The Chicago Cubs made a big decision this week, choosing not to pick up the $57 million team option on left-hander Shota Imanaga’s contract for the 2026-2028 seasons. That move set off a chain of events that now has Imanaga heading into free agency with plenty of intrigue surrounding his next destination – and his next deal.

Because the Cubs declined their side of the option, it triggered a $15 million player option for Imanaga. But rather than take that one-year payday, the 31-year-old southpaw opted to test the open market. He’s expected to receive a $22 million qualifying offer, which would give the Cubs draft compensation if he signs elsewhere – but all signs point to Imanaga looking for something more substantial.

And based on early projections, he just might get it.

What kind of deal is Imanaga looking at?

A recent projection from ESPN has Imanaga landing a three-year, $43.5 million contract in free agency. That number reflects both the promise he showed in his debut season and the question marks that surfaced in Year 2.

Let’s rewind a bit. Imanaga’s first year in MLB was impressive.

He delivered a 2.91 ERA across 173.1 innings, showcasing the command, poise, and deception that made him a star in Japan. He didn’t overpower hitters with velocity, but he kept them off balance with a deep pitch mix and a fearless approach in the zone.

But 2025 told a different story. Imanaga missed time with a hamstring strain, and even when he was healthy, his stuff wasn’t quite as crisp.

His fastball velocity dipped slightly – possibly a lingering effect of the injury – and the results followed suit. He still posted a respectable 3.73 ERA over 144.2 innings, going 9-8 on the season.

That’s not ace-level production, but it’s solid, especially for a mid-rotation lefty.

Why the Cubs passed – and why Imanaga declined the option

The Cubs’ decision to decline the $57 million team option was likely a combination of financial flexibility and performance evaluation. Committing nearly $20 million per year for three more seasons to a pitcher coming off an injury-impacted season – and entering his age-32 campaign – carries real risk.

At the same time, Imanaga’s decision to decline the $15 million player option makes sense from his perspective. Even with the slight dip in performance, he’s shown enough to believe he can command a multi-year deal in a market that’s short on reliable left-handed starters.

And the timing might work in his favor. With names like Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez potentially commanding deals north of $100 million, Imanaga could be a more cost-effective option for teams looking to shore up their rotation without breaking the bank.

What teams will see in Imanaga

Imanaga isn’t a frontline ace, but he brings value in other ways. He’s a strike-thrower with a competitive edge, and when he’s on, his fastball plays up thanks to deception and location. His splitter and slider give him weapons against both righties and lefties, and he’s shown the ability to navigate lineups multiple times through.

He’s also durable when healthy – the hamstring strain was a setback, but not a red flag in terms of long-term concern. For teams looking for a dependable No. 3 starter with upside, Imanaga checks a lot of boxes.

What’s next

Imanaga will hit free agency as one of the more intriguing arms on the market – not the flashiest name, but a proven performer with international experience and a solid MLB track record. The $43.5 million projection feels like a reasonable starting point, but depending on how the market shakes out, he could end up with more.

Either way, he’s betting on himself – and after two years in the big leagues, it’s a bet that makes sense.