Drew Smith has been one of the Mets’ most consistent bullpen arms since making his big league debut in 2018. Over the course of 191 regular season appearances, Smith has pitched to a 3.48 ERA with 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings.

But while his overall numbers are solid (a career 2.0 WAR), Smith has dealt with a number of injury issues that have plagued him throughout his career. The righty underwent Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2019, causing him to miss that entire season and a good chunk of 2020, when he pitched in just eight games.

This past season, Smith was off to a strong start with a 3.06 ERA in 19 games, but another elbow injury forced him to have his second career Tommy John surgery in July, with this one also including the internal brace procedure.

With a reported recovery timeline of 12-18 months, there’s a decent chance that Smith misses all of the 2025 season, though perhaps he could make a return towards the tail end of the year.

So, with all of that in mind, would it be worth it for the Mets to bring him back and basically stash him away for 2026? Let’s dig in…

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO LET SMITH LEAVE

It’s impossible to ignore Smith’s injury history when talking about bringing him back, and you now have to factor in that signing him this offseason would mean you’re basically paying him to rehab for most of, if not all of, 2025.

Even if Smith is ready to get back on the mound in, say, August or September, he’s going to need a fairly substantial ramp-up period to get back to being ready to pitch in a major league game.

Also, if history repeats itself, the last time Smith came back from Tommy John and pitched in the second half of the season was in 2020, and the results, while a small sample size, weren’t great. Smith pitched 7.0 innings that season, allowing six runs (five earned) on six hits with seven strikeouts, two walks, and two homers allowed. Rust is obviously expected any time a pitcher comes back from major surgery, but if the Mets are in the thick of a playoff race, as they were this past season, having a shaky Smith in the bullpen could be a liability.

Health aside, there are also a few other red flags with Smith, including his rising walk rate (4.6 walks per nine innings in each of the last two seasons) and WHIP (1.402 in 2023, 1.528 in 2024). Smith struck out a career-best 11.7 hitters per nine innings last season, but he often had to work out of jams that he himself created via walks.

Smith has also seen his average fastball velocity dip, from 96.3 MPH in 2018 to 94.7 MPH last season, and it’s fair to wonder how a second major elbow surgery might make that average velocity drop even further.

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO BRING SMITH BACK

Finding reliable bullpen arms can be such a crapshoot. From year to year, relievers’ level of performance seems to fluctuate more than perhaps any other spot on the field. Right now, the Mets bullpen for 2025 will definitely feature Edwin Diaz and Reed Garrett, and probably Dedniel Nunez, but beyond those three, there is a lot of uncertainty. Sean Reid-Foley is arbitration eligible, but he’s also dealt with his own health issues over the years, including missing a good chunk of last season with a shoulder impingement.

All of that is to say that it would be a tough decision for the Mets to let Smith walk, given the uncertain nature of the bullpen. Again, there’s a very good chance Smith doesn’t pitch at all next season. But if he’s able to return closer to the 12-month timeline rather than the 18-month end, he could potentially be a factor down the stretch and in the playoffs.

And with Smith coming off TJS and his recovery timeline up in the air, he’s going to be very affordable. Last offseason, the Mets and Smith agreed to a one-year, $2.225 million deal to avoid arbitration. Smith is now officially a free agent, but his market value isn’t likely to be more than perhaps the $1-2 million range.

VERDICT

Smith is 31 years old and is coming off of a second Tommy John surgery, so it’s fair to wonder how much of a market there will be for him, considering he might not pitch at all in 2025.

Maybe the Mets could opt to not sign Smith initially, and then bring him back at a later date once he’s had more time to recover. But Steve Cohen and the Mets have plenty of money to spend this offseason, so perhaps signing Smith to a two-year deal for a few million dollars could be the wise play. That way, the Mets would be able to control his rehab process and then still potentially have him as a late-season option.

At the very least, the Mets would have (hopefully) a fully healthy Smith for the start of the 2026 season. When healthy, Smith is a solid asset out of the bullpen, and the value of keeping him on a very modest contract probably outweighs the option of just letting him go.