A watched pot never boils and the MLB hot stove starts cooking when you least expect it. We’re not even to the World Series yet in the postseason and rumors are beginning to percolate throughout baseball, one of the biggest and most surprising being that the Cincinnati Reds could trade flame-throwing right-hander Hunter Greene this offseason. Reds insider Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reported that moving the 26-year-old starter could free up the club to add to an ailing offense while using the bevy of high-end pitching talent to acquire major-league talent.

Off the jump, no team matches up for such a trade quite like the Boston Red Sox. Chief Baseball Office Craig Breslow and the front office has already made it clear after the team’s Wild Card Round exit that they can’t be complacent this offseason and adding a No. 2 starter behind Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet appears to be top of mind. That’s especially true after Breslow noted the Red Sox pursuing additions that “move the needle” while speaking with NESN this week, which Greene would undeniably qualify as.

Though injuries have limited Greene’s availability in his young career — he’s not cleared 26 starts or 151 innings in a single season to this point — the stuff has long been elite with a triple-digit fastball and a devastating slider headlining the show. And with him on an extension through 2028 that pays an AAV of just $13 million with a $21 million club option for 2029, he fits the bill as even a 1B behind Crochet or at least a No. 2 starter. More importantly, though, the Red Sox have their outfield glut to trade from to fill the Reds’ need for major-league talent, namely with Jarren Duran.

So what would the trade to get Hunter Greene to Boston potentially look like? It’d be anything but cheap, but the Red Sox have the major-league bat in Duran (or Wilyer Abreu) to pair with MLB-ready top prospects that could truly entice the Reds.

Payton Tolle projects long-term as another flame-throwing starter from the left side, but could be used in a bullpen role as he continues to develop his secondaries. Jhostynxon Garcia, better known as “The Password”, is also on the cusp of the majors after boasting elite power numbers in Triple-A last season. Boston could also throw in another Top 20 prospect if necessary should the Reds want more, as their farm system remains one of the better groups in baseball.

On paper, that trade certainly looks like it could get done for both sides and accomplish each franchise’s respective goals. But what would such a deal granularly mean for the Red Sox and Reds? Point blank, both teams would likely get much better after pulling off this trade.

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Red Sox projected rotation with Hunter Greene and what it means

With Greene entering the fray, here’s what the Red Sox could roll out as their Opening Day rotation.

Assuming that Boston doesn’t elect to retain Lucas Giolito, the top three in the rotation would be set with Crochet, Greene, and Brayan Bello, possibly creating one of the best 1-2-3 punches in baseball. The emergence of Connelly Early late in the season was more than enough to solidify his spot in the rotation as well, especially from the left side, while the return of Kutter Crawford is a solid No. 5 starter — though that spot could be taken by anyone from the group of Patrick Sandoval, Kyle Harrison, Hunter Dobbins or even, though it’s a longshot, young Luis Perales.

The Red Sox have ample pitching depth based on Breslow’s dealings over the past few seasons, even with whiffs on players like Walker Buehler and Dustin May. However, what they clearly lacked late in the year, and especially in the postseason, was the top-end talent to put in behind Crochet with any type of confidence in the highest leverage situations.

Greene answers that call tenfold. While the health is a concern, he’s the type of elite talent that you don’t think twice about when it comes to acquiring. Hell, there were concerns about the ace-level workload for Crochet when they traded a king’s ransom for him last offseason. All he did was go on to lead MLB in innings pitched and strikeouts before dominating Game 1 of the Wild Card series against the Yankees with 117 pitches.

Beyond that, the Red Sox trading Duran might seem like a massive loss for the lineup, but that may not necessarily be the case. With Roman Anthony’s arrival and the hopeful return of Kristian Campbell to the bigs, there are too many cooks in the kitchen. Reallocating resources with Duran frees Boston up to roll out Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu as an everyday outfield with Campbell and potentially Rob Refsnyder also coming into play.

This makes the Red Sox elevate from a playoff team to one that can go deeper. It’s not the only move that they’d need to make with re-signing Alex Bregman and filling the voids at DH and first base still at the forefront. However, it’s clear that if something like this is on the table to acquire Greene, Breslow and Boston shouldn’t hesitate.

Reds projected lineup with Jarren Duran and what it means

When it comes to the Reds, they’ve long needed more consistent juice in the lineup beyond an Elly De La Cruz. Duran could provide that, instantly giving Cincinnati far more danger for opposing pitchers to navigate day-in and day-out when you look at the lineup after adding the former All-Star Game MVP in Jarren Duran.

Now, let’s be clear, the Reds lineup even after adding Duran could still use some help for a team that so often appeared inept at the plate. At the same time, it would be a much stronger starting point for Cincinnati with Duran in the leadoff spot and, likely, a bump back up for De La Cruz at the No. 2 hole in the lineup.

Beyond that, though, as the reports of Greene potentially being moved stated, getting his extension off the books would allow the Reds to explore other potential bats in free agency to further supplement the offense. That’s ostensibly a sizable reason behind why they would be willing to trade Greene for a cost-effective bat, because it opens the door to other opportunities to upgrade.

But Cincinnati can also afford to see Greene leave because of the young high-end pitching they’ll still have. Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and Chase Burns can comprise a strong, high-upside top four with the potential to call up more prospects or even bring back one of Zack Littell and Nick Martinez in free agency. In any case, for as good as Greene is, the need for offense is greater than a need to continue stacking the rotation given what’s already in the building.

Maybe they could ask for more than just Duran in the way of current major-league talent, too, and there’s a non-zero chance that Breslow and the Red Sox would entertain that as well. However, for a Reds team that’s coming off a postseason berth, this paints the picture that trading Greene, even if it might sound counter-intuitive, could be the best way to push even further ahead moving forward.