The Chicago Cubs are facing a significant payroll reduction heading into the 2025 season. After finishing last season with a taxable payroll of $234 million, the Cubs’ projected payroll for Opening Day 2025 is expected to drop to around $182 million. This steep decline has raised concerns, especially as the team looks to remain competitive in the National League Central. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Cubs are unlikely to pursue top-tier free agents unless they can first unload some of their payroll, including first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger.

Bellinger’s situation is a key factor in the Cubs’ decision-making. With a $27.5 million salary due in 2025 and a $5 million buyout for 2026, it’s been reported that no teams have shown significant interest in trading for him. The Cubs will likely need to absorb much of his contract if they intend to move him, further complicating the trade process. This financial dilemma limits the Cubs’ ability to make major acquisitions and improve their roster through high-profile free-agent signings.

The Cubs’ inability to make a significant impact in free agency leaves them in a difficult position, especially as they aim to improve from their 83-win seasons in 2022 and 2023. While the team has made some moves, such as trading for pitcher Eli Morgan, these are seen as marginal improvements that will not be enough to push the Cubs past the middle of the pack in the league. Given the franchise’s current trajectory, it’s clear that simply tweaking the roster with minor changes is no longer sufficient to satisfy both the fanbase and management’s long-term goals.

Chicago’s rebuilding phase, which began after the 2021 trade deadline when the team dealt away key players from their 2016 World Series championship squad, seemed to show promise last season. However, the Cubs have been unable to break through and achieve consistent success. Their struggles to contend for a playoff spot in the past two seasons indicate that the team needs a stronger, more aggressive strategy to improve. Unfortunately, the payroll cuts and focus on mid-tier moves suggest they might not be in a position to contend for the postseason in 2025.

The Cubs’ future strategy, according to Nightengale, could set them back even further if they continue with their current approach of shedding payroll and settling for marginal improvements. While operating under the luxury tax threshold may help the team’s finances, it would also hinder their ability to build a competitive roster. As a large-market team with high expectations, the Cubs should aim to be a postseason contender, not a team content with hovering around .500. Moving forward, they must reassess their approach to team-building, as merely treading water is unlikely to satisfy the franchise’s goals or their fanbase.