Trevor Rogers Enters 2026 Season as Baltimore Orioles’ Rotation Ace

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers enters the 2026 season riding high off a dominant 2025 campaign, but questions remain about which version of the 28-year-old left-hander will take the mound. After years of inconsistency, Rogers is now positioned to be the anchor of a revamped Orioles rotation, but his upcoming contract year adds intrigue to his outlook.

Contract Year Spotlight: What’s Next for Rogers?

Rogers is entering the final season of club control, and an extension has yet to be finalized. MLB.com’s Thomas Harrigan named Rogers one of the 10 most interesting contract years to watch in 2026, citing the stark contrasts in his performance over the past five seasons.

“The past five years have been a roller coaster for Rogers, leaving the lefty with much to prove,” Harrigan wrote. “Is he closer to the pitcher who performed like a frontline arm in 2021 (2.64 ERA/2.55 FIP) and again in ’25 (1.81 ERA/2.82 FIP)? Or do his 2022-24 numbers (5.09 ERA/4.42 FIP) better reflect who he is? His walk year could reveal a lot.”

With free agency on the horizon, Rogers’ 2026 performance could define both his next contract and his legacy in Baltimore.

Journey to Baltimore

Rogers was acquired by the Orioles in a 2024 trade deadline deal that sent outfielder Kyle Stowers and infielder Connor Norby to the Miami Marlins. At the time of the trade, Rogers held a 2-9 record with a 4.53 ERA, but Baltimore recognized his potential as a future frontline starter.

Initially, Rogers struggled after the trade, posting a 7.11 ERA in four starts and being optioned to Triple-A Norfolk. His early career was marked by inconsistency, injury setbacks, and questions about his durability.

2025 Season Turnaround

Rogers opened the 2025 season on the injured list with a right knee subluxation, returning briefly to Triple-A before rejoining Baltimore as the 27th man for a May 24 doubleheader. In his first start back at Fenway Park, he allowed just two hits over 6.1 scoreless innings. After a brief return to Norfolk, he was recalled permanently in mid-June.

From there, Rogers did not leave the Orioles rotation, finishing 2025 with:

• 9-3 record

• 1.81 ERA

• 0.90 WHIP

• 5.5 bWAR over 18 starts

Rogers’ performance earned him the 2025 Louis M. Hatter Most Valuable Oriole Award from local media and ninth place in AL Cy Young voting, despite a limited number of starts.

Key to Success: Velocity and Mechanics

One of the biggest factors in Rogers’ resurgence was the resurgence of his fastball, which had averaged a career-low 91.9 mph in 2024. Rogers credited an offseason trip to Driveline, where coaches identified a loss of lower body strength as the primary cause of his velocity dip.

Past back issues had led Rogers to avoid certain workouts, reducing the overall strength in his legs and limiting his ability to generate power in his delivery. The new program focused on building lower-body strength and improving mechanics, allowing him to throw in the 93–95 mph range in 2025.

Enhanced Pitch Arsenal

Rogers’ improved velocity translated into greater effectiveness for his offspeed pitches, creating a more deceptive arsenal:

• Fastball: +16 run value

• Changeup: +7 run value

• Slider: +4 run value

• Sweeper: +3 run value

The combination of velocity and deception led to strong underlying metrics:

• Chase rate: 29.9%

• Groundball rate: 46.4%

• Strikeout rate: 24.3%

• FIP: 2.28

These numbers suggest that Rogers’ 1.81 ERA was supported by skill, rather than luck, making him a legitimate candidate to anchor Baltimore’s rotation in 2026.

What 2026 Holds for Rogers and the Orioles

Expectations are high for Rogers, but a repeat of 2025’s dominance may be unrealistic. Still, his improved fastball and effective offspeed pitches provide optimism that he can be counted on as the team’s ace.

Barring injuries or major roster changes, the Orioles’ starting rotation in 2026 is expected to include:

1. Trevor Rogers (LHP) – Ace

2. Kyle Bradish (RHP) – Young, emerging talent

3. Shane Baz (RHP) – Newly acquired, high strikeout potential

4. Zach Eflin (RHP) – Veteran stability

5. Dean Kremer (RHP) – Solid backend starter

This rotation mix pairs veteran experience with high-upside youth, giving Baltimore a potentially dominant starting five for the upcoming season.

Contract Implications

2026 is a critical year for Rogers. A strong season could:

• Lead to a lucrative long-term extension with Baltimore

• Elevate his market value for free agency

• Solidify his status as the team’s rotation leader

Conversely, any regression or injury could create uncertainty about his long-term role in Baltimore’s plans.

Final Thoughts

Trevor Rogers enters 2026 as a cornerstone of the Orioles’ pitching staff. After a roller-coaster career and a dominant 2025 campaign, all eyes are on the 28-year-old southpaw to determine which version of him will define his future.

If Rogers can maintain his velocity, command, and offspeed effectiveness, he could anchor a deep playoff-ready rotation, supporting Baltimore’s pursuit of AL East contention. With Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer alongside him, the Orioles may have finally built a rotation capable of sustaining success.

Rogers’ 2026 performance will not only define his career trajectory but could also set the tone for Baltimore’s next decade, making him one of the most intriguing players to watch in the upcoming MLB season.