It’s official, the Yankees will meet the Red Sox in a three-game Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium. New York finished with an identical record to last year (94-68) and to the Blue Jays, but fell just short of winning the division thanks to the tiebreaker. All the same, New York rides a wave of positive momentum into October, posting the best record in MLB (31-12) since August 11th and winning their final eight games of the season. It’s a dramatic showdown to kick off the Yankees’ postseason odyssey, one that’s impossible to call before a pitch is thrown.

If the Yankees are to advance beyond this round, they will have to flip the script on the season narrative between the two clubs. Boston dominated the season series 9-4, doing most of their damage during a pair of series within the Yankees’ Jun swoon. However, the Yankees did take two out of three in the final season series to build belief that they can repeat the feat, albeit against a Red Sox squad that was without rookie sensation Roman Anthony as he recovered from an oblique injury that cost him the final month of the regular season.

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Speaking of Anthony, it was stark the effect that removing his bat had on the lineup, the Red Sox scoring about one less run per game in his absence. His potential return for the Wild Card Series is still up in the air, however he is not the only slugger the Yankees need to worry about. Alex Bregman offers a consistent presence in the box as well as scads of playoff experience to an otherwise inexperienced roster. Trevor Story had his best full season since 2019 with 25 home runs and 96 RBIs. Jarren Duran got hot in the second half and alongside center field wizard Ceddanne Rafaela helped the Red Sox produce by far the most outfield Outs Above Average (33) of any team in the league. Rob Refsnyder and Romy Gonzalez have been well above average with the bat in utility roles while Carlos Narváez offers a home run threat behind the plate.

If that slate of bats manages to outscore you, you then have to worry about one of the best bullpens in baseball, Boston’s relief corps finishing among the top-four in ERA (3.43), FIP (3.70), and fWAR (6.8). In Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman, the Red Sox possess one of the scariest eighth and ninth inning duos of any playoff team. The pair finished second and fourth, respectively, in fWAR among qualified relievers, Chapman posting the lowest WHIP (0.70) and third-highest strikeout rate (37.3-percent) and Whitlock posting a 2.25 ERA while allowing just two home runs in 72 innings. Greg Weissert and Justin Wilson have been shutdown in the middle innings, both with sub-three ERAs.

Game 1

Matchup: LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Garrett Crochet
First Pitch: Tuesday, September 30th at 6:08pm ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
TV: ESPN

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When Gerrit Cole went down to Tommy John surgery in spring, winter signing Max Fried stepped in to immediately fill the Cy Young sized void, pitching to a 1.92 ERA through the end of June to earn an All-Star nod. Panic began to set in as he suffered a similar swoon to the rest of his team, posting a 6.80 ERA in eight subsequent starts. He turned his season around just in time and finished with a 1.55 ERA in his final seven starts to end the year (two of which were wins against Boston) with an MLB-high 19 wins in 32 starts, with a 2.86 ERA (142 ERA+), 3.07 FIP, 189 strikeouts and 4.8 fWAR across 195.1 innings as he will likely finish in the top-five in AL Cy Young voting.

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The key for Fried has been an adjustment to his approach, realizing that he had become too cutter-heavy during his rough stretch. He began to mix in more changeup and curveballs, the former pitch emerging as a serious weapon in his final two starts. He’s just the man the Yankees want in Game 1 against the Red Sox, winning all three of his regular season starts as he pitched to a 1.96 ERA showing an ability to reach back for extra velocity — even as high as 99 mph — when playing against the rivals.

Alongside Bregman, Garrett Crochet was Boston’s marquee offseason addition, acquired from the White Sox for a tetrad of prospects headlined by Kyle Teel and promptly signed to a six-year, $170 million extension. He has been everything and more than the Red Sox could have asked for, leading all pitchers with 255 strikeouts and 205.1 innings pitched. He will finish as the likely runner-up to Tarik Skubal in AL Cy Young balloting, going 18-5 in 32 starts with a 2.59 ERA (159 ERA+), 2.89 FIP, and 5.8 fWAR.

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After the White Sox limited his innings in 2024, he exploded into a archetypical workhorse ace in Boston averaging over 6.1 innings per start. Long reliant on his four-seamer, Crochet underwent a transformation with the Red Sox, honing his sinker and sweeper such that they graded out as two of the top 22 pitches in baseball at 15 Statcast Runs above average each. He still threw his four-seamer the most of any pitch and that is the one the Yankees should hunt, opposing hitters managing a .487 slugging and 50.5-percent hard-hit rate against. He faced them four times in the regular season, the Red Sox winning three of those starts as he posted a 3.29 ERA, striking out double digits in two and carrying a shutout into the ninth in another. Aaron Judge homered off him twice this year, both against the fastball, but I wouldn’t expect that to alter Crochet’s approach against the Yankee captain.

Game 2

Matchup: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Brayan Bello
First Pitch: Wednesday, October 1st at 6:08pm ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
TV: ESPN

After a disastrous debut season and experiencing encouraging growth in his sophomore season in pinstripes, Carlos Rodón finally emerged as the co-ace the Yankees hoped they were signing prior to the start of 2023. His evolution from a fastball-slider bulldog who tried to bully hitters into a pitching professor with an expansive arsenal and multiple ways to throw each of those pitches has been one of the most encouraging developments for any Yankee. He finished in the top-ten league wide in strikeouts (203) and held hitters to the lowest average (.187) of any qualified AL starter. In 33 starts, Rodón went 18-9 with a 3.09 ERA (131 ERA+), 3.78 FIP, and 3.2 fWAR in 195.1 innings.

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Like Fried, Rodón leaned on the developing mastery of his changeup. The result was a less predicatable pitcher in two-strike counts, boosting the effectiveness of his real out pitch the slider. The pitch returned a 40.3-percent whiff rate, 32.7-percent chase rate, and 39.2-percent strikeout rate — all high-water marks for his time in pinstripes. Additionally, he has thrown his four-seamer low in the zone more which increases the chase potential on the slider, and he expanded use of a sinker that is a legitimate neutralizer against lefty batters. As long as he can hold the walks in check he should be primed for success, the Red Sox drawing ten free passes in his three starts against them.

Alex Cora announced that Brayan Bello would get the nod to start Game 2. The fourth-year pro finally put it all together on the mound in 2025 as he allowed about a third fewer home runs per nine than his last two seasons. He posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career and saw his whiffs and chases crater, but made up for it by slashing three-and-a-half points off his hard-hit rate. In 29 appearances, Bello went 11-9 with a 3.35 ERA (122 ERA+), 4.19 FIP, 124 strikeouts and 1.9 fWAR across 166.2 innings.

Bello added a cutter in 2025 that bridges the gap between his sinker and sweeper and helped him overcome his struggles against lefties. He dominated the Yankees in his first two starts against them this year, going seven scoreless allowing three hits in each outing. They finally broke through against him scoring four runs in five innings on September 13th by employing a more patient approach rather than free swinging early in the count as in their first two matchups.

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Game 3 (if necessary)

Matchup: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. RHP Lucas Giolito (both unconfirmed)
First Pitch: Thursday, October 2nd at 6:08pm ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
TV: ESPN

The Yankees have not announced a starter for a potential Game 3, but all signs point to Cam Schlittler winning the role ahead of Luis Gil. Prior to Schlittler’s MLB debut on July 9th, Yankees pitchers had not thrown a single pitch faster than 98 mph. He brought immediate octane to the pitching room, averaging 98 mph on his four-seamer and touching triple digits 31 times. Gil may have prior playoff experience, but Schlittler offers both a higher floor and ceiling than his rotation mate. In 14 starts, the 24-year-old rookie went 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA (138 ERA+), 3.74 FIP, 84 strikeouts and 1.3 fWAR in 73 innings.

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Schlittler does pretty much everything better than Gil, including strikeout rate (27.6-percent vs. 17.3-percent) and walk rate (10.2-percent vs. 13.8-percent). Schlittler maintains his fastball velocity throughout his start, whereas Gil’s velocity decreased with each start this season. What’s more, Gil shows an alarming over-reliance on batted ball outs, has inconsistent slider shape and spotty changeup command, and all those free passes lead to elevated pitch counts, abbreviated outings, and a taxed bullpen.

The biggest vote in Schlittler’s favor, however, is the improvement he showed with each successive start. By the end of the year he showed a consistent ability to live on the top shelf of the strike zone with his fastball, leading to a 27.9-percent whiff rate and 50 strikeouts on the four-seamer. Each start also brought sharpened command of the cutter — early on he threw to many in the middle of the zone leading to an elevated home run rate — but learning to keep it low and toward the glove-side edge of the zone allowed him to limit opponents to just two home runs across his final nine starts. The x-factor has been the curveball, giving him a legitimate swing-and-miss secondary pitch and creating velocity separation off the heater and cutter. He saved his best start for last — seven scoreless allowing two hits and a walk with a career-high nine strikeouts against the Orioles — giving him all the belief he needs to make his postseason debut.

The Red Sox have also not named an official Game 3 starter, though Cora did indicate that Lucas Giolito is the likely choice. Giolito had a quietly solid season for Boston after missing the first month to injury. At his peak with the White Sox, he possessed a deadly four-seam and changeup combo, but his four-seamer lost a ton of its effectiveness after the league crackdown on foreign substance. He reinvented himself somewhat in 2025, going to more of an even split between changeup and slider as his secondaries of choice, and as a result the four-seamer returned an above-average run value for the first time since 2020. In 26 starts, he went 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA (120 ERA+), 4.17 FIP, 121 strikeouts and 1.9 fWAR in 145 innings.

He actually resembles Gil in certain respects, both pitchers relying on batted ball outs to make up for significant dips in strikeout rates. They are both fly ball pitchers, Giolito susceptible to the long ball throughout his career but experiencing some remarkable luck by giving up a home run on 9.3-percent of fly balls as compared to on over 15-percent of fly balls in his career prior to this season. He made two starts against the Yankees, winning one and losing one, giving up five runs (four earned) across 10.1 innings.