Why Nolan Arenado is the Answer to Cubs’ Third Base Woes
Despite efforts to patch the hot corner, the Cubs have cycled through options like Matt Shaw and Gage Workman with limited results, leaving a cavernous hole both offensively and defensively. Arenado, even as his numbers dip amid age and injuries, remains one of baseball’s most reliable gloves—his 10 Gold Gloves and eight All-Star nods speak for themselves. He’s posted a .285 career average, 341 home runs, and 1,132 RBIs.
Though 2025 has seen his lowest OPS as a Cardinal (.669), the environment in Chicago could offer Arenado a fresh start for a contender. Cubs President Jed Hoyer has emphasized the club’s Major League-ready pipeline, positioning Chicago to absorb the financial and prospect cost of a superstar addition without gutting its future. Arenado’s contract ($27 million in 2026, $15 million in 2027, plus deferred payments and Rockies offsets) is sizable but not prohibitive for a win-now team.
More importantly, Arenado’s shifting stance on his no-trade clause this winter opens the door for Chicago to make a substantial offer. Division rival deals remain rare, but the Cardinals’ leadership transition and looming rebuild push the franchise toward pragmatic big-picture moves.
Keys to Making the Perfect Cubs-Cardinals Trade Work
To convince St. Louis, the Cubs must check three boxes: absorb salary, send a premium prospect package, and be sensitive to Arenado’s preferences.
Financial Commitment and Optics
The Cardinals reportedly expect to pay a substantial chunk of Arenado’s remaining salary—potentially up to $32 million of the $42 million left across the next two seasons—to ensure a viable market. This reduces the net cost for Chicago to roughly $10 million annually for 2026-2027, less than the average starter’s value. Cubs ownership, seeking relevance and postseason exposure, can take on this contract—especially with the Rockies contributing deferred payments.
Blue-Chip Prospect Return
Arenado is still a franchise-caliber piece. The Cubs’ loaded farm system allows Chicago to create a powerful, multi-player package. Owen Caissie (OF), Moisés Ballesteros (C), and Kevin Alcántara (OF) headline MLB’s top 100 prospect rankings, with several rising arms like Jaxon Wiggins (RHP) and Jefferson Rojas (SS) offering upside. The perfect proposal merges near-ready impact players—aligned with the Cardinals’ desire to replenish their core.
Arenado’s No-Trade Clause and Incentives
While division swaps are rare, Arenado’s recent comments suggest growing openness to a deal. The Cubs would need to offer both a competitive roster guarantee and incentives, potentially including opt-out opportunities or agreed-upon charitable contributions, to win his waiver.
Cubs’ Perfect Trade Offer
The ideal proposal for the Cubs to acquire Nolan Arenado would involve:
Cubs receive:
- Nolan Arenado (3B)
- Cardinals cover $32 million of the remaining salary on Arenado’s deal
Cardinals receive:
- Owen Caissie (OF)
- Moises Ballesteros (C)
- Kevin Alcantara (OF)
- Jaxon Wiggins (RHP)
This offer balances the Cardinals’ rebuild needs—adding two top 100 position prospects and an advanced pitching talent—while the Cubs secure an instant lineup upgrade and postseason-tested veteran for their next playoff push.
Moving Nolan Arenado to the Cubs is more than a blockbuster; it’s a signal that both organizations are embracing their competitive timelines. The Cubs’ willingness to pay for superstar impact, plus their unmatched prospect depth, allows Chicago to make a bid few other franchises can replicate. For St. Louis, adding outfield and catching talent accelerates the youth movement, softens payroll burdens, and sets up the next era with flexibility.
Arenado, now more receptive to trade scenarios, can chase another ring with a franchise ready to win—while the Cubs create the division’s fiercest left side with Arenado anchoring the hot corner. It may not be the most comfortable rivalry transaction, but it’s the perfect answer for two teams at crosswinds in the National League Central.
In the end, Cubs fans get their star. Cardinals fans get their future. And Arenado gets his chance to shine where October lights burn brightest.
