MLB Insider Predicts If Red Sox Give Lucas Giolito Qualifying Offer

With the World Series in the rearview mirror, Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has some decisions to make.

Among them is whether to extend right-hander Lucas Giolito a qualifying offer. Masslive.com’s Sean McAdam thinks that decision is a no-brainer.

“When it comes to deciding whether they should give a qualifying offer to Lucas Giolito, the answer is an unequivocal yes,” McAdam writes.

“If the Red Sox can also land a No. 2 starter, they could field a rotation of Garrett Crochet, their new acquisition, Giolito and Brayan Bello and still have a good half-dozen options to fill out the final spot, including Richard Fitts, Hunter Dobbins, Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Payton Tolle and Connelly Early,” McAdam adds.

The qualifying offer is a one-year, $22.05 million contract which will assure Boston it will receive draft-pick compensation if the 31-year-old walks in free agency.

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“If the Red Sox issue a qualifying offer to Lucas Giolito, and if he turns it down & signs elsewhere, their extra 2026 draft pick would come after the fourth round,” the Boston Globe’s Tim Healey noted last month. “That is part of the penalty for exceeding the luxury-lax threshold. Otherwise it would be before the third round.”

Giolito signed with the Red Sox ahead of the 2024 season but ended up missing the year while recovering from elbow surgery.

This year, Giolito impressed during the regular season, going 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts.

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The right-hander pitched 145 innings in 2025, which turned his 2026 contract into a mutual option, meaning he can choose to return to the open market. But Giolito ran out of gas at the end of the season and missed the playoffs with an injury to his right elbow.

Before joining Boston, Giolito previously pitched for the Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians.

He was an All-Star in Chicago and finished in the top 11 for Cy Young Award voting three times.

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