By Mark Polishuk | at
Upgrading the rotation is a known goal for the Red Sox this winter, with such trade targets and free agents as Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, and old friend Nathan Eovaldi already reportedly on Boston’s radar in the offseason’s early stages. Blake Snell is another prominent name also under consideration, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (in a recent appearance on the Baseball Bar-B-Cast) said the Sox “are talking with” the two-time Cy Young Award winner.
The Red Sox were somewhat lightly linked to Snell’s market when he was a free agent last year, as while reports suggested the Sox had some level of interest in the left-hander, other pitchers like Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery were ahead of Snell on Boston’s wish list. As it turned out, the Sox didn’t end up landing any of the top-tier arms available on the market, even though Snell and Montgomery were both available deep into Spring Training, and Montgomery didn’t end up signing with the Diamondbacks until Opening Day.
At this point in the winter calendar, it is fair to assume the Red Sox are “in on” several pitchers to one degree or another, so it isn’t any surprise that they’ve reached out to Snell out of due diligence alone. That said, the two parties are a natural fit, which is likely why MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco each predicted Snell would indeed sign with Boston as part of our site’s top 50 free agent projections (Snell ranks fourth on our list, and is predicted to land a five-year, $160MM contract).
The Red Sox have largely eschewed making splashy signings in recent years, as the club has been more focused on reloading the minor league system and finding value signings than making a truly aggressive bid to contend. After three straight non-winning seasons, patience is running thin within the fanbase, and there is some increased pressure on the Sox front office to make a big-budget signing as a clear marker that the club wants to win. Landing a top pitcher like Snell would certainly count in this category, and give the Sox the ace-level pitcher the rotation so clearly needs.
Snell’s extended stay in free agency ended last winter when he joined the Giants in mid-March, and the abbreviated nature of his Spring Training prep initially seemed to be leading to a disastrous season. The left-hander’s first three months in San Francisco resulted in two injured-list stints and a 9.51 ERA over six starts and 23 2/3 innings, and yet as has so often been the case in Snell’s career, he only got better as the season developed. In the most extreme example yet of Snell’s second-half surges, he had a phenomenal 1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts and 80 1/3 innings, once again re-establishing himself as one of baseball’s best pitchers. As such, Snell chose to exercise the opt-out clause in his two-year, $62MM deal with San Francisco, foregoing the $30MM owed to him in 2025 in order to chase a pricier long-term commitment.
This isn’t to say that some of the questions that clouded Snell’s market last winter have entirely disappeared. He was again hampered by injuries, and is now another year old, as he’ll turn 32 in December. However, one key difference between Snell’s free agent status from last year to this year is that he no longer has a qualifying offer attached to his services. Snell rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer last winter, and since the QO can only be issued to a player once in his career, a team is free to sign Snell without having to surrender any compensation.
Boston would have to give up $500K in international bonus pool money as well as its second-highest pick in next year’s draft in order to sign a qualified free agent. It can be argued that Snell’s lack of QO status is a bigger deal for luxury tax payors, as since they face a stiffer penalty for signing one of the 13 free agents who were issued qualifying offers this offseason, a pitcher like Snell might have more appeal than a qualified pitcher like Fried or Corbin Burnes.
Still, the Red Sox would certainly love to avoid losing a draft pick if they can help it, plus the Sox could also be considering Snell and a qualified free agent. For instance, the Sox are interested in Juan Soto and Teoscar Hernandez among the position player class, in addition to their quest for rotation help. Nick Pivetta also appears likely to reject Boston’s qualifying offer, so the Sox would get a compensatory pick back if Pivetta signed elsewhere.
