Part 1 of a two-part series. With Jimmy Butler gone, the Heat still needs a new leading man to augment the Bam Adebayo\/Tyler Herro core and relieve some of the offensive pressure off both of them. Finding that player will be tricky, as it has been for several years.<\/p>\n
But at least the Heat has more flexibility this summer, under the constraints of the NBA salary tax and cap rules, than it would have had if Butler had remained on the Heat\u2019s roster and exercised his $52.4 million player option as part of a continued awkward standoff. The transaction also delivered a potentially helpful perk: a $16 million trade exception that Miami can use to acquire a player. Offloading Butler\u2019s contract for next season \u2014 while taking back Andrew Wiggins\u2019 $28.2 million and Kyle Anderson\u2019s $9.2 million salaries for next year \u2014 leaves Miami with $176.2 million committed to 12 players for 2025-26.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s about $11 million below the projected $187.9 luxury tax threshold and well below the projected $195.9 million first apron and $207.8 million second apron. But it\u2019s well above the projected $154.6 million salary cap. And that $176.2 million in 2025-26 commitments doesn\u2019t include impending restricted free agent guard Davion Mitchell and rookie forward Keshad Johnson\u2019s $1.9 million team option.<\/p>\n
It also doesn\u2019t include either of two possible first-round picks that the Heat could end up with in June. Miami will keep its 2025 first-round pick if it misses the playoffs (otherwise it would go to Oklahoma City) and would get Golden State\u2019s 2025 first-round pick if it\u2019s outside the top 10. So, hypothetically, if the Heat had two first-round picks in June, both in the range of 11 to 14 in the draft, that would add between $4.6 million and $5.4 million in salary per pick. Suddenly, in that scenario, the Heat would be at the tax line with 15 players (including the two first-rounders and Johnson) and not even including Mitchell. Among Heat players on standard contracts, only Alec Burks will automatically be a free agent in July.<\/p>\n
If Miami makes Mitchell a qualifying offer to retain a right to match outside offers, he would be on the Heat\u2019s books for $8.7 million until he signs somewhere. If he re-signs with Miami, his actual salary would replace that $8.7 million cap hold. So if Miami keeps Mitchell and Johnson, that would put at least 14 players under contract and modest, if any, room under the tax line, even if the Heat doesn\u2019t end up with a first-round pick in June. But that\u2019s still a better situation, from a flexibility standpoint, than entering the offseason with an unhappy Butler on the books.<\/p>\n
The Heat has at least one option to create more flexibility: Miami could shave its payroll by $10 million if it releases Duncan Robinson in the July 7 to 9 range, but that would eliminate the ability to use his contract as a facilitator in a trade. Only $9.9 million of Robinson\u2019s $19.8 million salary is guaranteed in 2025-26. That increases to a full guarantee if Miami doesn\u2019t waive him on or before two days after the end of the early July moratorium period or if Miami wins an NBA championship this season and Robinson achieves certain minutes and games played thresholds.<\/p>\n
Here are potential scenarios in play this summer, with the understanding that the Heat likely will try to make significant changes if the team plays poorly the rest of the season (possibly including revisiting the Kevin Durant trade option):<\/p>\n
\u25aa The most spending money scenario: If the Heat gets no first-round pick (which would happen if the Warriors have a top-10 pick and the Heat makes the playoffs) and if Miami cuts Robinson and doesn\u2019t re-sign Mitchell or keep Johnson, the Heat would have $166 million in guaranteed salary, about $22 million below the luxury tax line.<\/p>\n
In that scenario, Miami could acquire help by using some or all its $14.1 million midlevel exception and by using some or all of a $16 million trade exception acquired when Miami added Anderson into its midlevel exception at the deadline.<\/p>\n
\u25aa The some spending money scenarios: 1). If the Heat cuts Robinson, has no first-round picks in June and pays Mitchell about $8 million in a one-year deal, Miami would have about $13 million in spending money this summer without surpassing the tax line. 2).<\/p>\n
If Miami keeps Robinson but parts with Mitchell and Johnson and has no first-round picks, it would be able to use about $10 million of the $14 million midlevel exception without surpassing the tax line.<\/p>\n
\u25aa The no-spending money scenarios: This would happen if Miami keeps Robinson and either has both draft picks or signs Mitchell to a one-year deal in the $8 million range. In that case, the Heat likely would not use exception money, because that would leave them a tax team for the third time in four years. Teams that are close to the tax, or above it, are limited to using a $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception this summer, as opposed to the full $14 million exception. But it\u2019s dubious if the Heat would use that money if it puts them over the tax.<\/p>\n
Paying Robinson $9.9 million simply to leave would be unpleasant; the Heat presumably would far prefer to offload his $19.9 million salary in a trade if it decides to deal him. But if Miami cannot trade Robinson, then the decision about whether to cut him should come down to this: Would clearing out that money allow Miami to sign a free agent or trade for a player it covets (using the midlevel exception or trade exception) that it otherwise couldn\u2019t use if it wants to avoid another year as a tax team?<\/p>\n
Impending free agents who could be in the mix for exception money this summer include New Orleans guard Bruce Brown; Brooklyn guard D\u2019Angelo Russell; Bucks players Brook Lopez, Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr. and Bobby Portis; Atlanta center Clint Capela and guards Terance Mann and Caris LeVert; Brooklyn\u2019s Bojan Bogdanovic; Boston center Al Horford; Minnesota wing Nickiel Alexander-Walker; Lakers wing player Dorian Finney-Smith (if he opts out of $15.3 million); Detroit guards Denis Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr.; Philadelphia\u2019s Kelly Oubre (if he opts out of $8.3 million); Spurs guard Chris Paul; Phoenix guard Tyus Jones and Denver guard Russell Westbrook.<\/p>\n
Other players set for free agency in July \u2014 some of whom will need to settle for minimum deals \u2014 include Washington guard Malcolm Brogdon; Toronto forward Chris Boucher; Memphis guard Luke Kennard; Golden State guard Gary Payton Jr.; Phoenix guard Monte Morris and Chicago guard Jevon Carter. The top players who can become free agents this summer are out of Miami\u2019s price range barring an unexpected trade for any of them: Dallas\u2019 Kyrie Irving (expected to opt out of $43.9 million and stay longterm with Dallas), Minnesota\u2019s Julius Randle (expected to opt of $30.9 million for next season), Indiana\u2019s Myles Turner, the Lakers\u2019 LeBron James (has a $52.6 million player option) and the Clippers\u2019 James Harden, who has a $36.6 million player option.<\/p>\n
Detroit\u2019s Malik Beasley, who is averaging nearly 17 a game and is second in the league in made threes, could end up with exception money or something greater. Keep in mind that offering any of those players (except the stars) more than a one-year deal would be inadvisable because it would further reduce Heat cap space in 2026. The Terry Rozier situation also is worth noting. As reported by The Wall Street Journal last month, prosecutors from the Eastern District of New York \u2014 as part of an ongoing criminal investigation into illegal sports betting schemes \u2014 are trying to determine whether Rozier, while a member of Hornets, altered his play during a game against New Orleans Pelicans on March 23, 2023.<\/p>\n
The NBA said it previously cleared Rozier in its own investigation, but the government has more resources and power to conduct an investigation than a sports league would. Rozier has not been charged with any crime; if he is charged and the NBA bans him for life, his $26.6 million salary for next season (the final year of his contract) immediately would come off the Heat\u2019s books.<\/p>\n
Even if that happened, Miami would be only slightly below the salary cap, meaning it couldn\u2019t make a bid for Irving or Harden with cap space this summer. As it stands, all but $1.7 million of that $26.6 million salary is guaranteed, and Miami isn\u2019t cutting him to save $1.7 million. So the Heat isn\u2019t in an awful position this summer in the sense that it won\u2019t be limited by any first- or second-apron rules; teams above both aprons cannot take back more money than they send out in trade. But the need for another top scorer appears to be an even greater necessity with Butler now in Golden State.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Part 1 of a two-part series. With Jimmy Butler gone, the Heat still needs a new leading man to augment the Bam Adebayo\/Tyler Herro core and relieve… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":34975,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nba"],"yoast_head":"\n