\n| Total<\/b><\/td>\n | $276,995,508<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Estimations from Roster Resource<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nAnd here is the calculation for their tax payment of ~$14M (the actual payout number was $14,026,496, per ESPN, so my calculation is slightly off):<\/p>\n (If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n \n 2024 Braves Luxury Tax Penalties<\/h3>\n\n\n\n| Category<\/th>\n | Charge<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n | \n\n| Category<\/th>\n | Charge<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tfoot>\n | \n\n| 30% Tax for First $20M over the threshold (30% because they were 2nd year offenders)<\/td>\n | $6,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 42% Tax for $19.14M spent in the second tier (30% base tax + 12% tier 2 surcharge)<\/td>\n | $8,040,496<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Total<\/b><\/td>\n | $14,040,496<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n WHERE DOES THE 2025 PAYROLL STAND?<\/strong><\/p>\nThere is only one reason why a team that can afford to go over the tax would consider going under instead \u2013 to reset the tax so that they can have further financial flexibility in the future. In theory, a team might find themselves in a situation where decreasing the player payroll by $20M for one season in order to reset the tax would allow them to spend $30M more<\/em> in player payroll the following season (because they could have the same luxury tax payroll that they would have had this year but pay only 20% base tax instead of 50% base tax, which means their luxury tax penalties would be less and they could put more of their total budget into the actual players).<\/p>\nNow, you might argue (correctly, in my opinion) that a team in a championship window like Atlanta should probably focus more on maximizing their chances to win in the year that is directly in front of them rather than hurting their chances this year to slightly improve their chances in the next. But, it\u2019s been a slow offseason in Atlanta, so let\u2019s see if this strategy is even applicable for the Braves.<\/p>\n The Braves exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2023 and 2024, meaning they will be penalized with a 50% base tax on all dollars spent over the threshold in 2025 (and even more than that on any money spent over the second tier). According to FanGraphs, here is the Braves current payroll situation:<\/p>\n (If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n \n Current Payroll Situation for 2025<\/h3>\n\n\n\n| Category<\/th>\n | Amount<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n | \n\n| Category<\/th>\n | Amount<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tfoot>\n | \n\n| 2025 Player Payroll<\/td>\n | $201.3M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 2025 Luxury Tax Payroll<\/td>\n | $217.3M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Luxury Tax Threshold (Tier One)<\/td>\n | $241M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| AAV Available to Add Before Reaching Luxury Tax<\/td>\n | $23.7M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n So, if they did <\/em>want to reset the tax, they\u2019d have $23M to spend. What if they didn\u2019t reset the tax? Well, we\u2019d need to start by taking an educated guess at what AA\u2019s \u201ctotal budget\u201d might be. Again, his total budget is the player payroll + tax payments.<\/p>\nAnthopoulos has said that payroll will go up in 2025, and if the past few seasons are any indication, you should take him at his word. Take a look at the Braves player payroll and \u201ctotal payroll\u201d since the first year after the pandemic-shortened season:<\/p>\n (If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n \n Payroll Increases Over Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n| Year<\/th>\n | Player Payroll<\/th>\n | Luxury Tax Penalties<\/th>\n | Total Payroll<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n | \n\n| Year<\/th>\n | Player Payroll<\/th>\n | Luxury Tax Penalties<\/th>\n | Total Payroll<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tfoot>\n | \n\n| 2021<\/td>\n | $146M<\/td>\n | $0<\/td>\n | $146M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 2022<\/td>\n | $187M<\/td>\n | $0<\/td>\n | $187M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 2023<\/td>\n | $205M<\/td>\n | $2.4M<\/td>\n | $207M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 2024<\/td>\n | $232M<\/td>\n | $14M<\/td>\n | $246M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n So, the lowest increase in total payroll over the past 4 years has been the $20M increase from 2022-2023. Let\u2019s be conservative and guess that AA\u2019s total budget in 2025 will be $260M, just a $14M increase over 2024. If that was the case, they could add $48M in AAV this offseason:<\/p>\n \n- Add $48M<\/strong> AAV<\/li>\n
- Player payroll: $201M \u2192 $249M <\/strong>(to keep things simple, we\u2019ll assume the AAV matches the actual 2025 salary)<\/li>\n
- Luxury tax payroll: $217M \u2192 $265M ($4M into the second tier)<\/li>\n
- 3rd time offender so 50% tax on the first $20M over the CBT threshold = $8M penalty<\/strong><\/li>\n
- 62% tax on the $4M in the 2nd tier = $2.5M penalty<\/strong><\/li>\n
- TOTAL payroll: $259.5M<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
So, if my guess on their $260M total budget is accurate, the Braves would be sacrificing the potential of $25M in additions for 2025 if they decided to reset the tax. Instead of adding $48M in AAV to the roster over the course of this season, they could only add about $23M. Could this be worth it? Could this sacrifice lead to them spending, say, an extra $35-40M in 2026 than what they would be able to spend if they went over the luxury tax threshold again in 2025?<\/p>\n WOULD THE TRADEOFF OF SPENDING LESS THIS YEAR CREATE MORE ROOM TO SPEND IN 2026 AND BEYOND?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe short answer: no. It\u2019s not even close.<\/p>\n To get to the longer answer, we\u2019ll look at two scenarios: how much could they spend in 2026 if they reset the tax vs. how much could they spend if they don\u2019t reset the tax.<\/p>\n First, a quick look at the 2026 luxury tax tiers:<\/p>\n \n- Tier One: $244M<\/li>\n
- Tier Two: $264M<\/li>\n
- Tier Three: $284M<\/li>\n
- Tier Four: $304M<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Now we\u2019ll look at the current state of the 2026 payroll:<\/p>\n (If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n \n 2026 Payroll Situation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n| Category<\/th>\n | MLB Player Payroll<\/th>\n | Luxury Tax Payroll<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n | \n\n| Category<\/th>\n | MLB Player Payroll<\/th>\n | Luxury Tax Payroll<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tfoot>\n | \n\n| Guaranteed Contracts<\/td>\n | $136,500,000<\/td>\n | $113,533,333<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Club Options<\/td>\n | $34,000,000<\/td>\n | $33,325,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Arbitration Salaries<\/td>\n | $7,000,000<\/td>\n | $7,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Pre-Arbitration Salaries<\/td>\n | $12,000,000<\/td>\n | $12,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Buyout for David Fletcher<\/td>\n | $1,500,000<\/td>\n | $1,500,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Minor League Salaries on the 40-man<\/td>\n | $0<\/td>\n | $2,500,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Estimated Player Benefits<\/td>\n | $0<\/td>\n | $18,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Payment into $50M pre-arbitration bonus pool<\/td>\n | $0<\/td>\n | $1,666,667<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| TOTAL<\/b><\/td>\n | $191,000,000<\/td>\n | $189,525,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Estimates from Roster Resource<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nA noteworthy distinction between the 2026 player payroll vs 2025 and especially 2024 \u2013 because most of the players on extensions will be in the expensive portion of their deals, the luxury tax payroll is much more even with the actual player payroll.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s assume that the Braves again raise the total<\/em> payroll from $260M in 2025 to $275M in 2026 (again, a bit smaller of a year-to-year increase than we\u2019ve seen in the past several years).<\/p>\nIf they do<\/em> reset the luxury tax in 2025, here\u2019s how they could get to a $275M total payroll in 2026:<\/p>\n\n- Add $78M<\/strong> in 2026 AAV.<\/li>\n
- 2026 player payroll: $191M \u2192 $269M<\/strong><\/li>\n
- 2026 luxury tax payroll = $189.5M \u2192 $267.5M, $3.5M into the second tier<\/li>\n
- 20% penalty on the first $20M over = $4M penalty<\/strong><\/li>\n
- 32% penalty on the $3.5M in the second tier = $1.1M penalty<\/strong><\/li>\n
- TOTAL payroll = $274.1M<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
And if they do not <\/em>reset the luxury tax in 2025, here\u2019s how much they could spend in 2026:<\/p>\n\n- Add $74M<\/strong> in 2026 AAV<\/li>\n
- 2026 player ayroll: $191M \u2192 $265M<\/strong><\/li>\n
- 2026 luxury tax payroll: $189.5M \u2192 $263.5M, $19.5M into the first tier<\/li>\n
- 50% penalty on the $19.5M overage = $9.75M penalty<\/strong><\/li>\n
- TOTAL payroll = $274.75M<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
To summarize: if the Braves reset the tax in 2025 by spending roughly $25M less than they have in their budget, they will gain the flexibility to spend an additional $4M or so in 2026. A complete nonstarter.<\/p>\n We\u2019ll look at one more example, for the sake of argument \u2013 the Braves reset the tax this year AND add the $25M that they saved in their 2025 budget to their 2026 budget, giving them a $300M \u201ctotal\u201d payroll in 2026:<\/p>\n \n- Add $97M <\/strong>in 2026 AAV<\/li>\n
- 2026 player payroll: $191M \u2192 $288M<\/strong><\/li>\n
- 2026 luxury tax payroll: $189.5M \u2192 $286.5M, $2.5M into the third tier<\/li>\n
- 20% penalty on the first $20M = $4M penalty<\/strong><\/li>\n
- 32% penalty on the $20M in the second tier = $6.4M penalty<\/strong><\/li>\n
- 60% penalty on the $2.5M in the third tier = $1.5M penalty<\/strong><\/li>\n
- TOTAL payroll = $299.9M<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Even in this instance, they only gain $23M in additional player payroll in 2026 by sacrificing $25M in 2025 ($74M added in the scenario where they don\u2019t reset the tax vs. $97M added in the scenario where they reset the tax and add the unused budget to 2026).<\/p>\n It\u2019s true that these calculations involve a good bit of guesswork about what AA\u2019s \u201ctotal budget\u201d could be in both 2025 and 2026, but the narrative remains the same if you adjust the assumed budget in either direction. They simply will not gain enough in 2026 to justify spending that much less in 2025.<\/p>\n Rest assured, Braves fans. Alex Anthopoulos may not have found a deal he loves yet, but he has money to spend and no logical incentive to not spend it. Even if the Braves didn\u2019t raise their total payroll a single cent in 2025 (which would buck a three-year trend), AA could add about $30M this winter and still have $5M or so to add at the deadline. If the budget increases from the past three seasons are an indicator, though, it may yet be closer to $50M that the Braves add this offseason.<\/p>\n It\u2019s never fun to watch other teams get better while yours remains stagnant, but remember, it\u2019s futile to judge an offseason before it is over. There are still six weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training and nearly three months until Opening Day. And for the Braves, it\u2019s a matter of \u201cwho\u201d they\u2019ll add before then, not \u201cif.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Also, a look at how much budget the Braves may have to spend this offseason.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":22382,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb"],"yoast_head":"\n Here\u2019s why the Braves won\u2019t reset the luxury tax - NEWS USA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=22381\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Here\u2019s why the Braves won\u2019t reset the luxury tax - 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