As Boston Red Sox fans, it’s easy to head into the 2026 offseason wanting the world. The team just made the playoffs for the first time in four seasons, has a young, promising core, and seemingly has the ownership that can pay anyone. Just like last year, this offseason feels like it could push the team even further forward.

It’s good to know what the payroll situation will actually look like. How much money is already going to be on the books before free agency begins? How close will they be to the luxury tax?

In 2026, the first luxury tax threshold climbs to $244 million from $241 million. There are extra surcharges at $264, $284, and $304 million.

Guaranteed money on the books

Heading into 2026, 10 players have guaranteed money on the books: Garrett Crochet, Patrick Sandoval, Brayan Bello, Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock, Jordan Hicks, Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Masataka Yoshida.

The way long-term extension works against the luxury tax is that the average annual value (AAV) of the contract is what counts against it. For example, while Bello will only being paid about $6.16 million this season, his AAV is about $9.16 million, so that is what counts against the tax.

Crochet, Campbell, and Anthony’s extensions all kick in this season. Crochet will have a $28.3 million hit, while Anthony’s will be $16.25 million and Campbell’s $7.5 million. Chapman will also see a pay rise due to his extension. In total, the guaranteed money will account for $122.87 million of the luxury tax, or 50.5%.

Options and opt outs

Five players have options or opt-outs in their contracts for the 2026 season. Most notably, Alex Bregman at $40 million and Trevor Story at $25 million can both opt out. Lucas Giolito ($19 million) and Liam Hendriks ($12 million) both have mutual options. Jarren Duran has an $8 million team option.

It has been reported that Bregman will be opting out, and there has been no news yet about Story. Mutual options are rarely picked up, so Giolito and Hendriks are likely gone. Duran’s is likely to be, because he would likely make more in arbitration. Assuming Story doesn’t opt out, his AAV is $23.3 million, and if Duran’s option is picked up, his AAV would be $8 million. That brings the total money up about $154 million (63% of CBT).

Arbitration players

Boston has nine arbitration-eligible players this offseason, including Duran. The other eight are: Nathaniel Lowe, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Romy Gonzalez, Connor Wong, Triston Casas, Josh Winckowski, and Brennan Bernardino. Lowe will almost certainly be non-tendered, leaving seven others to need contracts. While not all of them will be tendered contracts either, assuming they all are, that’s another $13.7 million, using MLB Trade Rumors’ estimates. That brings the total to about $168 million (68.8%).

Pre-Arbitration players

That leaves 21 other players eligible for pre-arbitration, MLB minimum contracts. That number is $820,000. Again, not all of these players will be tendered contracts. Assuming all 21 are tendered contracts, that would be about $17.2 million. That brings the total to around $185.1 million (76%).

Before any moves are made in free agency this winter, the Red Sox are looking at an estimated payroll of around $185 million, which leaves them only about $59 million to spend before they reach the first luxury tax threshold. Of course, not all the players will get contracts, and some will reach other, cheaper deals.

They will be looking to bring back Bregman, who will likely have an AAV around $25-30 million, and add other talented pieces. The Sox will likely reach that luxury tax threshold very quickly this offseason. They went over last season, but by less than five million. If they truly want to compete next season, they will have to go over by much more.