Cubs Extend Qualifying Offers to Kyle Tucker and Shōta Imanaga: What Comes Next?

Thursday marked a key checkpoint in MLB’s offseason calendar, as teams had until the deadline to extend qualifying offers to eligible free agents. The Cubs made two such offers, and while one was a no-brainer, the other comes with a few more layers to unpack.

Let’s start with Kyle Tucker.

The Cubs extending the $22.025 million qualifying offer to Tucker was as predictable as a 3-0 green light. He’s a premier talent, and while the offer is significant, it’s widely expected he’ll decline it and test the open market. Tucker’s offensive production, defensive reliability, and age make him one of the most sought-after names in free agency this offseason.

Now, when Tucker does walk, the Cubs won’t be left empty-handed. Thanks to the qualifying offer system, they’ll receive a compensatory draft pick.

Based on current projections, that pick would likely fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the top of the third round. For context, last year there were 15 picks between those two rounds, so we’re probably looking at a selection somewhere around 75th overall.

Not a game-changer, but a useful chip in the long-term roster-building process.

Now, onto the more nuanced situation: Shōta Imanaga.

This one’s a bit of a financial chess match. The Cubs declined their end of a three-year, $57.75 million option on Imanaga, which triggered a $15.25 million player option for 2026.

Imanaga, in turn, declined that-choosing instead to become a free agent. The Cubs responded by extending the same $22.025 million qualifying offer they gave Tucker.

So what’s Imanaga thinking here?

That $22 million figure is higher than the average annual value he would’ve made under either the team or player option. On paper, it’s a decent one-year payday.

But Imanaga could be eyeing something bigger. If he believes he can command a multi-year deal with a higher AAV-or even just more guaranteed money-he might bet on himself and hit the open market.

But that decision isn’t as straightforward as it might seem. Take Shane Bieber, for example.

After returning to form late in the season and pitching well for the Blue Jays across 59 total innings between the regular season and playoffs, he still opted to exercise his player option and stay in Toronto. Maybe he liked the fit, maybe he didn’t see a better offer out there.

Either way, he played it safe.

Then there’s Jack Flaherty, who had a rougher go of it in Detroit than Imanaga did in Chicago. Yet he also chose to stick with a $20 million player option instead of rolling the dice in free agency.

So Imanaga has a decision to make. He could accept the qualifying offer, pocket the $22 million, and use 2026 as a platform year to re-establish or elevate his market value.

That path would also free him from the qualifying offer tag next offseason, giving him more flexibility. Or, if he and the Cubs see eye-to-eye, there’s always the possibility of working out a longer-term extension that keeps him in Chicago without the drama of free agency.

Bottom line: the Cubs played their hand smartly. They protected their interests with Tucker, knowing he’s likely gone, and gave themselves a chance to retain Imanaga-or at least secure draft compensation if he walks.

Now the ball’s in the players’ court. And with the offseason heating up, the decisions made in the coming days could shape the Cubs’ rotation and outfield for years to come.