“He Can’t Seriously Compete with the Top Tier of MVP Candidates”: NFL Expert Gets Brutally Honest on Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
“He Can’t Seriously Compete with the Top Tier of MVP Candidates”: NFL Expert Gets Brutally Honest on Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
NFL quarterback Patrick Mahomes began the season positioned as a perennial MVP contender, but that outlook has shifted dramatically as the Kansas City Chiefs’ struggles have mounted.
With the Chiefs now battling to stay in the playoff race, league analysts agree that his standing among the top candidates has faded.
Recent evaluations place Mahomes outside the upper tier of contenders, emphasizing that his production no longer compensates for the team’s uneven record.
Although some efficiency numbers remain strong, they fall short of what quarterbacks on winning teams are delivering.
His latest outing, marked by inaccurate throws and costly turnovers, widened the separation between him and the frontrunners.
Observers have also noted the disappearance of the trademark rhythm and creativity that once defined Kansas City’s offense.
Opponents are disrupting his timing with more consistency, forcing the Chiefs into long, stagnant drives.
One analyst even framed Mahomes’ recent play as resembling that of an average starter, underscoring how far his form has slipped over the last month.
The MVP odds mirror the reality on the field. Quarterbacks leading surging teams have strengthened their cases, while Mahomes has plunged down the board following weeks of inconsistency.
Even his brightest moments have been overshadowed by the Chiefs’ growing number of losses, which historically carry significant weight in MVP voting.
NFL Analysis Gets Real on Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ MVP Case
Mahomes’s case to win MVP this season isn’t as strong as other candidates in the league. This is detailed more in an analysis by Bill Barnwheel for ESPN.Mahomes is still fourth in the league in Total QBR, which doesn’t punish him for one of the league’s worst drop rates and rewards his impact as a scrambler, but he can’t seriously compete with the top tier of MVP candidates. It would take four near-perfect games and a miraculous run to the wild card from the Chiefs to get Mahomes back in the MVP discussion. And while that’s always possible, it’s far more likely that the Chiefs stunningly miss the playoffs for the first time in Mahomes’ career.
Additional league chatter suggests that his drop is tied directly to Kansas City’s record, as MVP voters almost always reward quarterbacks steering winning seasons.
With the Chiefs falling below expectations, Mahomes has been left with virtually no margin for recovery. Only a flawless finish and a remarkable team turnaround could revive his candidacy.
As the regular season winds down, Mahomes still possesses elite talent, but the context around him has changed the conversation.
For now, he remains outside the top tier of contenders, overshadowed by quarterbacks driving more successful campaigns while the Chiefs search for answers.
