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<\/p>\nWhen the international amateur signing period opened up in January two years ago, the Orioles handed out what was then a team-record $1.7 million signing bonus to outfielder Braylin Tavera. At the same time, the team gave out bonuses of at least $100,000 to 14 other players in hopes of having more chances of one of them turning into something.<\/p>\n
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Going into this season, there wasn\u2019t much to separate Venezuelan infielder Aron Estrada from any of those other guys. After Estrada\u2019s 2024 campaign, where he had a strong set of results in his first taste of a full-season affiliate at age 19, the switch-hitter might well be the standout player from that Orioles signing class, at least for now.<\/p>\n
This was not a good season for the Delmarva Shorebirds, the Low-A affiliate of the Orioles where Estrada spent most of the season. They were one of the worst teams offensively in a league that was marked by struggles by its mostly-young hitters. Overall, Carolina League batters had this batting line: .229\/.325\/.336. That\u2019s rough, and Delmarva\u2019s batters were worse in all three of the triple slash categories.<\/p>\n
Although Estrada was even younger than much of the competition in this lowest-level league, that did not prove much of a barrier to accumulating some fantastic batting numbers. In 91 games for the Shorebirds, Estrada\u2019s batting line was, considering his age and competition level, simply fantastic: .296\/.361\/.434. He hit eight home runs and stole 31 bases all while keeping a low strikeout rate of about 16.8%.<\/p>\n
This is impressive stuff from Estrada. There\u2019s a modern stat that\u2019s called Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) that takes a player\u2019s performance and adjusts it to his league environment and the parks he played in. 100 is average and higher is better. It works for minor leaguers as well as major leaguers.<\/p>\n
Estrada checked in at a 133 wRC+, so he was 33% beyond the average Carolina League batter\u2019s performance. Obviously, Low-A pitchers are a much easier task to conquer than MLB-level ones, but that 133 wRC+ would have been second-best on the Orioles team, behind only Gunnar Henderson. Estrada was even better compared to his league peers than Anthony Santander, Jordan Westburg, and everybody else were for the Orioles.<\/p>\n
The performance at Delmarva was enough to get Estrada a promotion to the High-A affiliate at Aberdeen for the final month-plus of the season. At that level, Estrada\u2019s performance was a step back, with an OPS of .678 in 26 games played there. Considering that this was a 19-year-old going up against a lot of players 22 and older, that\u2019s something where you can say \u201che held his own.\u201d<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a phrase commonly deployed among prospect writers for a player who was not clearly outclassed even if he didn\u2019t stand out. It\u2019s a good first step and you can hope for movement in a positive direction. We would all be a lot happier if Jackson Holliday had met the \u201cheld his own\u201d level in MLB this year. (Actually, if you take out his April games, he did.)<\/p>\n
Up to this point, this modest step forward has not resulted in a ton of prospect stock for Estrada. He checks in at #29 on the most recent update to MLB Pipeline\u2019s ranking of Orioles, but isn\u2019t on Baseball America\u2019s top 30 or a 41-deep list on FanGraphs. It\u2019s going to take more than Delmarva numbers to get Estrada going higher up these lists.<\/p>\n
One reason that Estrada is probably always going to have to overcome some skepticism as he climbs the minor league ladder is that he\u2019s only listed at 5\u20198\u201d, which probably means he\u2019s even shorter than that. Currently listed at 142 lbs, he\u2019ll have to grow into some strength if he\u2019s going to have much chance at higher levels as well.<\/p>\n
This could have already started happening to some extent, as prospect height\/weight numbers take some time to adjust to reality. Keeping track of that kind of thing for public databases is not a high priority for anyone. For an extreme example: Two years ago, F\u00e9lix Bautista was listed at 6\u20195\u201d 220 lbs. and now he\u2019s listed at 6\u20198\u201d and 285 lbs. The reason for this is not that Bautista grew three inches or gained 65 pounds from ages 27-29. It\u2019s just that once he became a player to know, they got around to fixing out-of-date numbers.<\/p>\n
Since getting into the pro ranks, Estrada has played second base more than any other position, while also getting into a decent amount of games at shortstop, with some left field and center field time mixed in as well. A pessimistic view would be that he\u2019s not good enough to stick at one position.<\/p>\n
More generously, this level of athletic ability giving him positional versatility could give Estrada a possible future as a super-utility kind of player. If your backup infielder can hit from both sides of the plate, steal a few bases, and also play in the outfield in a pinch, that\u2019s not too bad. There\u2019s a lot going into that \u201cif\u201d to get Estrada from where he was in the 2024 season up to the MLB level. If he can keep advancing at roughly a level per season, we\u2019d be seeing him in the Orioles roster mix in late 2027 or early 2028. Or they could trade him before then, if some other team takes a liking to his talent.<\/p>\n
For 2025, Estrada is likely to start back up with the Aberdeen IronBirds, where he\u2019ll be playing in the infield alongside of 2024 draft picks Ethan Anderson and Griff O\u2019Ferrall, as well as another signee from that 2022 Orioles international class, Leandro Arias. The scouting consensus has Arias as the better prospect, but there\u2019s no question who had the better 2024 season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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