Where do the Cubs go from here? After playoff elimination, Jed Hoyer has decisions to make about club’s future

The 2025 Chicago Cubs season has ended after they were eliminated in Game 5 of the NLDS by the NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers.

In some ways, it was a successful year, given that the Cubs made their first full-season playoff round since 2018 and won their first playoff game since 2017, let alone their first playoff series. They won 92 regular-season games, their most since 2018. That marked a nine-game improvement over 2024. The Cubs drew more than 3 million fans to Wrigley for the first time since 2019.

On the flip side, there is a bit of an empty feeling that comes with all of that. From April 4-July 20, the Cubs were either in first place or tied for first. They built up a 6 ½-game lead in the middle of June and were fighting for the best record in baseball. Instead, they ended up in a Wild Card Series at home. For much of the summer, this looked like a team that would win its division, get a bye and have a real shot at a deep playoff run, possibly even winning the World Series. Instead, they’ll be watching the NLCS from home for the eighth consecutive season while the Brewers advance.

Is that acceptable? This isn’t a rhetorical question. I’m asking you, Tom Ricketts, Cubs chairman, and Jed Hoyer, Cubs club president. Is being second banana in the Central to the Brewers an acceptable place for your Chicago Cubs?

Considering the Cubs’ market advantages over the rest of the NL Central — Chicago is easily the largest market in the division — and the financial clout that comes with it, it could be argued the Cubs don’t flex those muscles as much as they should. They ranked 11th in payroll this season, sitting behind teams like the Padres, Astros and Rangers.

It isn’t only a matter of spending money, of course, but Hoyer and his front office have done a good job of building up a player-development system. There’s an argument that now is the time for the Cubs to spring into action with extra spending to supplement the foundation, not unlike they did leading up to the 2016 World Series title.

Let’s run through the different pieces of the ballclub and how things look heading to the offseason.

Catcher

Since the departure of Willson Contreras after the 2022 season, the Cubs have had a bad catching situation. That all changed this season, when they ended up with one of the best. It was a group effort, but the only team with more value from behind the plate (by Baseball Reference’s positional wins above average) this season was the Mariners.

Carson Kelly had a career year in the first season of a two-year deal. Reese McGuire was an admirable fill-in as backup, but he’s a non-tender candidate because Miguel Amaya will be counted on next season. Amaya grew greatly in 2024 and was very good when healthy this season. Unfortunately, he was hurt for all but 28 games. Kelly and Amaya should make for a great catcher duo in 2026.

Moisés Ballesteros also likely figures in future plans for the Cubs, but it’s believed that the team doesn’t want him to stay behind the plate, at least not full-time, at least not yet at the big-league level.

Infield

We don’t need to spend much time here. First baseman Michael Busch is coming off a 34-homer, 4.5-WAR season at age 27 and is under team control through 2029. Second baseman Nico Hoerner is one of the most valuable and underrated players in baseball and is locked up through next season (perhaps an extension should happen this offseason). Shortstop Dansby Swanson is signed through 2029 and coming off another very productive season. Rookie third baseman Matt Shaw struggled in the first half, but he hit .258/.317/.522 in the second half, flashing a great glove at third along with 13 homers, 17 steals and 3.1 WAR on the season.

Hoyer can deal with the depth, but the starting infield is set and we can move on.

Outfield

The Cubs overall had a loaded outfield this season, so much so that the DH spot was generally filled by a spare outfielder. They enter the offseason with decisions to make.

It starts with Kyle Tucker, who is headed to free agency and will likely get a monster deal (some speculate a lot more, but I think it’s reasonable to expect in the $300 million area). He’s a star. There have been a few injuries, so let’s go with his 162-game averages in his prime that started in 2021: .277/.365/.514 (145 OPS+), 24 doubles, 33 homers, 106 RBI, 98 runs, 6.2 WAR. Again, that’s per 162 games. His career high in home runs in a season is 30. His high-water mark in WAR is 5.5 and he posted 4.5 WAR this season. He had a season-crushing slump through July and most of August. He also was a significant part of the offense when it was a juggernaut through June.

How much payroll should be tied up in him? I do think it’s fair to have concerns about a monster contract for Tucker right now, especially given how much injuries seem to have hampered him the last two years, both in terms of games missed and the impact it had on his production.

Ian Happ is only signed through next season at $19 million. He’s a good player, but not a star. Though he’s streaky within the season, you generally know where his numbers are going to end up. In the last four seasons, he’s been between 117 and 120 OPS+ and between 3.5 and 4.3 WAR.

Seiya Suzuki’s contract also runs through next season. He had his best power season with 32 home runs and 103 RBI, but he had a brutal stretch after the All-Star break until the final week of the season and then he got hot again, riding that wave through the playoffs. He’s a better overall hitter than Happ, but also an inferior defender.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to be the Cubs’ center fielder for a long time, so we can skip him.

The decisions in the outfield come down to the corners. Hoyer could let Tucker walk and run it back with Suzuki in right and Happ in left. That would open up a full-time designated hitter slot for Ballesteros. Then all the spending in the offseason could be on the pitching side and extensions for players like Hoerner and PCA.

Hoyer could also elect to trade Happ and/or Suzuki and then either make a run at Tucker or a different free agent (who hasn’t envisioned Kyle Schwarber back at DH?) with the option of giving a shot to youngster Owen Caissie, who showed some decent flashes in his cup of coffee (even though his final line looks bad).

There are a lot of options, all of which require firm decisions on Happ and Suzuki, along with the choice on how aggressive to be in bidding on Tucker.

It won’t be easy, but there are favorable answers in there, given that everyone we’re talking about is a good player. It’s a lot better than choosing between a bunch of bad players, right?

Rotation

Cade Horton looked like a frontline starter through most of his rookie season. Matthew Boyd was overall great and is signed through next season with an option for 2027. He ran out of gas in the second half, but next year he’ll be better suited to deal with the heavy workload. Shota Imanaga has contract options moving forward and the guess is the Cubs pick those up, despite his major home run problems in the second half and playoffs. Remember, lefty Justin Steele had Tommy John surgery early in the season and will be back next year at some point. Jameson Taillon is signed through next season.

That’s five starters. They’ll need depth, though.

Colin Rea has a $6 million player option and he probably elects free agency instead. Still, a reunion with him wouldn’t be horrible. He was productive in filling in this season with 27 starts and five relief appearances.

Javier Assad is still under team control through 2029 and has shown himself to be a nice back-end rotation guy.

Things look pretty good here, but there’s always room to look for a frontline guy if any become available via trade or if the Cubs decide to pursue a free agent (Framber Valdez, Michael King, Ranger Suárez and Dylan Cease are out there). Imanaga might be cleared via trade to make room if needed, but this all speculative on my part.

Bullpen

Bullpens can be pieced together on the cheap and we’ve seen Hoyer have success taking this path. The Cubs have a few high-octane arms under team control, such as Daniel Palencia and Porter Hodge. Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar and Brad Keller are free agents, among others. Keller in particular is worth pursuit in the offseason, but it’s also possible a team desperate for a closer spends more than the Cubs want to.

Andrew Kittredge has a team option at $9 million that could be worth picking up.

What’s the plan?

The team is in really good shape to be … good. Again. And that’s always a plus. But: Will they be great? Are they a World Series champion-type ballclub?

Maybe.

A lot of the offseason will depend on how Hoyer’s front office feels about a lot of the younger players and their upside. Then it’ll depend on how aggressive he wants to be in going for a World Series title instead of just being a 90ish-win team hoping to have everything fall into place for a World Series run. Part of the reason the Cubs had to do a quick rebuild was because young players didn’t live up to expectations in 2019-21. Hoyer doesn’t want a repeat of that, so he needs to make sure he correctly judges the young players.

My hunch is Hoyer stays in the lane where most of this team remains intact heading to next season with only a few tweaks. The outfield group is the one to watch with Tucker’s free agency and possible trade talk about Happ and/or Suzuki.

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