The Dallas Cowboys will travel to Detroit to play the Lions at Ford Field on Thursday.

This game features a rare schedule quirk for a Thursday night: This is not a short week for the Lions and Cowboys because both played on Thanksgiving. The Lions played in the early afternoon game, and the Cowboys played in the mid-afternoon game.

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So the usual short-week angles to attack week to week are not factors here. Let’s evaluate the spread, total and some player props.

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3)

To no surprise, the entire betting market has this game priced at Lions -3. The three in NFL betting is by far the most important number for handicapping sides or totals because of its outcome frequency. Just a half point move on or off the three is worth 22 cents of vig. When a game is priced at this number, it is usually a consensus line, or the vig is abnormal on other books (maybe -2.5 at -125 and +2.5 at. +105).

When a new batch of odds comes out Sunday night for the following week, I do not go in order of handicapping each game. I go right to the games priced around 3 and try to find if there is an early-week angle to get a good number. In my personal betting, I made a bet on this game on Sunday night just after midnight (technically Monday morning). Because it will impact how I want to play this game ATS, my bet was on Dallas Cowboys +3 (+100).

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The market has seen the price increase on the Cowboys side. BetMGM now prices the Cowboys +3 at -115. This line is going to stay on this number, so timing the best price in odds is the end goal here. I personally wanted to back the Cowboys because of the injuries the Lions have sustained on offense.

On Thanksgiving day, star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown left the game in the first quarter with an ankle injury and did not return after playing 6% of the snaps. He was deemed week to week and is not going on IR. I do not expect St. Brown to be active for this game.

Also missing are Lions TE Sam LaPorta and backup TE Brock Wright. Jared Goff is an efficient quarterback who relies on timing with his receivers. Timing and chemistry go hand in hand — the plug-and-play or next-man-up mentality is not as suitable for this offense. The Lions are going to have to rely on their Sonic and Knuckles combination in the run game, while going against a Cowboys team that bolstered its defensive line with the addition of Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline.

If you want to back the Lions, do it now at -3 (-105). However, I prefer the Cowboys. In what has been a one-way market toward the Cowboys, I do expect Lions action to inevitably come in.

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In the NFL, there is generally some point of market resistance in every side and total. As someone who would want Cowboys or nothing, my recommendation is to wait until kickoff to try to get better than Cowboys +3 (-115).

Bet: Cowboys +3 (-115) or better right before kickoff

Game total: 54.5

This is the second-highest total of the 2025 season, only trailing the Week 7 clash between the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys that had a pregame closing line of 55.5 … and went over!

Similar to that spread, we have seen one-way action on this line toward the over. The consensus open was 53.5, and now every sportsbook has this at 54.5. The crossing of the number 54 represents the 11th-most common NFL game-total outcome, but it is more fair to evaluate common game totals in ranges, and for really high-scoring games this only trails 51. I am a bit hesitant to chase this change because 54 could be important here.

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So for the first time this season, my Thursday play is going into the derivative market to play a team total. Because of the Lions’ injuries and I like the Cowboys as underdogs, I’m taking the Cowboys to cover their team total. I expect the combination of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson and Javonte Williams to be too much for the Lions. QB Dak Prescott is quietly having another MVP-caliber campaign, and I am still a buyer on this offense and will be for this game.

Bet: Cowboys team total over 26.5 (-110)

Player props

Isaac TeSlaa anytime TD (+200): I recommended this wager earlier in the week. TeSlaa was the primary beneficiary of St. Brown’s departure, playing 94% of offensive snaps last week against the Packers. BetMGM has this at the best price anywhere in the market at +200, and because of the high total, two-plus TDs at 20-1 is also intriguing. I would split up the wager: half a unit on +200 and a .05-unit wager on the long shot. This means betting a total of .55 units to win two units if TeSlaa scores twice. He has six catches this season, but three of them are touchdowns. He is a big wide receiver and a red-zone threat who is going to get a lot of snaps in a suspected shootout.

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Javonte Williams over 15.5 rush attempts (-130): Williams started this season very hot, and his continued dominance of the Cowboys’ backfield has remained. In recent weeks his rush attempts have seen a surge. His last three games: 17, 20 and 22 attempts. Williams sits at 955 total yards this season and likely eclipses the 1,000 mark in this game against the Lions, who are 11th in rushing yards allowed. No matter the level of competition, Williams has thrived this year. Going against top-10 run defenses, Williams has averaged 20.5 attempts, 126 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Because of the possible game script, the Cowboys’ scoring, a fast-paced game and some concern about the Lions’ offense, the Cowboys might find themselves with a run script. This is worth a half-unit play as well.