become a bit of a balancing act. They’ve added a promising arm in Imai, but unless they can create space on the books, they may have to let go of a valuable depth piece in Caratini – a player who’s quietly been one of the more underrated assets on the roster.

The clock’s ticking, and the margins are tight. If Houston wants to keep its roster depth intact and stay under the tax, something’s got to give.