We’re in the home stretch. There are only 10 games to go in the 2025 season, and the Yankees are doing what you want a team to do entering October, going in hot. They have the best record in baseball since their series loss at home against Houston in mid-August and remain in a favorable position to have home-field advantage in the Wild Card Round. The Blue Jays responded to their series defeat in the Bronx by going on another heater, so it’s unlikely the division is still in play, but it ain’t over ‘till it’s over.

Tonight, the Yankees play the Orioles. These two teams will be well acquainted over the next two weeks, finishing up with seven of their last 10 against one another after facing off just six times through 152 games. Opportunity is knocking for the Yanks, as Toronto lost a matinee to Tampa and Boston lost the series to the A’s.

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Yankees’ ace Max Fried will get the ball for his 31st and likely penultimate start of the season. Fried is lined up to pitch on the 24th against the White Sox next, which lines him up to start Game 1 of a potential Wild Card series. In 30 starts, he’s 17-5 with a 3.03 ERA (133 ERA+) and 3.25 FIP in 181.1 innings. If he pitched into the fifth today, he’ll exceed his career high in innings pitched. If he picks up the win today, he’ll be the first pitcher in the majors to reach 18 wins, something that would’ve earned him serious Cy Young consideration over Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet about 20 years ago.

It’s been a tale of three seasons for Fried. Through the end of June, he posted a 1.92 ERA across 17 starts, an incredible run that had him in the driver’s seat to start the All-Star Game. Alas, a blister suffered on July 12 against the Cubs derailed his steady presence, as he posted a 6.8 ERA across 41 innings and eight starts through mid-August until he turned it back around with a dominant six innings in a no-decision against Boston. He enters play with a 1.95 ERA in his last five starts. He had a quality start in his lone start against the O’s this season on June 20.

Cade Povich will go for the Orioles. The former third-round pick has disappointed in his sophomore campaign, posting a 5.05 ERA (80 ERA+) and 4.30 FIP in 101.2 innings. The surface level numbers are completely stagnant from last year, but the 25-year-old has improved his command and improved his strikeout rate in what’s mostly been a season to forget. In his lone start against the Yanks this season, he allowed three runs in 4.2 innings on April 30.

The Baseball Savant page is ugly. He gives up some of the loudest contact in the league, and although he has an average walk rate and above-average strikeout rate, he doesn’t generate enough whiffs and chases to be effective. Lefties hit him better, but he gives up harder contact to righties. His four-seamer is his top pitch and has been decent, but the underlying data is ugly. The same can be said about his changeup, but the exact inverse for his curveball. He also mixes in a sweeper and sinker. His low fastball velocity is something the Yankees have crushed all season.

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Paul Goldschmidt will lead off against the lefty, as the Yankees will send the three best lefty mashers in the game in the first inning with Judge in right and Bellinger in left. Stanton is back in the lineup at DH, while Amed Rosario gets another start (this one at 2B) after homering off Crochet on Sunday. Jose Caballero and Anthony Volpe will start tonight, as Ryan McMahon sits with the platoon disadvantage. Ben Rice will sit after catching last night, as will Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Baltimore will throw out seven righties, with Ryan Mountcastle leading off. Notably, Gunnar bats third and the rookie Samuel Basallo will bat seventh and catch with Adley Rutschman on the shelf.

How to Watch:

Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — Baltimore, MD

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First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. EDT

TV broadcast: FOX

Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY) | 98 Rock 97.9 FM, WBAL 1090 AM (BAL)

Online stream: MLB.tv

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