REPORT: With an eye toward sustained contention, the Twins must approach the offseason with a clear vision. This mock plan explores realistic roster moves and organizational priorities that could set Minnesota up for success in 2026. The margin for error has never been smaller.

MLB Network

The Twins aren’t going to be big spenders this winter, but it at least sounds like they aren’t looking to tear down their roster any further.

The current indications are that Minnesota does not plan on trading any of its three veteran stars — Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez — and that Derek Falvey has been granted a limited budget to build around the team’s core.

How much does Falvey have to spend?

A sourced report from The Athletic’s Dan Hayes indicates that the Twins have around $20 million to use on additions, which would bring their payroll to $115 million or so. That’s a notable step down from the Twins’ payroll in recent years, but that’s a big-picture conversation for another day.

For now, let’s take a stab at projecting a Twins offseason with that payroll in mind. We’ll make some affordable additions at spots we know they plan to target — which include first base and the bullpen — and put the team in position to contend for an AL Central title in 2026.

Step 1: Clear extra payroll space

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We’d like to have a little more than $20 million to work with as we wade into the free agent waters. So the first thing we’re going to do is free up a bit more room by parting with a couple veterans coming off underwhelming seasons in outfielder Trevor Larnach and starting pitcher Bailey Ober.

It was a surprise when the Twins tendered Larnach a contract recently, given his mediocrity throughout his career and the fact that the organization is not short on lefty-hitting outfielders, both at the major-league level and in the upper minors. We’re going to deal him for a mid-level prospect, replace him on the 40-man roster with a minimum-salaried player, and free up another $2.5 million.

Then we’re going to trade Ober, even though we’ll be selling low on a guy coming off a poor season. Some team with deeper pockets can try to get the 2023-24 version of Ober back, while we free up some money and an extra rotation spot for a young player. Beyond Ryan and Lopez, we’ll need three starters to emerge from a spring competition between Zebby Matthews, Simeon Woods Richardson, Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, and David Festa (and maybe Andrew Morris and Kendry Rojas).

Trading Ober for a mid-level prospect gives us another $6 million to spend. We’re now at a budget of $28.5 million after shedding a couple redundant, mediocre veterans we can’t afford under these ownership-imposed payroll constraints.

Step 2: Sign a first baseman

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A recent report from Hayes tells us the Twins have interest in free agent first basemen Josh Bell, Ryan O’Hearn, and Rhys Hoskins. Of that group, Hoskins probably makes the most sense because he won’t break the bank and the Twins could use more right-handed thump in their lineup. He isn’t the player he was with the Phillies before missing the 2023 season with a torn ACL, but he’s been solid for the Brewers over the past couple seasons.

We’re going to give Hoskins a two-year, $15 million deal to come be our primary first baseman, which will relegate Kody Clemens to a more fitting role as a utility guy who can mix in at various spots, including first base. That gives us $21 million left to spend.

Step 3: Sign three decent relievers

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The most glaring area where the Twins need to add is their bullpen, which they tore down to the studs at this year’s trade deadline. They’ll need a mix of veteran additions and young players — perhaps including some starter-to-reliever conversions — to join holdovers like Cole Sands and Justin Topa.

The first thing we’re going to do is bring back Taylor Rogers, who was with the Twins from 2016-21, to be our top lefty. At 35 years old, he should be attainable on a one-year, $4 million deal.

Then we’re going to add a couple right-handed options who could be in line for bounce-back seasons. We’ll go with one-year, $5 million deals for both Hunter Harvey (31 years old, has dealt with some injuries in recent years) and Tommy Kahnle (36 years old, coming off a down season with Detroit). Those three additions will help at least raise the floor of our bullpen.

Step 4: Add one more bat who can play shortstop

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With our final $8 million, we’re going for another reunion. We’re bringing back Willi Castro, who was traded to the Cubs before the deadline this year. He didn’t do much in Chicago, but Castro was the Twins’ team MVP in 2024 and should be re-energized by a return to Minnesota. He’s valuable as a switch-hitting utility guy who can play all over the field, and he also gives us another option at shortstop if Brooks Lee doesn’t figure it out with the bat.

The results

After spending $28.5 million on five additions, here’s our projected Opening Day lineup, bench, rotation, and bullpen.

Lineup

2B Luke Keaschall
RF Matt Wallner
CF Byron Buxton
3B Royce Lewis
LF Willi Castro
1B Rhys Hoskins
C Ryan Jeffers
DH Kody Clemens
SS Brooks Lee

Bench

IF Edouard Julien
OF Alan Roden
OF James Outman
UTIL Austin Martin
C Alex Jackson

This assumes that prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Gabriel Gonzalez begin the year in St. Paul, but we’re open to the possibility of them breaking camp with the big-league team.

Rotation

Joe Ryan
Pablo Lopez
Zebby Matthews
Mick Abel
Taj Bradley

Bullpen

Cole Sands
Tommy Kahnle
Hunter Harvey
Taylor Rogers (LHP)
Justin Topa
Eric Orze
Kody Funderburk (LHP)
John Klein

That’s a roster that might just be able to go win a weak division. It’s going to require good health and more than a few bounce-back or breakout performances — and the bullpen definitely still isn’t great — but that’s the reality of working within these ownership-imposed spending limits.