Despite failing to hit consistently at the Major League level in three seasons, the Atlanta Braves created a series of complex deals in order to trade for Jarred Kelenic that eventually cost the team over $20 million and had them end up with a prototypical four-A fourth outfielder.<\/p>\n
Following the 2021 season, Kelenic\u2019s minor league manager predicted great things, but that hasn\u2019t happened yet. Kelenic hits the ball hard and has a slightly above-average barrel rate, but he doesn\u2019t make contact all that often. With Seattle, he struck out<\/strong><\/em> in 30.7%<\/strong><\/em> of his plate appearances and whiffed on offspeed and breaking pitches over 40%<\/strong><\/em> of the time.<\/p>\n In March\/April of 2023, he batted .308\/.366\/.615\/.982, but cooled off to .250\/.304\/.423\/.727 in May and cratered so badly in June that he threw a tantrum, kicked a water cooler, and broke his foot. His season numbers look good, but after mid-May, he wasn\u2019t.<\/p>\n If the Braves had taken only Marco Gonzales\u2019 underwater contract to get the young outfielder, the deal wouldn\u2019t have looked so bad. But Alex Anthopoulos decided to take Evan White\u2019s contract as well, and things got complicated quickly.<\/p>\n The only player the Braves wanted was Kelenic, so the club had to trade the others to clear roster space. If the club had released Gonzalez and White, it would have cost them an additional $4.7M in CBT payroll, which would have made the deal far worse.<\/p>\n Warning: math stuff ahead. (All dollar amounts are in millions of dollars.)<\/p>\n When the dust settled, the Braves were on the hook for most of the Gonzalez ($9.25) and Stassi ($6.26) contracts, and all of Fletcher\u2019s contract in 2025 ($6) and 2026 ($8), a total of $21.51. Cash from Seattle ($2.25) offset part of that, leaving $19.26 in 2024 and $8 in AAV \u2013 including Fletcher\u2019s buyout – due in 2026.<\/p>\n Braves\u2019 beat-writer Mark Bowman consistently reports that the club spent $17M to acquire Kelenic. I\u2019m sure he\u2019s correct, but arriving at that number must involve some hair-splitting.<\/p>\n The Braves were CBT payor, for the second time, with a CBT $276.9 payroll, roughly $19.6 above the second CBT threshold of $257 and just below the so-called $277 Cohen tax level. The club paid $14 in CBT, most of that on the money spent to acquire Kelenic, but avoided a draft penalty.<\/p>\n Kelenic posted an 87 OPS+, 47 wRC+, and -0.5 rWAR (-0.04 fWAR) in 2024: if not for his defense, he\u2019d have been at least -1.5 in either flavor of WAR. If the Braves hadn\u2019t committed so much time, money, and effort into acquiring Kelenic, they\u2019d have demoted him last year. He started this season slowly, posting a .531 OPS, 47 wRC+, and -0.5 rWAR (-0.4 fWAR) before being sent to Gwinnett.<\/p>\n His performance and the Braves\u2019 lack of depth meant the club entered the offseason needing help in the bullpen, a starting pitcher, and a left fielder who could hit, but money for only one good one.<\/p>\n It was clear that the CBT was on their mind when they waited until the last minute to sign Jurickson Profar to get him as inexpensively as possible. His positive PED test saved the club half of his 2025 salary, and the team used part of that savings ($1.5) to sign Alex Verdugo.<\/p>\n Profar will return mid-season, but which Profar will the club get? Questions were asked about Profar\u2019s ability to be productive long-term before he failed the test, and the history of older players returning from PED suspensions brings those questions into sharper focus.<\/p>\n The Braves paid about $19.6 million for zero production from players on other teams or trying to become a knuckleball pitcher in the minors, and most of the $14 tax on that money in CBT penalties.<\/p>\n Kelenic may find the answer at Gwinnett, but his trajectory so far looks a lot like that of Cameron Maybin. Both were projected as stars of the future, called up early in their career. And struggled. Maybin quickly slipped into a fourth-outfielder role and never became a star. Kelenic may change course, but it would be hard to find anyone willing to bet on that now.<\/p>\n Despite failing to hit consistently at the Major League level in three seasons, the Atlanta Braves created a series of complex deals in order to trade for Jarre<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":52745,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb"],"yoast_head":"\nThe best deals are simple deals, and the Kelenic deal was neither<\/h3>\n
\nThe cost of the Kelenic experiment<\/h3>\n
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The Kelenic trade is still impacting the Braves roster<\/h3>\n
That\u2019s a Wrap<\/h3>\n
More Braves News from House That Hank Built<\/h3>\n