One thing has appeared clear for a couple of weeks. The Chicago Cubs and the San Diego Padres are likely to play each other in the NL wild card playoffs.
Now, the location of the series is up for debate, thanks to a late surge by the Padres and a late swoon by the Cubs.
The Cubs (88-69) fell to the New York Mets (81-76), 9-7, at Wrigley Field. Later Tuesday, the Padres (87-71) beat the Milwaukee Brewers. Chicago has lost five straight games while the Padres have won their last four games.
It’s creating tension for the Cubs with five games remaining in their season.
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 24, 2025
The Cubs had a magic number of four going into Tuesday’s action. That magic number is to clinch the No. 4 seed, or the top NL wild card bid. That No. 4 seed comes with a home playoff series in the wild card round. Because of how that round is set up, there is no travel for the home team, as all three games of the best-of-3 series are at home.
Every time the Cubs win or the Padres lose, the magic number drops. The Cubs had a healthy lead. But, with San Diego’s run, plus Chicago’s sudden issues, the Cubs’ lead for the No. 4 seed is down to 1.5 games. The Padres have one fewer game left to play than Chicago.
Chicago’s problem is that New York is hungry for wins because it entered Tuesday’s action tied for the final wild card berth with the Cincinnati Reds, who swept the Cubs in a four-game series last weekend. The Mets can’t flounder because in the event they end up in a tie with the Reds they won’t make the playoffs.
New York beat Chicago and Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh, meaning that the Mets have a one-game cushion over the Reds with five games remaining. It also means that New York remains highly motivated to win.
The Cubs are seeking their first trip to the World Series since 2016, when they ended the franchise’s 100-plus year drought and ended the “curse of the Billy Goat” with a seven-game series victory over the Cleveland Guardians.
Chicago Cubs Magic Number Watch
nico headed home once again! pic.twitter.com/TBhcM6LSdF
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 24, 2025
Magic Number to Clinch No. 4 Seed: 4
Chicago Cubs Games Remaining: 5
Chicago Cubs Remaining Schedule: Sept. 24-25 vs. New York Mets; Sept. 26-28, vs. St. Louis.
NL Wild Card Race (after Sept. 23)
Chicago Cubs: 88-69 (7.0 games ahead)
San Diego Padres: 87-71 (5.5 games ahead)
New York Mets: 81-76 (final wild card berth)
Cincinnati Reds: 80-77 (1.0 game behind final berth)
