Is Alex Bregman Really a Bargain This Offseason? Let’s Break It Down

The Houston Astros are heading into the offseason with a clear directive: spend wisely. With a limited budget and multiple roster holes to patch, Houston won’t be handing out multiple big-money deals. They might have room for one splash – likely a frontline starter – but beyond that, expect them to be active in the value aisle.

That brings us to a name that’s been making the rounds in offseason chatter: Alex Bregman. Yes, that Alex Bregman – the two-time All-Star, former MVP finalist, and long-time cornerstone of the Astros infield.

After turning down a six-year, $156 million extension from Houston and later rejecting a $171.5 million offer from Detroit, Bregman is back on the market. And according to some, he might now be – wait for it – a bargain.

Let’s unpack that.

The Case for Bregman as a “Bargain”

The idea here hinges on value relative to cost – not just the sticker price. It’s about how much production a team can expect to get per dollar spent.

In Bregman’s case, his 2025 campaign showed signs of life after a down year in 2024. He posted 3.5 WAR despite missing over a month and a half with a quad injury.

That’s a solid foundation, especially if you believe he can stay healthy and maintain that level of production.

The projection models that see Bregman as a potential bargain are banking on a few things:

• **Plate discipline that ages well. ** Bregman’s game has long been built on elite pitch recognition.

He doesn’t chase much, and he’s selective at the plate, which tends to translate well as players get older.

• **Defensive stability.

** He’s been a reliable presence at third base, even if he’s not winning Gold Gloves.

• **High baseball IQ.

** Bregman’s approach to the game – his understanding of situations, his preparation – has always been a separator.

So if you believe he can stay in the 3-4 WAR range for at least the front half of a six-year deal, and that his bat and glove don’t fall off a cliff, then maybe, maybe, you can squint and see the value in a $171-$182 million contract.

But let’s not get carried away.

The Red Flags Are There

Bregman’s walk rate – one of the pillars of his offensive value – took a noticeable dip in 2024, falling to a career-worst 6.9%. He did bounce back in 2025 to 10.3%, but that’s still below his career average of 11.8%.

That’s not nothing. A declining walk rate could be a sign that pitchers are challenging him more – or that he’s not seeing the ball quite as well.

Then there’s the question of power. Bregman’s never been a pure slugger, and while he’s always maximized his contact quality by hunting pitches he can drive, his average exit velocities have hovered around league average.

That’s fine when you’re 28 or 29. But at 32, entering the back half of your prime?

That bat speed doesn’t usually tick up.

Defensively, the numbers are trending in the wrong direction. In 2025, Bregman logged just one defensive run saved and three outs above average over 972.1 innings.

The year before, in more innings, he posted six DRS and eight OAA – a significant drop-off. That doesn’t mean he’s a liability just yet, but it’s something to monitor, especially considering his history with lower-body injuries.

Third base is a reaction-heavy position, and once those legs start to go, it can get dicey fast.

What’s the Real Value?

Here’s the thing: Bregman is still a good player. He’s smart, battle-tested, and capable of anchoring a lineup.

He’s also a leader in the clubhouse and knows how to win. That has value – real value – especially for a team trying to take that next step or stabilize a young roster.

But calling him a bargain? That’s a stretch.

At $171-$182 million over six years, you’re not paying for upside. You’re paying for consistency and hoping that the decline phase doesn’t come too soon.

If Bregman ages gracefully and maintains a steady 3-WAR pace for four years, the deal might break even. If he outperforms that, then yes, you’ve got surplus value.

But there’s risk – and quite a bit of it – in assuming that kind of performance from a player whose key skills are already showing signs of erosion.

Final Thoughts

Bregman might not be a superstar anymore, but he’s still a strong contributor. He’ll help a team win games, and he’ll bring a level of professionalism and competitiveness that’s tough to quantify. But let’s not confuse “still valuable” with “undervalued.”

For a team like Houston, who knows Bregman better than anyone, the decision to move on might have already been made. And for teams looking to add him now, the question isn’t whether Bregman can still play – it’s whether he can live up to a contract that pays him like a top-tier third baseman into his late 30s.

That’s not a bargain. That’s a calculated bet.