The Houston Astros made a quietly bold move this offseason, signing Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai to a uniquely structured three-year deal that’s heavy on incentives and includes opt-outs after each season. It’s the kind of deal that signals both opportunity and risk – and it may end up defining general manager Dana Brown’s tenure in Houston.

Let’s start with the upside. For a team working within clear payroll constraints, Brown managed to land a 27-year-old starter with real upside.

Imai’s market didn’t develop the way some expected earlier in the winter, which opened the door for Houston to step in and get creative. The Astros are banking on their proven ability to develop pitching talent – something they’ve done consistently over the last decade – to help Imai tap into his potential.

And there’s plenty to like. Imai brings a deep pitch mix, experience from Japan’s top league, and the kind of competitive makeup that’s often hard to quantify but easy to spot once a guy gets on the mound. If he clicks, he could slot into the top half of the Astros’ rotation and provide real value on a deal that’s team-friendly if things go well – and flexible if they don’t.

But here’s where things get complicated.

The Imai signing likely means changes are coming elsewhere on the roster, with infielder Isaac Paredes looking like the odd man out. There’s growing expectation that he’ll be moved before Opening Day.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing – roster turnover is part of the business – but it does raise the stakes for Brown. Every move now feels like it carries a little more weight.

That’s because Brown’s seat is warming. After a disappointing finish to last season, there were questions about his future. Owner Jim Crane didn’t exactly offer a resounding vote of confidence – Brown is back for 2026, but the messaging around his return was more contractual than enthusiastic.

The same goes for manager Joe Espada. Both men are under pressure to deliver, and the front office’s quiet at the trade deadline last year didn’t help matters. Houston stumbled down the stretch, and the sense around the league is that the organization is at a crossroads.

That puts Imai in a spotlight that goes beyond his own performance. If he struggles – or if the Astros miss the playoffs again – this signing could be viewed not just as a misstep, but as the final straw.

Brown has been given the chance to course-correct after last year’s deadline misfires. If his answer doesn’t pan out, it’s hard to see ownership sticking with the current regime.

It’s a high-stakes bet, no doubt. But that’s the nature of the business when expectations are sky-high and margins are thin. The Astros are still built to contend – but the moves they make now will determine if they stay in that conversation, or if a new front office is calling the shots a year from now.