The Texas Rangers made a bold move this offseason, shipping out Marcus Semien and bringing in Brandon Nimmo – a trade that raised eyebrows for more than just the names involved. On paper, it’s a swap that trades defensive stability for offensive upside. And if the early projections are any indication, it’s a risk that could pay off in a big way for Texas.
Now, there were whispers about Nimmo’s fit in the Mets’ clubhouse, but let’s be real: if he hits the way the Rangers hope he will and the team is in playoff contention, no one’s going to be worrying about locker room dynamics. Winning has a way of quieting that kind of noise.
According to FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, Semien is expected to post a 3.1 WAR in 2026, while Nimmo checks in at 2.6. On the surface, that 0.5 WAR gap might look like a win for New York.
But context matters. This isn’t just about who racks up more WAR – it’s about what each player brings to their new team, and what each team actually needs.
For the Rangers, the need is offense. Despite leading MLB in ERA last season (3.47), Texas finished a dead-even 81-81.
That’s not the kind of record you expect from a team with elite pitching and a top-tier defense, which they also had – third in the American League in Outs Above Average (27), trailing only Houston and Kansas City. The issue?
They simply couldn’t score enough runs.
That’s where Nimmo comes in. He’s projected to slash .256/.336/.428 with a 116 wRC+, 23 home runs, 71 RBI, and 10 stolen bases.
That’s a significant offensive boost for a lineup that struggled to support its stellar pitching staff. Semien, meanwhile, is projected for a .241/.314/.400 line, with 22 home runs, 74 RBI, and 10 steals – solid numbers, but not quite the same offensive punch.
Yes, losing Semien hurts on defense. He’s a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman and a steady presence up the middle. But the Rangers are betting that their overall defense remains strong enough to absorb that loss – and that the offensive gains from Nimmo will outweigh the defensive drop-off.
Bottom line: this trade wasn’t about maximizing individual WAR totals. It was about roster balance and addressing a glaring weakness. Nimmo may not be the all-around player Semien is, but he brings something Texas desperately needed – a bat that can lengthen the lineup and help turn quality starts into wins.
If the projections hold, and Nimmo delivers the kind of offensive production he’s capable of, the Rangers won’t be second-guessing this deal. They’ll be right in the thick of the playoff race – and that’s exactly where they want to be.
