Astros 2026 Outlook: Breakouts Brewing, But Not Everyone’s Trending Up

In a season where the Houston Astros were expected to take a step back, it was the breakout performances of Hunter Brown and Jeremy Peña that kept the club competitive deeper into 2025 than many anticipated. Heading into 2026, the Astros are once again banking on internal development to stay in the hunt – not just because it’s helpful, but because it’s necessary.

With limited financial flexibility and a roster in transition, Houston needs a few more players to take that next leap. The good news?

There are some intriguing candidates. The bad news?

Not everyone’s trending in the right direction.

Let’s break down two players who could be poised for a breakout – and two who might be running out of time.

🔼 Breakout Watch: Two Astros Who Could Make the Leap in 2026

Cristian Javier, RHP

The Astros spent much of the offseason searching for a reliable No. 2 starter behind Framber Valdez, eventually acquiring Mike Burrows in hopes he could fill that role. But the answer might have been in-house all along.

Cristian Javier returned from Tommy John surgery in 2025 after a 14-month recovery and was quickly reinserted into the rotation. On the surface, the results were shaky – a 4.62 ERA doesn’t exactly scream “breakout candidate.” But dig a little deeper, and the picture starts to change.

Javier’s left-on-base percentage sat at a wildly unsustainable 59.4%, a number that typically regresses toward the league average (around 72-75%) over time. His expected ERA, according to Baseball Savant, was a much more respectable 3.41 – a sign that his actual results were dragged down by some bad luck and timing. He also posted a .212 expected batting average against and kept his hard-hit rate to a manageable 38.3%.

Those are encouraging signs, especially for a pitcher still regaining strength after a major surgery. With a full offseason to rebuild his arm and refine his mechanics, Javier has the tools to re-establish himself as a key rotation piece – potentially even the No. 2 starter Houston’s been searching for.

Cam Smith, INF

Cam Smith’s rise through the Astros’ system was fast – perhaps too fast. Drafted in 2024, he broke camp with the big-league club just a year later, all while learning a new position on the fly. That’s a lot to ask of a 22-year-old, and the growing pains showed.

Offensively, Smith finished 2025 with a 90 wRC+, indicating he was about 10% below league average at the plate. But context matters here.

From May 1 through June 30, Smith looked like a future star, slashing .305/.370/.451 and spraying line drives at a 28% clip. That stretch showcased his raw tools – elite athleticism and violent bat speed that ranks in the 84th percentile across the league.

As pitchers adjusted, Smith hit a wall. But that’s part of the process for young hitters.

Now, with a full offseason to recalibrate and a better understanding of what big-league pitching looks like, Smith is in a strong position to take the next step. He’ll need to earn his spot again in spring training, but if he does, don’t be surprised if he sticks – and thrives.

🔽 Treading Water: Two Astros Who May Be Running Out of Time

Zach Cole, OF

Zach Cole got a brief look in 2025 and made a strong first impression, hitting .255/.327/.553 over 15 games. It was a small sample, but enough to keep him in the conversation as a potential impact bat – especially after the Astros traded Jacob Melton, effectively handing Cole a clearer path to a roster spot.

But here’s the issue: the strikeouts. Cole’s power is legit, but the swing-and-miss is just as real.

In his short big-league stint, he struck out 38.5% of the time. That wasn’t a fluke – he posted nearly identical strikeout rates in Double-A over the past two seasons (38.3% in 2024, 36.3% in 2025).

That level of swing-and-miss is difficult to sustain, even for players with plus power.

At some point, pitchers are going to find the holes in his swing and exploit them. And unless Cole makes significant adjustments, that power won’t matter much if he can’t make consistent contact.

He turns 26 in August, and while that’s not old by any means, the clock is ticking. If the strikeout issues persist, his window to become a regular contributor could start to close.

Jesús Sánchez, OF

Jesús Sánchez arrived in Houston at the trade deadline last season, and let’s be honest – it didn’t go well. He hit just .199 with a .269 OBP and a .342 slugging percentage, numbers that don’t exactly inspire confidence heading into 2026.

Some fans might still be clinging to the hope that Sánchez’s underlying metrics – which have always been intriguing – will eventually translate into production. But there are a couple of red flags that continue to hold him back.

First, his launch angle. In 2025, Sánchez ranked in the 10th percentile in “launch angle sweet spot” percentage – essentially, how often he hits the ball at an angle that produces damage.

That’s a problem, especially for a player who’s supposed to bring thump to the lineup. Combine that with a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone, and you’ve got a hitter who’s making weak contact far too often.

Could he fix it? Sure – but it would require a major overhaul to his swing path and approach.

And even if he does bounce back to his career norms, he’s still been more or less a league-average hitter. That’s not a disaster, but it’s not enough to lock down a long-term role on a team with playoff aspirations.

If the adjustments don’t come quickly, Sánchez could find himself slipping further down the depth chart.

Final Thoughts

The Astros are entering 2026 in a bit of a transitional phase. They’re still talented, still dangerous, but they’re also relying more heavily on internal growth than they have in years past.

Players like Cristian Javier and Cam Smith represent the upside – the kind of internal development that can keep a contender afloat. But others, like Zach Cole and Jesús Sánchez, are at risk of falling behind.

With spring training just around the corner, the margin for error is shrinking. The Astros don’t need everyone to break out – but they can’t afford too many misses either.