News regarding the Kansas City Chiefs’ expected plans for the 2026 NFL Draft began circulating on January 16, sparking immediate debate among fans, analysts, and draft enthusiasts nationwide.

The Athletic’s Jesse Newell quickly addressed circulating rumors that the Chiefs could select Ohio State’s star safety Caleb Downs with the No. 9 overall pick, firmly debunking the notion and setting the record straight.

The speculation had gained traction due to the Chiefs’ defensive needs and Downs’ status as one of the top-rated safeties in the draft, but Newell emphasized that history and strategy suggest Kansas City will go in a different direction.

Other predictions had floated Notre Dame’s standout running back Jeremiyah Love as a potential first-round pick for Kansas City, but Newell expressed skepticism about that scenario as well.

Instead, he confidently asserted that general manager Brett Veach is likely to prioritize either a defensive lineman or a wide receiver with the team’s first selection at No. 9 overall.

The reasoning behind this projection stems from Kansas City’s recent draft philosophy, which heavily favors positions that command premium salaries in free agency and have significant long-term impact on team performance.

Newell explained that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and defensive backs coach Dave Merritt have a long history of transforming late-round and undrafted players into reliable contributors in the secondary.

Because of this proven developmental success, Newell argued that using a top-ten pick on a safety would likely be an inefficient allocation of resources for Kansas City.

He added that the franchise is unlikely to expend a “once-a-decade” selection on a player who does not occupy a premium position in the NFL, further reinforcing the argument against selecting Downs or other defensive backs in the first round.

In practical terms, this means that safeties, running backs, and tight ends are all improbable selections for the Chiefs at No. 9, according to Newell’s analysis.

The reporter emphasized that past behavior is often predictive of future decisions, noting that since the selection of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City’s first-round picks have typically focused on cornerback, defensive end, wide receiver, and left tackle.

All of these positions share one key trait: they are premium roles in the NFL and command among the highest salaries in free agency, making them attractive investments for early-round selections.

Newell argued that this trend is likely to continue in 2026, with Veach sticking to positions that historically yield high value relative to draft cost and long-term team impact.

Salary-cap considerations also play a major role in this strategy, as the Chiefs face limited flexibility to restructure the roster outside of the draft due to financial constraints.

“The Chiefs will face significant pressure to hit on this year’s first-round pick, given current salary-cap restrictions and limited ability to reshape the roster beyond their draft class,” Newell explained, highlighting the importance of selecting a high-impact player at No. 9.

The expectation, therefore, is that a defensive lineman or wide receiver will top Kansas City’s wish list when the draft arrives in April.

Newell further illustrated his point with numbers, citing salary projections from Spotrac for the 2026 draft class.

The No. 9 overall pick is expected to make $5.6 million in its rookie season, increasing to $9.8 million by Year 4 of the contract, figures that represent exceptional value compared to free-agent equivalents.

While acquiring an above-average safety at a $9.8 million fourth-year salary is reasonable, the same amount invested in a wide receiver or defensive lineman with greater market demand could provide substantially higher returns for the team.

The 2026 draft class is expected to feature several elite pass rushers near the No. 9 slot, along with at least two or three highly-rated wide receivers, aligning perfectly with Kansas City’s strategic focus on premium positions.

Newell’s projection is therefore based on three key factors: Veach’s historical draft preferences, salary-cap efficiency, and the positional strengths available in the current draft pool.

At the defensive line, Newell identified several potential first-round targets, including Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr., Texas Tech’s David Bailey, Auburn’s Keldric Faulk, and Clemson’s Peter Woods.

The first three players are projected to play either defensive end or outside linebacker at the NFL level, depending on whether the team employs a 4-3 or 3-4 defensive scheme, while Woods is a natural defensive tackle.

The Chiefs reportedly value Bain’s inside-outside versatility, which would fit seamlessly into a defensive system that frequently rotates linemen and emphasizes scheme adaptability.

At wide receiver, Newell highlighted three consensus top prospects: Carnell Tate from Ohio State, Jordyn Tyson from Arizona State, and Makai Lemon from USC, with Lemon being the most likely option given the potential for the other two to be selected before No. 9.

Newell noted that Lemon has been described as “the draft class’ most QB-friendly receiver” by The Athletic’s Nick Baumgardner, making him an attractive choice for a team looking to maximize value for Patrick Mahomes.

Any of these seven prospects—four on the defensive line and three at wide receiver—would align with Veach’s historical approach to first-round drafting, emphasizing premium positions with high upside relative to cost.

The strategy reflects the Chiefs’ broader philosophy that early-round selections should be used to secure positions of maximum long-term impact, rather than filling positions where player development or mid-to-late round talent can provide sufficient depth.

Veach’s approach demonstrates a belief in draft surplus value, where hitting on a premium position in the first round yields greater dividends than selecting players at positions with historically lower long-term returns.

By prioritizing these positions, Kansas City can continue to build a roster that balances elite talent with salary efficiency, a necessity given the team’s current financial and cap constraints.

The Chiefs’ front office, led by Veach, Andy Reid, and team president Mark Donovan, will closely evaluate prospects’ fit with the system, potential immediate contribution, and long-term value in structuring the 2026 roster.

As the draft approaches, fans and analysts alike will scrutinize every move, speculation, and rumor surrounding Kansas City’s No. 9 pick, knowing that this selection could have a significant impact on the team’s competitive trajectory.

With Mahomes recovering from injury and an evolving coaching staff, the pressure is heightened to select a player who can immediately influence the team’s performance while also providing long-term positional stability.

The 2026 NFL Draft will therefore be a defining moment for the Chiefs, balancing short-term needs with strategic, financially-savvy decisions that could determine success for years to come.

Ultimately, Newell’s reporting provides a clear framework for expectations: Kansas City will almost certainly prioritize a defensive lineman or wide receiver at No. 9, consistent with the franchise’s recent drafting patterns and commitment to premium positions.

While rumors about Caleb Downs, Jeremiyah Love, and other high-profile prospects will continue to circulate, the evidence strongly points toward a selection that maximizes both value and positional impact for the 2026 Chiefs.

As fans descend on the draft and analysts pour over scouting reports, the league will be watching closely to see if Kansas City’s strategy pays dividends, ensuring that the No. 9 pick contributes meaningfully to both the 2026 season and beyond.

In a league where first-round hits can define the next decade, the Chiefs’ decision-making at No. 9 will be scrutinized as both a tactical and financial masterstroke—or a critical missed opportunity.