The Boston Red Sox have underwhelmed to start the 2026 season. Their record has them in last place in the American League East. On any given night, one side of the ball seems to struggle. Some nights the bats don’t show up, on other nights the pitching is giving up eight runs.
Back-to-back series wins against the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals have kept Boston afloat, but fans are already very upset because of its high offseason expectations. We’re still less than 10% of the way through the season, so there is plenty of time to turn things around. Seventeen games is enough time to build a picture of how players’ seasons are going to go, and some have some promising under-the-hood numbers.
Ceddanne Rafaela’s plate vision is improving
Ceddanne Rafaela is known by Red Sox Nation as a free swinger, for better or for worse. In 2025, he struck out almost 20% of the time and chased at pitches out of the zone over 42% of the time. To start 2026, those numbers have come down significantly.
The Red Sox center fielder’s chase% is down to 36.5. He has cut his chase% against breaking balls by almost half. He is not swinging at first pitches nearly as much, from almost 50% to 36.8%. It seems like he’s going up to the plate with a much better approach, and he’s recognizing pitches better. If this trend continues, he will have much more success at the plate this season.
Masataka Yoshida is doing damage against breaking balls
Masataka Yoshida has only played in 11 games this season, but he has been one of the best starts of any player on the Sox this season. Part of this is coming due to the success he is having against breaking balls. Last season, Yoshida hit .227 against breaking balls and had a .254 wOBA. This season, he’s hitting .333 with a .475 wOBA. Part of this success is coming from the fact that his ground ball rate against breaking balls has dropped almost 20%.
In 2025, a lot of his success came against fastballs (4-seam, sinker, and cutters). In 2026, he is having similar success against fastballs. As long as he can keep up a similar approach to this against breaking balls, he will be forcing himself into the Red Sox lineup, and he will be impactful.
Brayan Bello is showing improved command on a key pitch
The pressure seemed to be lifted on Brayan Bello heading into 2026 following the acquisitions of Ranger Suárez and Sonny Gray. Bello was going from a No. 2 or 3 in the rotation to the No. 4. The Dominican native didn’t have a good first two starts, though. His start in St. Louis was promising, and after three appearances, it’s easy to see that he is putting pitches in the zone more.
Bello’s most influential pitch since he was called up has been his changeup. Last season, he struggled with it, but this year, he’s getting it in the zone almost 15% more. Due to the increased command, he’s getting whiffs with it almost 13% more, the average exit velocity is down almost two miles per hour, and it’s getting hit hard almost 8% less. The starting pitching has struggled this season, but if Bello can steady the ship every turn through the rotation, it would be a huge boost to the Sox’s postseason chances, and his changeup will be a major factor in that.
