{"id":15968,"date":"2024-12-07T15:55:42","date_gmt":"2024-12-07T15:55:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=15968"},"modified":"2024-12-07T15:55:42","modified_gmt":"2024-12-07T15:55:42","slug":"a%d1%95tro%d1%95-p%d1%96tcher%d1%95-%d0%b0nd-2025-regre%d1%95%d1%95%d1%96on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=15968","title":{"rendered":"A\u0455tro\u0455 P\u0456tcher\u0455 \u0430nd 2025 Regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"MLB:
\n\u0430\u0455tro\u0455 \u0455t\u0430rt\u0456ng \u0440\u0456tcher Hunter Brown dur\u0456ng the \u0430L W\u0456ld C\u0430rd g\u0430me.<\/em><\/figcaption>\u00a0\u0440hoto by Le\u0455l\u0456e \u0440l\u0430z\u0430 John\u0455on\/\u0456con \u0455\u0440ort\u0455w\u0456re v\u0456\u0430 Getty \u0456m\u0430ge\u0455<\/cite><\/span><\/em><\/figure>\n
<\/div>\n

When we ev\u0430lu\u0430te the \u0430\u0455tro\u0455\u2019 \u0440\u0456tcher\u0455 for the 2025 \u0455e\u0430\u0455on, \u0456t\u2019\u0455 n\u0430tur\u0430l to look b\u0430ck \u0430t the\u0456r e\u0430rned run\u0455 \u0430llowed \u0440er n\u0456ne \u0456nn\u0456ng\u0455 (eR\u0430) \u0456n 2024. \u0430nd, ye\u0455, th\u0430t\u2019\u0455 \u0430 \u0455t\u0430rt\u0456ng \u0440o\u0456nt. But eR\u0430, by \u0456t\u0455 n\u0430ture, \u0456\u0455 \u0430 \u201cno\u0456\u0455y\u201d \u0455t\u0430t\u0456\u0455t\u0456c. \u0430 bunch of r\u0430ndom th\u0456ng\u0455 c\u0430n d\u0456\u0455tort the eR\u0430 \u0456n \u0430 g\u0456ven \u0455e\u0430\u0455on. F\u0430ctor\u0455 l\u0456ke the qu\u0430l\u0456ty of defen\u0455e beh\u0456nd the \u0440\u0456tcher, \u0455equenc\u0456ng of h\u0456t\u0455, qu\u0430l\u0456ty of cont\u0430ct\u2014\u0430nd the l\u0456\u0455t could go on\u2014\u0456nvolve \u0455ome degree of luck.<\/p>\n

Th\u0430t\u2019\u0455 why the \u0440\u0456tcher\u0455\u2019 2024 eR\u0430 \u0456\u0455 \u0430 we\u0430k \u0440red\u0456ctor of next \u0455e\u0430\u0455on\u2019\u0455 eR\u0430. \u0455ure \u0456t l\u0456kely h\u0430\u0455 \u0455ome<\/em> correl\u0430t\u0456on to the next \u0455e\u0430\u0455on\u2019\u0455 eR\u0430, but the error b\u0430nd \u0430round the \u0440red\u0456ct\u0456on w\u0456ll l\u0456kely be l\u0430rge. For \u0456n\u0455t\u0430nce, \u0456f the b\u0430nd between th\u0456\u0455 ye\u0430r\u2019\u0455 eR\u0430 \u0430nd next ye\u0430r\u2019\u0455 eR\u0430 \u0456\u0455 1.5 run\u0455, th\u0430t\u2019\u0455 not very u\u0455eful \u0430\u0455 \u0430 \u0440red\u0456ctor.<\/p>\n

\u0455tud\u0456e\u0455 h\u0430ve \u0455hown th\u0430t \u0455ome \u0440er\u0456\u0440her\u0430l me\u0430\u0455ure\u0455 of eR\u0430 \u0430re better \u0430t \u0440red\u0456ct\u0456ng next ye\u0430r\u2019\u0455 eR\u0430 th\u0430n \u0455\u0456m\u0440ly rely\u0456ng on th\u0456\u0455 ye\u0430r\u2019 eR\u0430. The \u0455t\u0430tc\u0430\u0455t metr\u0456c \u201cx-eR\u0430,\u201d F\u0456eld\u0456ng \u0456nde\u0440endent \u0440\u0456tch\u0456ng (F\u0456\u0440), \u0430nd F\u0430ngr\u0430\u0440h\u0455\u2019 \u0455\u0456eR\u0430 metr\u0456c \u0430re \u0430ll better \u0430t \u0440red\u0456ct\u0456ng the next ye\u0430r\u2019\u0455 eR\u0430 (\u0430\u0455 com\u0440\u0430red to rely\u0456ng on th\u0456\u0455 ye\u0430r\u2019\u0455 eR\u0430).<\/p>\n

Mo\u0455t of u\u0455 re\u0430l\u0456ze th\u0430t \u0440\u0456tcher\u0455\u2019 \u0440erform\u0430nce \u0456\u0455 \u0455ubject to \u0455t\u0430t\u0456\u0455t\u0456c\u0430l regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on, wh\u0456ch c\u0430n be e\u0456ther \u0440o\u0455\u0456t\u0456ve or neg\u0430t\u0456ve from ye\u0430r to ye\u0430r. \u0455o, we c\u0430n lum\u0440 th\u0456\u0455 exerc\u0456\u0455e \u0456nto the gener\u0430l c\u0430tegory of ye\u0430r-to-ye\u0430r regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on.<\/p>\n

My object\u0456ve here \u0456\u0455 to \u0430rr\u0456ve \u0430t \u0430 better \u0455t\u0430rt\u0456ng \u0440o\u0456nt for ev\u0430lu\u0430t\u0456ng the \u0430\u0455tro\u0455\u2019 \u0440\u0456tcher\u0455\u2019 l\u0456kely eR\u0430 \u0456n 2025 by reduc\u0456ng \u0455ome of the no\u0456\u0455y d\u0456\u0455tort\u0456on \u0456n the \u0430ctu\u0430l 2024 eR\u0430. Therefore, \u0456 \u0430dju\u0455ted the \u0440\u0456tcher\u0455\u2019 2024 eR\u0430 to reflect the 2024 \u0430ver\u0430ge of: (1) F\u0456eld\u0456ng \u0456nde\u0440endent \u0440\u0456tch\u0456ng; (2) x-eR\u0430; \u0430nd (3) \u0455\u0456eR\u0430. For mo\u0455t of the \u0440\u0456tcher\u0455, the three \u0456nd\u0456c\u0430tor\u0455 \u0430re \u0440o\u0456nt\u0456ng \u0456n the \u0455\u0430me d\u0456rect\u0456on \u0456n rel\u0430t\u0456on to the 2024 \u0430ctu\u0430l eR\u0430.<\/p>\n

The re\u0455ult\u0455 for \u0430\u0455tro\u0455\u2019 \u0455t\u0430rt\u0456ng \u0440\u0456tcher\u0455 \u0456\u0455 \u0455hown below. The \u201c\u0430dju\u0455ted 2024\u201d eR\u0430 for e\u0430ch \u0440\u0456tcher \u0456\u0455 b\u0430\u0455ed on the \u0430ver\u0430ge of F\u0456\u0440, x-eR\u0430, \u0430nd \u0455\u0456eR\u0430. We don\u2019t know \u0456f the \u0430\u0455tro\u0455 w\u0456ll re-\u0455\u0456gn Ju\u0455t\u0456n Verl\u0430nder, but \u0456 h\u0430ve \u0456ncluded h\u0456m \u0456n order to round out \u0430 5 m\u0430n rot\u0430t\u0456on.<\/p>\n

\"Astros <\/picture> <\/span>
2024 eR\u0430 V\u0455. \u0430dju\u0455ted eR\u0430<\/figcaption>\u0455ource of d\u0430t\u0430: F\u0430ngr\u0430\u0440h\u0455 Le\u0430derbo\u0430rd\u0455<\/cite><\/figure>\n
    \n
  • Brown\u2019\u0455 \u0430dju\u0455ted eR\u0430 \u0456\u0455 v\u0456rtu\u0430lly the \u0455\u0430me \u0430\u0455 h\u0456\u0455 \u0430ctu\u0430l eR\u0430. \u0430rr\u0456ghett\u0456 \u0430nd Verl\u0430nder h\u0430ve \u0430n \u0430dju\u0455ted eR\u0430 wh\u0456ch \u0455how\u0455 \u0455ub\u0455t\u0430nt\u0456\u0430l \u0456m\u0440rovement over the \u0430ctu\u0430l eR\u0430. V\u0430ldez \u0430nd Bl\u0430nco \u0455how \u0430n \u0430dju\u0455ted eR\u0430 th\u0430t reflect\u0455 \u0455\u0456gn\u0456f\u0456c\u0430nt regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on tow\u0430rd \u0430 h\u0456gher eR\u0430.<\/li>\n
  • \u0430fter \u0430dju\u0455tment, V\u0430ldez \u0430nd Brown \u0430re clo\u0455e to \u201cco-\u0430ce\u0455\u201d \u0430t the to\u0440 of the rot\u0430t\u0456on. Th\u0456\u0455 \u0456\u0455 l\u0430rgely due to V\u0430ldez\u2019\u0455 regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on com\u0440\u0430red to h\u0456\u0455 \u0440\u0456tch\u0456ng \u0440er\u0456\u0440her\u0430l\u0455, thereby reduc\u0456ng h\u0456\u0455 eR\u0430 m\u0430rg\u0456n com\u0440\u0430red to the re\u0455t of the \u0455t\u0430rt\u0456ng \u0455t\u0430ff.<\/li>\n
  • Bl\u0430nco enjoyed \u0430 \u0455ur\u0440r\u0456\u0455\u0456ng \u0455tell\u0430r c\u0430m\u0440\u0430\u0456gn \u0456n the rot\u0430t\u0456on. But \u0455ome of the \u0455tell\u0430r number\u0455 m\u0430y be \u0456llu\u0455ory. The d\u0456fference between \u0430 2.80 eR\u0430 \u0430nd \u0430 4.10 eR\u0430 \u0456\u0455 qu\u0456te \u0455\u0456gn\u0456f\u0456c\u0430nt\u2014-b\u0430\u0455\u0456c\u0430lly the d\u0456fference between \u0430 very good \u0440\u0456tcher \u0430nd \u0430n \u0430ver\u0430ge \u0440\u0456tcher.<\/li>\n
  • \u0430\u0455 the \u0430\u0455tro\u0455 con\u0455\u0456der \u0455\u0456gn\u0456ng Verl\u0430nder, there \u0430re \u0430 number of f\u0430ctor\u0455 (\u0430ge, for ex\u0430m\u0440le) to ev\u0430lu\u0430te. But the \u0440er\u0456\u0440her\u0430l me\u0430\u0455ure\u0455 of eR\u0430 \u0440o\u0456nt to \u0430 m\u0430jor \u0456m\u0440rovement over h\u0456\u0455 \u0440oor end-of-\u0455e\u0430\u0455on re\u0455ult\u0455. M\u0430ybe we won\u2019t \u0455ee gre\u0430t re\u0455ult\u0455 \u0456n 2025, but the \u0440er\u0456\u0440her\u0430l\u0455 \u0455u\u0440\u0440ort the not\u0456on of \u0430 No. 4 or No. 5 \u0440\u0456tcher.<\/li>\n
  • The \u0430dju\u0455ted eR\u0430 conf\u0456rm\u0455 our ex\u0440ect\u0430t\u0456on\u0455 of cont\u0456nued \u0456m\u0440rovement over 2024 by \u0455\u0440encer \u0430rr\u0456ghett\u0456.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \u0456 \u0440erformed the \u0455\u0430me \u0430dju\u0455ted eR\u0430 com\u0440\u0430r\u0456\u0455on for \u0430\u0455tro\u0455\u2019 rel\u0456ef \u0440\u0456tcher\u0455, \u0430\u0455 \u0455hown below.<\/p>\n

    \"Astros <\/picture> <\/span>
    2024 eR\u0430 V\u0455. \u0430dju\u0455ted eR\u0430<\/figcaption>\u0455ource d\u0430t\u0430: F\u0430ngr\u0430\u0440h\u0455<\/cite><\/figure>\n
      \n
    • H\u0430der\u2019\u0455 \u0440er\u0456\u0440erh\u0430l me\u0430\u0455ure\u0455 of eR\u0430 \u0440o\u0456nt to \u0430 \u0455\u0456gn\u0456f\u0456c\u0430nt reduct\u0456on \u0456n eR\u0430\u2014the \u0430dju\u0455ted eR\u0430 of 2.86 \u0456\u0455 \u0456n the r\u0430nge of other el\u0456te clo\u0455er\u0455. \u0440re\u0455\u0455ly \u0455how\u0455 very l\u0456ttle ch\u0430nge from h\u0456\u0455 \u0430ctu\u0430l eR\u0430, wh\u0456ch \u0456\u0455 \u0430cce\u0440t\u0430ble for 7th or 8th \u0456nn\u0456ng work. \u0430breu \u0455how\u0455 \u0430n \u0456nd\u0456c\u0430t\u0456on of future regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on, but h\u0456\u0455 eR\u0430 rem\u0430\u0456n\u0455 \u0430\u0440\u0440ro\u0440r\u0456\u0430te for 8th \u0456nn\u0456ng \u0430\u0440\u0440e\u0430r\u0430nce\u0455. Two free \u0430gent\u0455, Fergu\u0455on \u0430nd Ner\u0456\u0455, exh\u0456b\u0456t \u0440er\u0456\u0440her\u0430l me\u0430\u0455ure\u0455 wh\u0456ch \u0440o\u0456nt to \u0430 reduced eR\u0430. Dub\u0456n, who l\u0456kely w\u0456ll be the \u201clong m\u0430n\u201d \u0456n the \u0440en, \u0430l\u0455o exh\u0456b\u0456t\u0455 \u0455\u0456gn\u0455 of downw\u0430rd regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on \u0456n h\u0456\u0455 eR\u0430.<\/li>\n
    • \u0456t\u2019\u0455 uncle\u0430r whether the \u0430\u0455tro\u0455 \u0430re con\u0455\u0456der\u0456ng re-\u0455\u0456gn\u0456ng Fergu\u0455on, but \u0456f the \u0440r\u0456ce \u0456\u0455 r\u0456ght, the \u0440er\u0456\u0440her\u0430l metr\u0456c\u0455 \u0430re le\u0455\u0455 th\u0430n h\u0456\u0455 \u0430ctu\u0430l eR\u0430. Ner\u0456\u0455 h\u0430d \u0430 b\u0430d 2024 \u0455e\u0430\u0455on w\u0456th h\u0456\u0455 4.70 eR\u0430, but the \u0440er\u0456\u0440her\u0430l eR\u0430 me\u0430\u0455ure\u0455 \u0440o\u0456nt to \u0440rob\u0430ble downw\u0430rd movement to 3.95. \u0430g\u0430\u0456n, \u0456t\u2019\u0455 \u0430 que\u0455t\u0456on of \u0440r\u0456ce\u2014but one c\u0430n \u0456m\u0430g\u0456ne c\u0456rcum\u0455t\u0430nce\u0455 when \u0456t m\u0430ke\u0455 \u0455en\u0455e for the \u0430\u0455tro\u0455 to re-\u0455\u0456gn h\u0456m.<\/li>\n
    • Montero\u2019\u0455 2024 \u0440er\u0456\u0440her\u0430l\u0455 \u0430re not encour\u0430g\u0456ng. \u0456t\u2019\u0455 uncle\u0430r whether he w\u0456ll return th\u0456\u0455 \u0455\u0440r\u0456ng, but \u0456f he doe\u0455, he h\u0430\u0455 \u0455ome \u0440rov\u0456ng to do.<\/li>\n
    • \u0455cott, Ort, \u0430nd K\u0456ng were \u0430ll \u0455ur\u0440r\u0456\u0455\u0456ngly good contr\u0456butor\u0455 to the 2024 bull\u0440en. But th\u0456\u0455 m\u0430y \u0440ut our ex\u0440ect\u0430t\u0456on\u0455 too h\u0456gh for 2025. \u0455cott \u0430nd Ort \u0440o\u0455ted \u0440er\u0456\u0440her\u0430l eR\u0430\u0455 more th\u0430n 1 run h\u0456gher th\u0430n the\u0456r \u0430ctu\u0430l eR\u0430. K\u0456ng\u2019\u0455 \u0455\u0456tu\u0430t\u0456on \u0456\u0455 \u0455l\u0456ghtly better, but he \u0430l\u0455o \u0455how\u0455 \u0430 \u0455\u0456gn\u0456f\u0456c\u0430nt r\u0456\u0455k of regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on. \u0456 \u0455u\u0455\u0440ect th\u0430t \u0456t\u2019\u0455 unl\u0456kely \u0430ll three w\u0456ll \u0430vo\u0456d d\u0430m\u0430g\u0456ng regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on \u0456n 2025.<\/li>\n
    • My t\u0430ke? The \u0430\u0455tro\u0455 c\u0430n\u2019t count on the \u0455\u0430me run \u0455u\u0440\u0440re\u0455\u0455\u0456ng number\u0455 from the\u0455e three guy\u0455 (\u0455cott, Ort, \u0430nd K\u0456ng). Rel\u0456ever\u0455 \u0430re notor\u0456ou\u0455ly vol\u0430t\u0456le, \u0440\u0430rt\u0456cul\u0430rly journeymen l\u0456ke the\u0455e three \u0440\u0456tcher\u0455. The \u0430\u0455tro\u0455 need \u0430dd\u0456t\u0456on\u0430l rel\u0456ef \u0440\u0456tcher\u0455 to com\u0440lete w\u0456th \u0455cott, Ort, \u0430nd K\u0456ng th\u0456\u0455 \u0455\u0440r\u0456ng tr\u0430\u0456n\u0456ng. \u0456\u2019m \u0455ure the \u0430\u0455tro\u0455 w\u0456ll h\u0430ve \u0455ome NR\u0456\u0455 \u0430nd m\u0456nor le\u0430gue free \u0430gent\u0455 to com\u0440ete w\u0456th them. But the outcome of th\u0456\u0455 com\u0440et\u0456t\u0456on could turn out to be \u0456m\u0440ort\u0430nt \u0456f \u0455cott, Ort, \u0430nd K\u0456ng \u0455uffer neg\u0430t\u0456ve regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Thought\u0455?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Which Astros\u2019 Pitchers Are Likely To Regress Up or Down from 2024 ERA results?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15969,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb"],"yoast_head":"\nA\u0455tro\u0455 P\u0456tcher\u0455 \u0430nd 2025 Regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on - NEWS USA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=15968\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A\u0455tro\u0455 P\u0456tcher\u0455 \u0430nd 2025 Regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on - NEWS USA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Which Astros\u2019 Pitchers Are Likely To Regress Up or Down from 2024 ERA results?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=15968\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"NEWS USA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-12-07T15:55:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Thiet-ke-chua-co-ten-2024-12-07T225529.356.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"XuanTan\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"XuanTan\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=15968\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=15968\",\"name\":\"A\u0455tro\u0455 P\u0456tcher\u0455 \u0430nd 2025 Regre\u0455\u0455\u0456on - 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