MLB playoff clinching scenarios for Mets, Yankees, Guardians and more entering final day of 2025 season originally appeared on The Sporting News
The MLB season can feel extraordinarily long, but 161 games weren’t enough to settle the postseason picture.
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Two divisions remain up for grabs entering the final day of the regular season. The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees are taking aim at the AL East and the AL’s No. 1 seed, while the Cleveland Guardians are trying to finish off an improbable comeback and win the AL Central over the Detroit Tigers. All four teams have clinched a postseason berth, but the uncertainty surrounding each division leaves both wild-card matchups in the AL undetermined heading into Game 162.
In the NL, the postseason picture is nearly set, with one exception. The Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets are still chasing MLB’s final spot, with surging Cincinnati and disappointing New York each vying for the NL’s No. 6 seed and the right to take on the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers out west.
All teams play at the same time on the final day of the regular season, so madness is promised.
Here’s a look at each scenario for the AL East and AL Central entering the final day of the season, along with both wild-card races.
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MLB playoff scenarios 2025
AL East clinching scenarios
How can the Blue Jays clinch the AL East?
The Blue Jays can clinch the AL East with either a win OR a loss and a Yankees loss. Toronto holds the tiebreaker advantage over New York, so the only scenario that can prevent the Blue Jays from winning the AL East is a loss and a Yankees win.
How can the Yankees clinch the AL East?
The Yankees can clinch the AL East with a win AND a Blue Jays loss. Because Toronto owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, New York does not control its fate and needs the Rays to defeat the Blue Jays.
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AL Central clinching scenarios
How can the Guardians clinch the AL Central?
The Guardians can clinch their second consecutive AL Central title with a win OR a loss with a Tigers loss. Because Cleveland holds the tiebreaker advantage over Detroit, the only scenario that prevents the Guardians from winning the AL Central is a loss and a Tigers win.
How can the Tigers clinch the AL Central?
The Tigers can clinch the AL Central with a win AND a Guardians loss. Cleveland owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, so Detroit still needs help even with a win over the Boston Red Sox.
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NL wild-card clinching scenarios
How can the Reds clinch a playoff berth?
The Reds can clinch a postseason berth with a win OR a loss and a Mets loss. Cincinnati holds the tiebreaker over New York and regained control of the No. 6 seed on Friday before holding serve on Saturday. Now, a win would be enough to give the Reds their first full-season postseason bid since 2013.
How can the Mets clinch a playoff berth?
The Mets can clinch a postseason berth with a win AND a Reds loss. A loss to the Marlins on Friday allowed the Reds to jump the Mets for the NL’s final wild-card spot, and the standings remained unchanged after both teams won on Saturday. New York doesn’t control its fate, so every Mets fan will have to root for the Brewers as well on Sunday.
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AL wild-card seeding scenarios
The National League’s Wild Card Series picture is fairly straightforward: the Chicago Cubs will host the San Diego Padres, while the Dodgers will host either the Reds or Mets.
The American League’s is not quite as simple.
The only team locked into a seed is the Seattle Mariners, who are No. 2 in the AL and own a bye.
The Blue Jays will be the No. 1 seed if they win the AL East and the No. 4 seed if the Yankees win the AL East. If they play in a Wild Card Series, they would host either the Red Sox or Tigers.
The Yankees will likewise be the No. 1 seed if they win the AL East but remain the No. 4 seed if the Blue Jays win the AL East. If they play in a Wild Card Series, they would host either the Red Sox or Tigers.
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The Guardians will be the No. 3 seed if they win the AL Central and can only be the No. 6 seed if the Tigers win the AL Central. If Cleveland wins the AL Central, it could host either the Red Sox or Tigers in the Wild Card Series. If the Guardians are the No. 6 seed, they would travel to Detroit to face the Tigers.
The Tigers have the widest range of outcomes. They would be the No. 3 seed and host the Guardians if they won the AL Central. If they don’t win the AL Central but still beat the Red Sox on Sunday, the Tigers would be the No. 5 seed and head to Yankee Stadium to face the Yankees. If they don’t win the AL Central and lose on Sunday, Detroit would be the No. 6 seed and head to Cleveland.
The Red Sox can lock up the No. 5 seed with a win over the Tigers on Sunday, securing a date with the Yankees in the Bronx. A loss would keep them at No. 5 only if the Guardians also lost, which would slide the Tigers up to No. 3 and drop Cleveland to No. 6. If the Red Sox lose and Guardians win, Boston would drop to No. 6 and head to Cleveland for the Wild Card Series while the Tigers moved to No. 5.
