Astros Eyeing Trent Grisham? Power, Risk, and a $22M Question

The Houston Astros are reportedly kicking the tires on outfielder Trent Grisham as he weighs a $22.025 million qualifying offer from the New York Yankees. That’s a hefty one-year payday-nearly $17 million more than he made last season-and Grisham has 15 days to either take the deal or test the free agent waters. If he walks, the Yankees would receive compensatory draft capital, but they’d also shed a significant financial commitment.

Now, Grisham isn’t your typical free agent prize. He’s a bit of a puzzle-power potential, defensive chops, but a bat that’s been wildly inconsistent.

In 2025, he hit .235, which might not sound like much, but for Grisham, it was actually his third-best season since debuting in 2019. That’s part of the intrigue-and the risk.

His offensive surge this past season caught some off guard. It helped the Yankees capture the American League Silver Slugger award as a team, but the question lingering in front offices across the league is this: was 2025 a breakout or a blip?

That’s the exact dilemma the Astros could be facing. After the Jose Abreu deal didn’t pan out the way Houston hoped, there’s understandable hesitation about investing big money into a bat that could regress.

Grisham’s profile-power hitter with low batting averages and strikeout concerns-has front offices treading carefully. The league still loves the home run, but not at the expense of efficiency.

And while Grisham did cut down on his strikeouts in 2025, he’s still far from a contact hitter.

There’s also the roster math to consider. Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay raised a valid point on New York sports radio: even a one-year deal can be a bad one if it ties up resources.

“If you’re grossly overpaying for a player, that’s money you can’t spend somewhere else,” Kay said. “It’s not an unlimited budget.”

He’s not wrong. Handing Grisham over $22 million for one season means fewer dollars to chase other targets-whether that’s a big bat like Cody Bellinger or Kyle Tucker, or an ace like Sandy Alcantara or Tarik Skubal.

And if those moves happen, where does that leave top prospects like Jasson Dominguez or Spencer Jones? The ripple effects are real.

It’s a fascinating situation. Grisham’s 34-home run power used to be the kind of stat line that guaranteed a big payday.

Today, it’s viewed through a more skeptical lens. Teams are wary of the Adam Dunn archetype-slugging outfielders who bring power but little else at the plate.

That doesn’t mean Grisham won’t get paid. He will.

But it does mean that any team considering him-Houston included-will be weighing upside against volatility.

For the Astros, the question isn’t just whether Grisham fits. It’s whether they’re willing to bet that 2025 was the start of something bigger, not just a well-timed hot streak.

Dana Brown and the front office have been methodical in reshaping this roster. If they make a move here, it’ll signal they believe Grisham’s bat still has more to say.

We’ll see soon enough.