{"id":4817,"date":"2024-11-05T14:07:54","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T14:07:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=4817"},"modified":"2024-11-05T14:07:54","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T14:07:54","slug":"sean-mcadam-red-sox-qualifying-offer-to-nick-pivetta-a-strange-start-to-offseason","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=4817","title":{"rendered":"Sean McAdam: Red Sox\u2019 qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta a strange start to offseason"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p id=\"YZJDOQUILZGH5EO5ZMF6RT5LWQ\">Several weeks ago, I was speaking with Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow about various scenarios this winter. When the subject came to the qualifying offer, I tried to get a sense of whether the Sox might be considering a QO for free agent outfielder Tyler O\u2019Neill.<\/p>\n<p id=\"MV2C454THVEXLNAKGZLZEUJGSM\">Breslow mostly spoke in generalities and said decisions like that hadn\u2019t yet been finalized.<\/p>\n<p id=\"3GBGJRAW4NFVVNDMLDT522JTSA\">Then, he added: \u201cOne thing you have to remember \u2014 if you give a QO, you\u2019d better be prepared for it to be accepted.\u201d<\/p>\n<p id=\"LYTHF3KQJBAGFPHBNLFRX2TDAM\">I thought about that late Monday afternoon when it was reported that the Sox were\u2019t going to give a qualifying offer to O\u2019Neill \u2014 I thought all along that such a strategy had been a distinct longshot \u2014 but were instead giving one to Nick Pivetta, which I had barely considered as a possibility.<\/p>\n<p id=\"U3B7YOQHSVBM3CXIPLTNBU4PTU\">After all, there\u2019s no way Pivetta would come anywhere close to an AAV of $21.05 million on the free agent market. Most salary projections had Pivetta landing a three-year deal with an AAV of somewhere around $15-16 million. Yes, Pivetta has (mostly) been durable, averaging a tick over 155 innings in the last four seasons. And yes, he\u2019s a decent back-end option. But in that four-seasons stretch, Pivetta is 35-41 with a 4.33 ERA and a 102 ERA+. That fairly screams: league-average!<\/p>\n<p id=\"2T6I7ZBYK5FKXH4SBN3S767KZU\">Should Pivetta accept the qualifying offer, he would be a serviceable piece for their staff next year. He represents depth, versatility and has already shown the ability to compete in Boston. But a rotation that already had Lucas Giolito, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford didn\u2019t need Nick Pivetta. It needed \u2014 and <i>needs \u2014 <\/i>a front-of-the-rotation type.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><i><b>BETTING:<\/b><\/i><i> Check out our <\/i>MA sports betting guide<i>, where you can learn basic terminology, definitions and how to read odds for those interested in learning how to bet in Massachusetts.<\/i><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p id=\"ETTJETWVZBABXKU2OU4F55W2NY\">The worry among Red Sox fans is that if Pivetta accepts, the Red Sox will have spent about $40 million on two starters who aren\u2019t close to being No. 1 starters. Giolito, as expected, last week chose to exercise his 2025 option for $19 million. But Giolito is coming off major elbow surgery, missed all of last year and it\u2019s uncertain how much of a workload he can assume in 2025.<\/p>\n<p id=\"7XXHAEF3Z5GT3PQSCWRJ6T3R24\">Then there\u2019s Pivetta, who has never posted an ERA under 4.04 and never won more than 10 games in a season, who only two years ago pitched himself out of the Boston rotation and landed, quite unhappily, in the bullpen for the middle part of the season.<\/p>\n<p id=\"O7W7RVWBQZDONEKSTUM35S3OXY\">Is that all there is?<\/p>\n<p id=\"3XUVJ6DX25HVFGWXPUYZ2ANVKY\">That remains to be seen. Having committed $40 million to the duo, do the Red Sox have the stomach \u2014 or the budgetary room \u2014 to pursue a true front-of-the-rotation starter like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried?<\/p>\n<p id=\"4SAB3ZVQPJEW3JWXMAGAQPBIXY\">And if they don\u2019t go the free agent route, are they willing to give up multiple young players to acquire a starter via trade? Does Pivetta\u2019s potential return signal a willingness to trade away more inexpensive rotation options like Houck or Crawford? Time will tell.<\/p>\n<p id=\"4G6GNU6LENEXLABMLNSCTI3VB4\">Most free agents have traditionally declined qualifying offers, and Pivetta may join that list. At 31, he may want some multi-year security. Or, he may find $21.05 million too much to pass up, in which case the rotation is already crowded, and frankly, not much better than it was a year ago.<\/p>\n<p id=\"Y2TYTA45DFAUXHMB2MMEJWGDQU\">Perhaps there\u2019s a method to the Red Sox\u2019 madness. It\u2019s possible that Breslow and Co. correctly anticipated the cost of starting pitching to skyrocket on the free agent front, and in anticipation of Pivetta receiving offers higher than previous anticipated, they\u2019re confident he\u2019ll reject the QO, thus guaranteeing the Sox an additional draft pick in compensation.<\/p>\n<p id=\"QV5YCUKIDVG55EAQEOTFBABFXM\">After all, of the 13 players given qualifying offers Monday, six were starting pitchers. Other than Burnes, Fried and Pivetta, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Nick Martinez were also recipients.<\/p>\n<p id=\"JASBFWCZGBHJXP7Q2WUIVWQLOI\">It would have made more sense had the Sox given O\u2019Neill the qualifying offer instead of Pivetta. That, too, would have represented an overpay. But at least O\u2019Neill would have filled an obvious need \u2014 that of a righthanded run producer. He led the team in homers with 31 last year and his .511 slugging percentage was just behind Rafael Devers\u2019 team-best .515.<\/p>\n<p id=\"CGIW2JXNTFAE3H6OLDG2UWXRTI\">True, O\u2019Neill is a risk because of his injury history (he\u2019s played more than 100 games only twice), but a one-year deal would have greatly limited the team\u2019s liability.<\/p>\n<p id=\"SXDER63XHNGFXLZAERZ6Y7DYYU\">Now, somehow, the Red Sox must find someone to balance out a lefty-heavy lineup.<\/p>\n<p id=\"MJ3TKKBVYRC5LOPAMDBHZT6424\">But first they have to address the team\u2019s primary need: adding an elite starter. Nick Pivetta doesn\u2019t fit that description, or least hasn\u2019t to date. The odds of him transforming into that for 2025 are, frankly, slim. Worse, if he accepts the qualifying offer, the Red Sox will have $21 million less in resources to fill that necessity.<\/p>\n<section>\n<ul data-testid=\"list\">\n<li>15 former Red Sox are free agents including Alex Verdugo, Mets\u2019 pop star<\/li>\n<li>Will Red Sox add closer to replace Kenley Jansen? Justin Slaten a candidate?<\/li>\n<li>Red Sox boss explains decision to offer own free agent $21.05M; what\u2019s next?<\/li>\n<li>Red Sox make surprise decision, give qualifying offer to veteran starter<\/li>\n<li>Yankees make decision about ace after he opted out of contract (report)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<p>If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and\/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Surprising many, the Red Sox decided to give a qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta. Here&#8217;s what that tells us about how they&#8217;re approaching things this winter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":4822,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4817","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Sean McAdam: Red Sox\u2019 qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta a strange start to offseason - NEWS USA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=4817\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sean McAdam: Red Sox\u2019 qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta a strange start to offseason - NEWS USA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Surprising many, the Red Sox decided to give a qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta. 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