{"id":21762,"date":"2024-12-28T13:51:27","date_gmt":"2024-12-28T13:51:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=21762"},"modified":"2024-12-28T13:51:27","modified_gmt":"2024-12-28T13:51:27","slug":"bcb-after-dark-is-the-zips-projection-right-about-the-cubs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=21762","title":{"rendered":"BCB After Dark: Is the ZiPS projection right about the Cubs?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Welcome to the last Friday in 2024 at your late week, late night coffee shop. We\u2019re selling boozy coffee or a little cafecito if that\u2019s what you prefer. We\u2019ve got excellent wine, mocktails and all the Cubs banter a fan could ask for to kick off the weekend right. Just be sure to bus your tables so we don\u2019t leave a mess for Josh on Monday.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been a blustery snow-filled day here visiting my family, so I had a lot of time to peruse the newest ZiPS projections for the Cubs.<\/p>\n

However, first, let\u2019s listen to some music.<\/p>\n

\n

Last weekend on Saturday Night Live I was reminded of an absolutely great holiday tune I hadn\u2019t heard in ages when Hozier performed a cover of Fairytale of New York:<\/em><\/p>\n

This is a pretty exceptional cover of an excellent 1988 song from The Pogues:<\/p>\n

It was a lovely tribute for an Irish duet that is one of the few Christmas songs I actually want to listen to over and over:<\/p>\n

\n

It was Christmas Eve babe
\nIn the drunk tank
\nAn old man said to me, won\u2019t see another one
\nAnd then he sang a song
\nThe Rare Old Mountain Dew
\nI turned my face away
\nAnd dreamed about you<\/p>\n

Got on a lucky one
\nCame in eighteen to one
\nI\u2019ve got a feeling
\nThis year\u2019s for me and you
\nSo happy Christmas
\nI love you baby
\nI can see a better time
\nWhen all our dreams come true<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

It\u2019s a classic song that is a real twist on the traditional Christmas Carol. Sung through the lens of a man who\u2019s wound up in the drunk tank on Christmas Eve…although, maybe a lot carols are just tales of a life on Christmas:<\/p>\n

\n

They\u2019ve got cars big as bars
\nThey\u2019ve got rivers of gold
\nBut the wind goes right through you
\nIt\u2019s no place for the old
\nWhen you first took my hand
\nOn a cold Christmas Eve
\nYou promised me
\nBroadway was waiting for me<\/p>\n

You were handsome
\nYou were pretty
\nQueen of New York City
\nWhen the band finished playing
\nThey howled out for more
\nSinatra was swinging
\nAll the drunks they were singing
\nWe kissed on a corner
\nThen danced through the night<\/p>\n

The boys of the NYPD choir
\nWere singing Galway Bay
\nAnd the bells were ringing out
\nFor Christmas day<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

You could easily sing this song about Chicago, Philadelphia or Boston \u2014 all great sports cities.<\/p>\n

\n

Meanwhile, the ZiPS projection loves the Cubs? Like might be more excited about this year\u2019s Cubs team as currently assembled than it has been in ages. But don\u2019t take my word for it, take Dan Szymborski\u2019s word for it, courtesy of FanGraphs:<\/p>\n

\n

To get this out of the way, ZiPS absolutely adores<\/em> Chicago\u2019s lineup, from top to bottom and every which way around. ZiPS and the Cubs have been on the same page before \u2014 the projections for Shota Imanaga<\/strong> last winter had me proclaiming that his deal was the offseason\u2019s best signing \u2014 but the projections haven\u2019t been this high on the lineup since the team\u2019s World Series contention days. Now, a lot of that is defense, with Nico Hoerner<\/strong>, Dansby Swanson<\/strong>, and Pete Crow-Armstrong<\/strong> each having elite defensive projections. But there\u2019s a lot of bat in there as well, with six starters projected for a 100 OPS+ or better, and two of the three who aren\u2019t \u2014 Swanson and PCA \u2014 bolstered by their aforementioned defense.<\/p>\n

Indeed, the system\u2019s love for the Cubs was so intense that, as with the 2023 Diamondbacks (a team ZiPS absolutely drooled over), I made sure to double-check that something funny wasn\u2019t going on by projecting the team using an older version of ZiPS. Much like Arizona two years ago, there was basically no change (0.2 WAR). The happy-Cubs effect has gotten stronger since the start of the winter, with the organization jettisoning a number of players ZiPS wasn\u2019t high on (Cody Bellinger<\/strong> and Isaac Paredes<\/strong>), while adding a player who ZiPS has always liked (Kyle Tucker<\/strong>) and finding more playing time for Matt Shaw<\/strong>, who projects to be a decent starter right now. ZiPS even likes Gage Workman<\/strong>, who was picked up in the Rule 5 draft. It\u2019s a smaller move, but while the computer isn\u2019t optimistic about his bat, it had him as one of the best defensive third basemen in the minors.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

This is all high praise from Dan for the team\u2019s hitters. I mean, you had me at \u201cWorld Series contention days.\u201d But it\u2019s worth noting the picture isn\u2019t quite so rosy for the pitchers:<\/p>\n

\n

On the flip side, ZiPS is much less excited about the pitching staff, especially the rotation. Since the computer was already enthusiastic about Imanaga, it sees him about the same as it did last winter, and it likes Justin Steele<\/strong> just fine. But once you get past the top two and Matthew Boyd<\/strong>, who ZiPS really digs despite the injuries given his strong stretch run, it\u2019s a rather \u201cmeh\u201d set of projections, full of serviceable-at-best pitchers with ERAs fancied up by the team\u2019s defense. ZiPS believes that Javier Assad<\/strong> can continue to beat his FIP by more than the defense contributes, but with a 4.48 FIP projection, you\u2019re not going to see a projected ERA in the 3.00s, even with the adjustment.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

No lies detected on the rotation piece. And really you should read Dan\u2019s whole write-up to see the highest and lowest end projections.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t get me wrong, I want to believe in this set of projections. As you can see by this graphic, courtesy of Eephus League:<\/p>\n

\"BCB <\/picture> <\/span>
Cubs ZiPS projection<\/figcaption>FanGraphs<\/cite><\/figure>\n

It is indeed a pretty solid set of projections for the Cubs. The comparison to both the Cubs World Series contenders and the 2023 Diamondbacks team that was in the World Series should not be looked at lightly. Those are all excellent teams and the 2025 Cubs appear to already be in some pretty good company with room in the budget to spare for another starting pitcher or reliever.<\/p>\n

I admit it has me dreaming of playoff games rather than sugar plums.<\/p>\n

But I ask you, Cubs fans, do you agree with the optimistic picture painted by ZiPS for the Cubs batters in 2025? I find myself agreeing with the offensive picture and just pleading with Hoyer and Company to use the room left in the cap to add some arms and really storm the division. What say you?<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Poll<\/h3>\n

What\u2019s your takeaway from the ZiPS projection for the 2025 Cubs?<\/h4>\n
\n
    \n
  • \n
    \n
    12%<\/h6>\n
    \n
    Solid all around, go win the division<\/h6>\n

    (19 votes)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n
    \n
    45%<\/h6>\n
    \n
    Offense looks solid, they could use some pitching help in the bullpen and rotation<\/h6>\n

    (67 votes)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n
    \n
    39%<\/h6>\n
    \n
    Eh, let\u2019s see how it plays out, that\u2019s a lot of movement for replacing Bellinger with Tucker and adding Shaw to the roster<\/h6>\n

    (58 votes)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n
    \n
    2%<\/h6>\n
    \n
    Something else (leave in comments)<\/h6>\n

    (3 votes)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    147 votes total Vote Now<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    At least one well known projection system likes the Cubs a lot<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":21763,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb"],"yoast_head":"\nBCB After Dark: Is the ZiPS projection right about the Cubs? - NEWS USA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=21762\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"BCB After Dark: Is the ZiPS projection right about the Cubs? - NEWS USA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"At least one well known projection system likes the Cubs a lot\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=21762\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"NEWS USA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-12-28T13:51:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/a4-3-3.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"MrThanh\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"MrThanh\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=21762\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=21762\",\"name\":\"BCB After Dark: Is the ZiPS projection right about the Cubs? 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