White Sox general manager Chris Getz\u2019s recent comments about the 2025 season hint that he\u2019s planning to keep the purse strings sealed tight this offseason, but perhaps I can change his mind.<\/p>\n
In his final media session right before season\u2019s end, Getz discussed his offseason strategy. While he left the door open for the Sox to sign a free agent if it suits them, Getz made it clear the offseason won\u2019t include a spending spree, as many fans hoped. Per MLB\u2019s Scott Merkin, Getz explained, \u201cWhat\u2019s really going to drive [free agent spending] are the players that are currently in our uniform. If there are opportunities to supplement this group and continue to drive this forward, we are going to go ahead [and spend].\u201d<\/p>\n
With nearly any other ball club, this strategy would pan out well. Emphasize prospect and sophomore development. Fill in the lineup gaps between Kyle Teel, Colson Montgomery, Chase Meidroth and Edgar Quero, but be as frugal with the rest of the position players as possible. Develop Jonathan Cannon and Shane Smith to be more consistent, and then bring up Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith to round out the back end of the rotation. Sounds simple enough, right?<\/p>\n
The issue is, this is the infamous former 121-loss Sox we\u2019re talking about. It\u2019s a team that notoriously has failed to develop its position players and identify outfielders who aren\u2019t made of glass, as well as a team that recently fired several key members of its coaching staff including pitching whisperer Ethan Katz. Even if the new hitting and pitching coaches turn out to be gurus, it\u2019s unrealistic to expect them to propel this team from 60 to 80 wins with only the current players.<\/p>\n
Getz not only underestimates this franchise\u2019s uphill battles with player development, but forgets that his young group of players is, indeed, still young and inexperienced. The average age of the 40-man roster as of October 13 is 26.59 years and the average age of Sox position players is 26.9. With one of the youngest rosters among all 30 teams, the Sox have plenty of growing to do. There\u2019s no doubt that everyone loves what they saw from Teel, Montgomery, Meidroth and Quero, and even the young relievers like Grant Taylor and Mike Vasil, but it doesn\u2019t mean that young core should be expected to carry the team. And burdening them with such a tall task will only stunt their development.<\/p>\n
While frivolous spending is wasteful and unnecessary this early in the rebuild, the Sox need to spend more than the $87 million they spent last season. Using MLB team payroll data from 2000-16, the average team spent roughly $1.2 million per win, as denoted in the slope of the linear model I created using Sean Lahman\u2019s data package, which pulls historical MLB data from 1985-2016, in R. If the Sox aim to improve their record by 10 games (the expectation for a team positively progressing in its rebuild), then the Sox must spend more.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
MLB Cost Per Win 2000-2016 calculated by Hannah Filippo using Sean Lahman\u2019s packaged historical data in R<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
As this data is on the older side, the expected cost per win since 2020 should be higher than $1.2 million given inflation and the recent blockbuster deals that have widened the gap between rich and frugal teams. (Thanks, Los Angeles and New York.) In reality, the Sox will likely have to carry a $90-100 million payroll to achieve 70+ wins.<\/p>\n
Even if you don\u2019t listen to fans, please, Getz, I implore you to pay attention to data. Sabremetrics provides a fabulous excuse to tune information out given the overwhelming nature of data overload, but I\u2019m making it very simple for you here: Help yourself and, most importantly, your players, and give them the support needed to be their best.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sometimes, money truly does buy success<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":107593,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-107592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb"],"yoast_head":"\n