Why Mets Fans Can Find Reasons to Trust Their Bullpen in 2026

Last season made it painfully clear: trusting the bullpen is never a sure thing. The New York Mets learned this the hard way, watching their most reliable late-inning arm leave in free agency and leave a void that the team still hopes to fill. Confidence in the bullpen doesn’t come automatically, and given past inconsistencies, it shouldn’t. But despite the uncertainty, there are reasons to believe this group can stabilize. Several key relievers already carry data points—both recent and historical—that suggest they can perform when the stakes are highest.

Here’s a closer look at why each Mets bullpen arm earns a measure of trust heading into the 2026 season:

Luke Weaver: Dominance in the Right Moments

Weaver’s 2025 season was a tale of two halves. Before his June 1 injury, he was nearly untouchable, posting a 1.05 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate over 25.2 innings. He was dominant, locking down high-leverage situations and giving the Mets confidence late in games.

After returning from injury, Weaver’s surface stats suffered. Over 39 innings, he posted a 5.31 ERA. Yet the underlying metrics told a different story: a 3.19 xERA suggests he pitched far better than the raw numbers implied. More importantly, when the game mattered most, Weaver delivered.

In high-leverage spots, opposing hitters managed just a .200 batting average with an 82 OPS+. In late-and-close situations, Weaver was even sharper, allowing just a .193 average and an 80 OPS+. That type of reliability is the exact quality Mets fans crave when the outcome hangs in the balance. Weaver remains a pitcher who can be counted on to execute in the moments that define games.

Devin Williams: Still a Strikeout Machine

Williams’ 2025 campaign was uncharacteristically rough. His 4.79 ERA was the highest of his career, a far cry from the period when he was comfortably among MLB’s elite relievers.

But the underlying tools that made Williams dominant never left. His strikeout, chase, and whiff rates all ranked in the top three percent of the league, and his pitches still induced weak contact consistently. The changeup held hitters to a .194 average with a .341 slugging percentage, while his fastball limited opponents to a .202 average and a .293 slugging percentage.

For the Mets, this means that while the results weren’t perfect last year, the profile of Williams’ success—his ability to make hitters miss and suppress hard contact—remains intact. Put simply: the raw ERA doesn’t erase the fact that Williams can still be a high-leverage weapon if deployed correctly.

AJ Minter: Matchup Weapon

Minter arrived in New York with a strong track record from Atlanta, but injuries limited him to just 13 appearances last season, leaving fans with very little to evaluate. Despite the small sample size, there’s reason to believe Minter can be trusted in the right scenarios.

His strength lies in his reverse splits: despite being a left-handed pitcher, Minter has historically neutralized right-handed hitters. During his time with the Braves, he held righties to a .222 batting average with a 71 OPS+ in 2022, followed by .210/.56 in 2023, and .184/.73 in 2024. These numbers indicate a consistent ability to suppress right-handed hitters, providing Mets manager Carlos Mendoza with a reliable weapon in matchup-heavy situations.

Brooks Raley: High-Leverage Specialist

After a strong 2023, Brooks Raley’s career took a hit with Tommy John surgery in 2024, and his 2025 season was his first real test post-recovery. Even coming off injury, Raley posted a 2.45 ERA across 25.2 innings while allowing only 14 hits and six walks and striking out 25 batters.

Where Raley truly shines is in high-leverage moments. In 2023, he held opponents to a .179 average with a 52 OPS+ in high-pressure situations; in 2025, that held steady at .182/.35. Raley’s ability to execute when the pressure is on makes him a dependable choice to shut down key innings. For fans concerned about experience and poise, Raley has repeatedly shown that he can handle the intensity of tight games.

Huascar Brazobán: Jam-Buster

Brazobán’s 2025 season was defined by situational effectiveness. His overall numbers were modest, but in critical moments—runners in scoring position and two-out scenarios—he excelled.

With runners in scoring position, Brazobán limited hitters to a .197 average with a 61 OPS+. With two outs in those spots, he tightened even further, allowing just a .152 average and a 44 OPS+. While not perfect, his ability to navigate pressure-packed situations makes him a valuable arm in the Mets’ bullpen. Used strategically, Brazobán can be a reliable option to end innings or escape jams, a skill that often determines the difference in close games.

Conclusion: Data Over Doubt

It’s no secret that the Mets’ bullpen faced challenges in 2025. Injuries, departures, and inconsistency all contributed to a lack of late-game confidence. Yet when examining the underlying data, the picture is far more encouraging.

Weaver delivers in high-leverage situations, Williams still makes hitters miss, Minter provides matchup versatility, Raley thrives under pressure, and Brazobán can close out tight innings. While trust isn’t guaranteed, the tools and historical performance suggest that this group can be counted on more than last season might have indicated.

For the Mets, the key will be usage: deploying arms in the right scenarios, monitoring workload, and leaning on past performance to guide decisions. Fans may still be cautious, but they can now point to concrete reasons to feel optimistic about New York’s bullpen heading into 2026.