The Houston Astros are staring down a familiar crossroads – and if history is any indication, they’re at risk of repeating the same costly pattern. With Framber Valdez expected to depart, the team could be adding another name to a growing list of homegrown stars who’ve left the franchise in their prime.

Carlos Correa, George Springer, and potentially Alex Bregman have all walked, and now the focus shifts to Hunter Brown. If the Astros want to avoid another high-profile exit, they need to act – and fast.

There’s a cautionary tale playing out up in Detroit, and Houston should be watching closely. Tarik Skubal has blossomed into one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, but the Tigers never locked him in early.

Now, they’re paying the price – or at least bracing to. Skubal is entering the final year of arbitration and has filed for a jaw-dropping $32 million salary.

The Tigers countered at $19 million, setting up a high-stakes arbitration battle that could set a new precedent. Regardless of how that shakes out, the writing’s on the wall: Skubal is likely gone after 2026.

That’s the kind of situation the Astros need to avoid with Brown.

What makes this even more pressing is just how closely Brown’s early career mirrors Skubal’s. Both pitchers took some time to settle in, both hit arbitration at similar ages, and both are now represented by Scott Boras – a name that tends to signal big contracts and tough negotiations. While Skubal is a lefty with a more significant injury history, the parallels are hard to ignore.

In his first year of arbitration, Skubal earned $2.65 million in 2024. Brown, in contrast, just settled with Houston for $5.71 million – a much bigger number that reflects his rising stock.

And now, with Skubal’s $32 million filing looming large, Brown’s own arbitration trajectory could skyrocket in the coming years. Even if he doesn’t match Skubal’s accolades – including multiple Cy Young Awards – his role at the top of Houston’s rotation puts him in a similar financial lane.

Arbitration salaries don’t move in a vacuum; they trend upward with the market, and Brown is well-positioned to cash in.

The problem for Houston? They may have already missed their window.

There was a time – not too long ago – when Brown seemed open to a long-term extension. Back then, he was still finding his footing, and the Astros had a chance to lock him in at a team-friendly rate.

But they opted to wait. Now, Brown has turned a corner on the mound, his value has surged, and he’s brought in Boras to guide his next moves.

That’s not just leverage – that’s a power shift.

There’s still time for the Astros to get something done, but the clock is ticking. The longer they wait, the more expensive Brown becomes – and the more likely it is that he’ll follow the same path as so many others who’ve worn the Houston uniform.

If the Astros want to break the cycle, they need to move with urgency. Because if they don’t, they might be watching another ace walk out the door – and this time, they’ll have no one to blame but themselves.