{"id":53738,"date":"2025-05-08T06:51:09","date_gmt":"2025-05-08T06:51:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=53738"},"modified":"2025-05-08T06:51:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-08T06:51:09","slug":"why-ryan-presslys-underlying-numbers-are-concerning-beyond-chicago-cubs-closers-historically-bad-outing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=53738","title":{"rendered":"Why Ryan Pressly\u2019s underlying numbers are concerning \u2014 beyond Chicago Cubs closer\u2019s historically bad outing"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Ten hours after a career-worst outing, Chicago Cubs closer Ryan Pressly was back at Wrigley Field looking to get to work.<\/p>\n

Pressly surrendered nine runs, including a career-high eight earned runs, in the 11th inning of the Cubs\u2019 14-5 loss to the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday night and in the process became the eighth reliever in Major League Baseball history to face at least eight batters without recording an out.<\/p>\n

The nine runs the Cubs allowed in the 11th were the most they\u2019ve given up in a single extra inning in franchise history, according to team historian Ed Hartig.<\/p>\n

\u201cI mean, I thought I executed my pitches really well, wasn\u2019t really leaving anything over the middle part of the plate,\u201d Pressly said afterward. \u201cI just didn\u2019t get my job done. I was the only one tonight that didn\u2019t do my job.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s tough, it sucks, but I\u2019ve got to get ready to go tomorrow.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pressly arrived at Wrigley at 8 a.m. Wednesday, ready to do dry work in the bullpen and eager to move forward.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs a coach, you want to be around those guys that want to continue to try to get better and are going to do whatever they have to do to do what\u2019s best for them and for the team,\u201d pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said. \u201cAnd for him to take that rough night last night \u2014 he\u2019s like, \u2018I didn\u2019t sleep anyway, let\u2019s get to work\u2019 \u2014 and as a coach, that\u2019s a cool place to be.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe has been in places in the past where he struggled and then gone on amazing runs, and he\u2019s capable of doing it again.\u201d<\/p>\n

While Pressly\u2019s outing was historically awful, it came after 10 consecutive scoreless appearances. But even that run of shutout innings doesn\u2019t fully represent his season. The 36-year-old veteran\u2019s underlying numbers are concerning beyond Tuesday\u2019s performance.<\/p>\n

Photos: Chicago Cubs lose 14-5 after giving up 9 hits in the 11th inning<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Pitchers need to be able to generate whiffs in high-leverage spots, especially after getting to two strikes. Pressly has struggled to tap into that through the first six weeks of the season. His 8.1% strikeout rate is the second-worst among 190 qualified big-league relievers and down from 23.8% in 2024 with the Houston Astros \u2014 which had been the lowest of his career since 2016 with the Minnesota Twins.<\/p>\n

Compounding the lack of strikeouts are a 12.9% walk rate and a whopping 56.3% hard-hit rate, up more than 15% from a year ago. When evaluating Pressly\u2019s lack of whiffs and strikeouts \u2014 only five in 13 innings \u2014 Hottovy thinks the right-hander\u2019s stuff might not be deceptive enough to hitters, allowing them to pick up what he\u2019s throwing more easily.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou could have good pitch data, but I do believe that there are some mechanical things that the hitters are seeing the ball a little early,\u201d Hottovy said. \u201cAnd when you can have good pitch data, good velocity, but if the hitter sees it a tick early, whether it\u2019s subconscious or they\u2019re actually picking it up, it just gives them more time.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe understands what he\u2019s working on mechanically. Now that the knee\u2019s feeling better to get back to being a linear feeling toward the plate, I think it\u2019s going to help with some of the deception.\u201d<\/p>\n

More fastballs up in the zone would help too, Hottovy said. If all of Pressly\u2019s pitches are in one area of the zone, it can lead to more contact and foul balls rather than swings and misses, even if his command is good.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you understand you\u2019re not getting swing and miss, some guys try to get swing and miss from the first pitch,\u201d Hottovy said, \u201cwhich I would say all the time, swing and miss matters with two strikes more than anything. So it\u2019s just him understanding what he\u2019s trying to accomplish early in the count, get ahead and then be able to execute his fastball up that I think will buy him some more room.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Why
Cubs reliever Ryan Pressly sits in the dugout after being pulled in the 11th inning against the Giants on May 6, 2025, at Wrigley Field. (Chris Sweda\/Chicago Tribune)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Despite the concerning numbers, other key metrics such as Pressly\u2019s fastball velocity and pitch-movement profiles are essentially the same as in 2024. Hottovy compared Pressly to former Cubs lefty Jon Lester, two pitchers he both played with and coached and who experienced a lot of success in the majors. But both reached a point in their careers when it became time to work on things they might not have had to in the past, when they were rolling and synced up.<\/p>\n

Pressly is at that point.<\/p>\n

\u201cRyan is in a place where he\u2019s feeling good health-wise, and now he\u2019s ready to be able to put the work in that he knows he needs to do to be better,\u201d Hottovy said.<\/p>\n

Pressly and the Cubs aren\u2019t pinning Tuesday\u2019s disastrous outing on the right knee he had drained April 22 to relieve swelling and discomfort. Pressly said after the outing his body felt great and the knee isn\u2019t a problem, and Hottovy reiterated that Wednesday morning.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat always happens when you deal with lower-body minor injuries,\u201d Hottovy said. \u201cMechanics, you form bad habits, and so it\u2019s kind of like, OK, I feel good now, now I\u2019ve got to work back through all the habits that I was kind of compensating for.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s feeling great with the lower body now. It\u2019s just about the getting the reps consistently.\u201d<\/p>\n

Regular game action will be part of the process of getting Pressly on track. Hottovy believes Pressly is close to being locked in with his delivery, describing the needed mechanical changes as minor adjustments relating to a timing issue versus a problem with his movement pattern.<\/p>\n

Asked whether Pressly could have been tipping his pitches, Hottovy said no and that it\u2019s something the Cubs are always working to stay on top of to ensure that doesn\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s been in organizations in the past that have been on top of the tipping stuff,\u201d Hottovy quipped, cheekily adding, \u201cI\u2019m talking about the Twins.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pressly tends to rely on off-speed stuff down in the zone, which isn\u2019t a secret to hitters. Combating that through better deception and utilizing his full five-pitch repertoire will be an important combination.<\/p>\n

Four days off between his last two outings and pitching just twice since April 27 because of the knee ailment wasn\u2019t ideal. Hottovy estimated Pressly missed a week of consistent work due to the knee.<\/p>\n

The Cubs plan to give Pressly more consistent work, even if that means using him in non-save situations or pregame work in the bullpen. Porter Hodge\u2019s experience gives the Cubs another closer option to balance Pressly\u2019s workload.<\/p>\n

Those limited opportunities over the past week due to how games played out affected Pressly\u2019s usage. Had he not pitched the 11th Tuesday, he would have gone into Wednesday\u2019s game at some point, regardless of the score, given the number of days between appearances plus a day off Thursday.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s going to be opportunities where it\u2019s like, hey, if you haven\u2019t thrown a couple days, we need to get your work day in,\u201d Hottovy said. \u201cIt might not be a high-leverage situation, but we need to get the reps because he\u2019s going to be better down the road by pitching more, and we\u2019ve got to figure out how to navigate that in a series.<\/p>\n

\u201cMore exposure for him right now is going to be good.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ryan Pressly\u2019s 8.1% strikeout rate is the second-worst among 190 qualified relievers. 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