{"id":127511,"date":"2025-12-02T07:47:42","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T07:47:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=127511"},"modified":"2025-12-02T07:47:42","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T07:47:42","slug":"en-a-newly-leaked-evaluation-of-aaron-bummer-has-stunned-braves-fans-as-analysts-unveil-surprising-details-about-his-2025-performance-arc-early-notes-suggest-his-impact-might-be-far-deeper-than-the","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportnews.azontree.com\/?p=127511","title":{"rendered":"EN: A newly leaked evaluation of Aaron Bummer has stunned Braves fans as analysts unveil surprising details about his 2025 performance arc. Early notes suggest his impact might be far deeper than the box score reveals. The buzz across Atlanta is growing rapidly as insiders hint at a major turnaround."},"content":{"rendered":"

Generally-speaking, I\u2019m not a huge fan of reliever extensions and long-term contracts, unless you\u2019re one of the tippy-top relievers in the game. They\u2019re too volatile, and their lifespans in the game are too short.<\/p>\n

but sometimes, you get a super cheap one that you can\u2019t pass up, and the Chicago White Sox got one of those in Aaron Bummer, when they signed him to a 5-year, $16 million extension prior to the 2020 season. The contract was fairly even from year-to-year, and he made nearly $14 million through 2024 (the rest of the guarantee was for buyouts in 2025 and 2026). During that time, he produced about 3.5 wins. That\u2019s not \u2026 a lot, but it\u2019s worth the $14 million, and then some. (It\u2019s worth noting that Bummer\u2019s extension came when he would\u2019ve been paid arbitration-eligible money, rather than free agent money, so the White Sox didn\u2019t get a gigantic<\/em> savings. Still, he was coming off 1.5 excellent seasons of relief, so you can see why they locked in his salary the way they did.)<\/p>\n

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With two team options clicking on at $7.25 million for 2025 and 2026, the Atlanta Braves restructured the contract with Bummer to guarantee him $13 million over those years. Bummer gave up some potential earnings for some security. In doing so, he also chained himself to a team that had seemingly little interest in using him in higher leverage, as befits his production.<\/p>\n

How acquired<\/h5>\n

The Braves, just a little over two years ago, acquired Bummer in a mildly hilarious trade of five players \u2013 Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster, Nicky Lopez, Braden Shewmake, and Riley Gowens. There were \u2026 names in this trade, but Soroka was broken by then (sadface), Shuster was basically already deemed not good, and Shewmake\u2019s early prospect luster was mostly gone.<\/p>\n

The White Sox are a Bad(TM) organization, they apparently believed the 6.59 ERA in 2023, and they were essentially dumping the contract. Whoops.<\/p>\n

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What were the expectations?<\/h5>\n

Bummer went back to being a fantastic lefty reliever in 2024. He kept striking out batters at a good clip (28 percent), and he nearly halved his 2023 walk rate (7.4 percent, down from 13 percent), which was the main point of concern in 2023. And of course, he added in a nearly 60 percent groundball rate. He got 1.1 fWAR for his efforts, and it would\u2019ve been higher had the Braves not decided that Bummer needed to toil in lower leverage for some reason. He had the eighth-highest average leverage when entering a game among 2024 relievers, despite the second-best FIP- and best xFIP-, giving him the third-most fWAR.<\/p>\n

Basically every expected pitching metric clocked Bummer as a mid-to-upper 2.00 \u201ctrue\u201d ERA reliever. The 3.58 ERA is basically something I\u2019m blaming on the defense (.386 BABIP). That\u2019s enough to be worth about a win.<\/p>\n

The Braves basically expected something similar, perhaps somewhat lower a la 0.7 WAR, but still in the \u201cwell above average reliever\u201d range. He was their left-handed do-everything reliever, and do-everything included the very real possibility that he\u2019d be banished to low leverage again for some reason.<\/p>\n

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2025 results<\/h5>\n

They weren\u2019t as good. A 3.81 ERA was pretty indicative of his season, and he got about a half win of value. His overall line was a 90 ERA-, 87 FIP-, and 89 xFIP-. The Braves also didn\u2019t even bother pretending he was going to be used in high leverage, as he had by far the lowest average leverage for any of their four relievers that completed 50 innings in 2025, was essentially tied with Enyel De Los Santos in type of usage despite the latter getting kicked off the roster, and only barely exceeded the average leverage of someone like Dylan Dodd. The Braves had 14 relievers throw ten or more innings for them in 2025, and only three (Scott Blewett, Austin Cox, and Dane Dunning) were using in an even greater proportion of mop-up situations than Bummer. He finished with 0.4 fWAR, which was okay, but also his lowest total when completing the lion\u2019s share of a season in the majors.<\/p>\n

You can see the downward trend below. 2024 \u2026<\/p>\n

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Then 2025 \u2026<\/p>\n

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He was heavily used, netting 54 innings before landing on the Injured List with shoulder inflammation and then ultimately hitting the 60-day IL in mid-September.<\/p>\n

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Bummer kinda-sorta changed his pitch mix, adding a curveball-type pitch that was basically his pre-existing sweeper, but with more drop. It didn\u2019t really have the desired effect, as hitters fared better against both the more-drop curve version and the less-drop sweeper version than 2024\u2019s sweeper; his sinker command also got notably worse in 2025. Whether all of the regression came due to the change in his arsenal, shoulder issues that forced him out of action late in the year, or dejection from basically being a mop-up guy whose demotion to this status was wholly unwarranted, we\u2019ll never know \u2014 but it\u2019s in the books now, anyway.<\/p>\n

What went right?<\/h5>\n

Ultimately, the results were okay. Basically everything backed up for various, but he still got a ton of groundballs (54 percent) along with missing enough bats to be effective.<\/p>\n

We also had this nifty pick-off of Xavier Edwards on August 9th.<\/p>\n

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And he snagged this comebacker against the Brewers.<\/p>\n

View Link<\/p>\n

His highest WPA games were ones where he actually went multiple innings, though.<\/p>\n

On April 22nd, he bridged the gap in a weird one where Scott Blewett took the start and made it to the 4th before surrendering a leadoff walk, and Bummer came in to finish the that in that inning and took a second inning, striking out three. He stuck around for the offense to turn a 2-0 deficit into a 4-2 lead, but the bullpen later \u2026 blew it such that the game turned into a blowout loss. Still, Bummer did well, albeit once again being used in a bizarre innings-eating role.<\/p>\n

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In his penultimate assistance on August 17th, he helped the Braves win one by bridging an Erick Fedde start. He wasn\u2019t a sharp in that one, but he was ultimately effective.<\/p>\n

What went wrong?<\/h5>\n

Everything honestly went the wrong direction for Bummer.<\/p>\n

After his velocity dropped an mph in 2024, we didn\u2019t really care because he was so effective. But his velocity dropped \u2026 gulp \u2026 two more mph in 2025, and that had a negative effect on his ability to miss bats.<\/p>\n

That led to his stuff regressing across the board.<\/p>\n

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\"2025<\/p>\n

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That didn\u2019t help him miss bats.<\/p>\n

The strikeout rate plummeted to 22 percent from 28 percent, and while groundballs have airways saved Bummer, that also decreases from 58-59 percent to 54 percent.<\/p>\n

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When all off these things regress, it\u2019s not good. He stayed fairly effective, but he\u2019ll need to improve in 2026. Or, if the Braves are committed to using him as a mop-up guy, then whatever.<\/p>\n

Something getting a shoutout for \u201cwhat went wrong?\u201d was the Braves\u2019 commitment to forcing him to eat innings while starting, as their rotation was getting decimated. On July 12, he started a game against the Cardinals and made his way through an inning, as his offense took a 3-0 lead against eventual Braves Erick Fedde. The Braves then left Bummer in to give the three runs right back, even letting him face the leadoff guy for a second time in the process. A few days before that, Bummer made it through two<\/em> innings unscathed to start a game against the Orioles, striking out five in the process, but then was left in to allow two homers in the third inning, including one to a guy facing him the second time in three innings. Those two games were, in fact, his lowest-WPA outings of the year, showing the Braves\u2019 commitment to making sure that Bummer did not help the team despite his ability to pitch pretty well.<\/p>\n

And, sure, sometimes pitching to contact will result in unfortunate results like this walkoff single that\u2019s an inning-ending double play if hit more closely to a fielder, but them\u2019s the breaks. Bummer has largely thrived in his career with that profile, but the Braves just don\u2019t seem to care from a usage perspective.<\/p>\n

2026 outlook<\/h5>\n

When the Braves restructured Bummer\u2019s contract, they put $9.5 million of the $13 million in 2026. They\u2019ll certainly want more out of him next season. It\u2019s kind of up to them to actually use him in situations where they can get more, though.<\/p>\n

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Steamer sees something in the middle of 2024 and 2025, which makes sense. Basically, he\u2019s projected an above-average but not necessarily great reliever. Bummer is only 31 years old, so he\u2019s not too old. Getting a half-win isn\u2019t going to be sufficient to make up for the contract extension here, and Atlanta likely would have been better off keeping the contract as it was and potentially buying him out. But it\u2019s not devastating enough to really argue about for much, especially when his usage is much more confounding.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a decent chance of a Bummer Renaissance in 2026, something where he looks and produces more like his 2023 self, higher-leverage boost to his value and all. Such is the nature of relievers, including the fact that they get value boosts if they perform well in higher leverage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Or should I say … Dylan Dodd? Nah, Aaron Bummer it is.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":127519,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[179,1437,71,2802,4735,1879,1352,2597,1969,2089,807,1947,1964,1188,3936,1808,2916],"class_list":["post-127511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-aaron-bummer","tag-arsenal","tag-atlanta-braves","tag-austin-cox","tag-braden-shewmake","tag-brewers","tag-cardinals","tag-dane-dunning","tag-dylan-dodd","tag-enyel-de-los-santos","tag-erick-fedde","tag-jared-shuster","tag-michael-soroka","tag-nicky-lopez","tag-scott-blewett","tag-white-sox","tag-xavier-edwards"],"yoast_head":"\nEN: A newly leaked evaluation of Aaron Bummer has stunned Braves fans as analysts unveil surprising details about his 2025 performance arc. 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