Thank God it\u2019s Friday at the old late night coffee shop serving all of the libations you\u2019re looking for to get your weekend started right. Josh left things sparkling for us on Thursday so be sure you clean up and leave things the same when he returns on Monday night.<\/p>\n
You\u2019re probably wearing a coat as Fall sets in or at least a light jacket. We had a time change and….well, let\u2019s just say it\u2019s been a doozy of a week over here. So much has been going on that there\u2019s a real chance you missed the Steamer projections dropping at FanGraphs this week.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s right y\u2019all, we finally have some numbers to play with for next season. So each Fantasy Friday for the next few weeks I\u2019ll be doing a deep dive on what that projection system sees for a Cubs star. We\u2019ll start off with the man who has as good of a case as anyone to be be the face of this current version of the Chicago Cubs: Dansby Swanson.<\/p>\n
Dansby Swanson was signed to a seven-year, $177 million deal before the 2023 season. It\u2019s the second largest deal ever signed by the Chicago Cubs, squarely between the eight-year $184 million the team signed Jason Heyward to and the six-year $155 million deal that Jon Lester inked. We\u2019ll take a broader look at the deal, Dansby\u2019s production in blue pinstripes to date, and his projection for next season \u2014 a season that happens to coincide with the final year of Jed Hoyer\u2019s contract as President of Baseball Operations \u2014 below, however first some tunes.<\/p>\n
There aren\u2019t really that many musicians in existence who have had a career with quite the range that Bruce Hornsby has (pun, maybe slightly intended). The man played piano with the Grateful Dead. He\u2019s also released 19 separate albums and\/or compilations with a variety of collaborators. I started going down a Bruce Hornsby rabbit hole as I wrote this piece because I originally intended on focusing on a B-side called Swan Song, <\/em>and who knows, maybe we\u2019ll go back there some day. But it was impossible to write a Bruce Hornsby piece without paying homage to where it all started.<\/p>\n Hornsby\u2019s first single was his biggest hit. It landed at number one on the Billboard Hot 100 after it was released. That song is: The Way it Is:<\/em><\/p>\n It\u2019s a gorgeous piano riff with an unmistakable beat at the top, and a scathing commentary on social issues that honestly, don\u2019t seem to have changed all that much since 1986:<\/p>\n Standing in line, marking time That\u2019s just the way it is It\u2019s a powerful song that\u2019s been covered a lot. Perhaps the most unlikely sampling in pop culture is Tupac\u2019s Changes, <\/em>which was originally recorded in 1992 but wasn\u2019t released until 1998 \u2014 two years after Tupac\u2019s death:<\/p>\n From Tupac\u2019s version:<\/p>\n I got love for my brother, but we can never go nowhere And that\u2019s how it\u2019s supposed to be Come on, come on The Way it Is<\/em> and Changes <\/em>demonstrate clearly the idea of a world where we just have to accept the all of the flaws and slights. It is no accident that it resonated as much in 1998 as it did in 1986. Both songs rightfully won awards. It\u2019s no surprise that it\u2019s not hard to find additional contemporary remixes, samplings and updates \u2014 perhaps some things truly will never change.<\/p>\n One more time, some lyrics from the original 1986 recording:<\/p>\n Said hey, little boy, you can\u2019t go where the others go That\u2019s just the way it is One more time for emphasis: \u201cAh, but don\u2019t you believe them.\u201d<\/p>\n Back here in baseball stats-land there are all sorts of priors we could question as just being the way it is. Jed Hoyer\u2019s role as the architect of this Cubs team, Dansby Swanson\u2019s role as the face of this version of the Cubs, and yes, the projections themselves \u2014 are they accurate? If not, why? Is there more there? Let\u2019s dig in.<\/p>\n Steamer projections are updated frequently so the numbers below are as of this posting, but let\u2019s take Dansby Swanson\u2019s stats since 2021 and add in Steamer to evaluate how Cubs fans might expect their star player to perform in 2024:<\/p>\n Select statsFanGraphs<\/cite><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The plate appearance rebound for Swanson seems correct to me. Obviously anyone can get injured, but he\u2019s been on the field more often than not in his career. However, I do find the more modest increase in counting stats like RBI and HR a bit puzzling. It could just be a reflection of Dansby being 31 and aging curves, however, it could also be a reflection of the players around him and a concern that the overall offense will not perform to a level that could allow him the opportunity to drive in runs.<\/p>\n Perhaps the stat I\u2019m most perplexed by here is the FanGraph\u2019s WAR Steamer projects for Dansby. After all, WAR is also a counting stat and Dansby derives a lot of his WAR from defense. Steamer seems skeptical of that defense. I\u2019m not generally a fan of looking at the Offensive and Defensive WAR numbers on FanGraphs on their own but in the context of improvements or declines, they are meaningful.<\/p>\n It seems pretty clear that Steamer is projection that Dansby\u2019s offensive WAR holds steady at last season while his defensive WAR…declines by a factor of three back to his lowest tally since the pandemic shortened season. That seems wrong to me. Like I\u2019m inclined to take the over on the offensive WAR but could see it being close. The wheels would have to completely fall off the defensive bus for him to revert to 2020.<\/p>\n Overall, I think Dansby\u2019s Steamer projection is being pulled down by two seasons that have had some injury issues and a very weird projected defensive collapse. What say you? Will the Cubs shortstop overperform those estimates in 2025 or is Steamer accurate?<\/p>\n As you place your vote don\u2019t forget to leave a tip for the wait staff, they do great work for these late week BCB After Dark sessions and we want Josh and crew to know we appreciate them at least as much on Friday as we do on Monday.<\/p>\n (3 votes)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n (5 votes)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n (5 votes)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n (5 votes)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n (0 votes)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n 18 votes total Vote Now<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The late night coffee shop looks at the Cubs star shortstop next season<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":6218,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb"],"yoast_head":"\n\n
\nWaiting for the welfare dime
\n\u2018Cause they can\u2019t buy a job
\nThe man in the silk suit hurries by
\nAs he catches the poor old lady\u2019s eyes
\nJust for fun he says, \u201cGet a job\u201d<\/p>\n
\nSome things will never change
\nThat\u2019s just the way it is
\nAh, but don\u2019t you believe them<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n
\nUnless we share with each other
\nWe gotta start makin\u2019 changes
\nLearn to see me as a brother instead of two distant strangers<\/p>\n
\nHow can the devil take a brother, if he\u2019s close to me?
\nI\u2019d love to go back to when we played as kids
\nBut things changed, and that\u2019s the way it is<\/p>\n
\nThat\u2019s just the way it is
\nThings will never be the same
\nThat\u2019s just the way it is
\nOoh, yeah<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n
\n\u2018Cause you don\u2019t look like they do
\nSaid hey, old man, how can you stand to think that way?
\nDid you really think about it before you made the rules?
\nHe said, son<\/p>\n
\nSome things will never change
\nThat\u2019s just the way it is
\nAh, but don\u2019t you believe them<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\nDansby Swanson stats since 2021<\/h3>\n
\n\n
\n \nYear<\/th>\n Age<\/th>\n PA<\/th>\n HR<\/th>\n RBI<\/th>\n AVG<\/th>\n OBP<\/th>\n SLG<\/th>\n K%<\/th>\n BB%<\/th>\n BABIP<\/th>\n wRC+<\/th>\n OWAR<\/th>\n DWAR<\/th>\n WAR<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n \n \nYear<\/th>\n Age<\/th>\n PA<\/th>\n HR<\/th>\n RBI<\/th>\n AVG<\/th>\n OBP<\/th>\n SLG<\/th>\n K%<\/th>\n BB%<\/th>\n BABIP<\/th>\n wRC+<\/th>\n OWAR<\/th>\n DWAR<\/th>\n WAR<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tfoot>\n \n 2021<\/td>\n 27<\/td>\n 653<\/td>\n 27<\/td>\n 88<\/td>\n .248<\/td>\n .311<\/td>\n .449<\/td>\n 25.6%<\/td>\n 8.0%<\/td>\n .322<\/td>\n 99<\/td>\n 1.0<\/td>\n 9.9<\/td>\n 3.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2022<\/td>\n 28<\/td>\n 696<\/td>\n 25<\/td>\n 96<\/td>\n .277<\/td>\n .329<\/td>\n .447<\/td>\n 26.1%<\/td>\n 7.0%<\/td>\n .337<\/td>\n 117<\/td>\n 17.3<\/td>\n 22.0<\/td>\n 6.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2023<\/td>\n 29<\/td>\n 638<\/td>\n 22<\/td>\n 80<\/td>\n .244<\/td>\n .328<\/td>\n .416<\/td>\n 24.1%<\/td>\n 10.3%<\/td>\n .325<\/td>\n 106<\/td>\n 6.9<\/td>\n 20.6<\/td>\n 4.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2024<\/td>\n 30<\/td>\n 593<\/td>\n 16<\/td>\n 66<\/td>\n .242<\/td>\n .312<\/td>\n .390<\/td>\n 24.3%<\/td>\n 9.1%<\/td>\n .307<\/td>\n 99<\/td>\n 3.4<\/td>\n 18.9<\/td>\n 4.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Steamer 2025<\/td>\n 31<\/td>\n 656<\/td>\n 20<\/td>\n 72<\/td>\n .245<\/td>\n .315<\/td>\n .401<\/td>\n 24.2%<\/td>\n 8.9%<\/td>\n .313<\/td>\n 103<\/td>\n 3.4<\/td>\n 7.0<\/td>\n 3.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Poll<\/h3>\n
Will Dansby Swanson exceed his Steamer projection in 2025?<\/h4>\n
\n
16%<\/h6>\n
Yes \u2014 it\u2019s undercounting his defense and offense<\/h6>\n
27%<\/h6>\n
Yes \u2014 the offense looks right, but where did that defense number come from?<\/h6>\n
27%<\/h6>\n
No \u2014 it looks accurate to me<\/h6>\n
27%<\/h6>\n
No \u2014 but it\u2019s because the defense will prop up the offense more than Steamer thinks<\/h6>\n
0%<\/h6>\n
Other \u2014 put it in the comments<\/h6>\n