The Red Sox got a much-needed victory Sunday thanks to a dazzling performance from ace Garrett Crochet on the mound and an explosive first inning from the Boston bats. A six-run first inning was all the Red Sox needed offensively, as the team hung on for a 6-4 win to squander the series finale.

The Red Sox finished the regular season 9-4 against the Yankees, which gives Boston the tie-breaker should the two teams finish all square by season’s end. But at the moment, the Yankees (83-66) own a 1.5 game lead over the Red Sox (82-68) for the top American League Wild Card spot.

The Red Sox still have a shot at that top spot with a dozen games to play, but they also have a few teams nipping at their heels for the second Wild Card. Boston’s three-game losing streak before Sunday’s win couldn’t have come at a worse time, with both the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers surging as they fight for a postseason spot.

Nothing is a given for the Red Sox at the moment, but they have a 90.4 percent chance of making the postseason for the first time since 2021. It was take an absolute collapse over the next two weeks for the playoff drought to extend.

“If you told me in Fort Myers we’d be in a playoff spot with two weeks left, I would have taken it. I know people here would have taken it, too,” Boston manager Alex Cora said after Sunday’s win. “We’re not perfect, like I always say. But it’s a good baseball team. Be ready for Tuesday.”

Red Sox MLB playoff picture

If the postseason started today, baseball fans would get another Red Sox-Yankees playoff series. Boston would visit New York for a best-of-three Wild Card series starting on Sept. 30, with all three games in the Bronx.

But that No. 2 wild card spot (and No. 5 seed overall in the AL) is far from locked down. The Houston Astros are just a game back from the Red Sox, and the red hot Texas Rangers (winners of seven of their last 10) are just two games behind the Astros.

The Red Sox own the tiebreaker over the Astros, though the Rangers have the tiebreaker over the Red Sox. Boston has a little more wiggle room Monday morning because both Houston and Texas lost on Sunday.

It will also help Boston’s cause that Houston and Texas will now play each other over the next three days, while the Red Sox will open a three-game series against the Athletics on Tuesday.

We can probably close the book on the Red Sox stealing the AL East, with Boston sitting 5.5 games behind Toronto. But the Red Sox are in a great spot to clinch their first postseason berth in four years, as long as they don’t stumble over the final 12 games.

Red Sox remaining schedule

Here’s what the Red Sox have left in the regular season:

September 16-18: vs. Oakland
September 19-21: @ Tampa Bay
September 23-25: @ Toronto
September 26-28: vs. Detroit

Boston is 10-3 combined against the A’s and the Rays, but has two tough series to close out the season. The Blue Jays have won seven of 10 against the Red Sox this season, and the Tigers swept a three-game series in Detroit in May.

The Blue Jays are four games up on the Yankees in the AL East, and will likely have a chance to clinch the division when they host the Red Sox. Toronto has a seven-game road trip against the Rays (four games) and the Royals (three games) before closing the regular season at home against Boston and the Rays (three games).

The Yankees are also heading out on a seven-game road trip, with three against the Twins in Minnesota and four against the Orioles in Baltimore. New York closes the season in the Bronx, with three games against the 93-loss Chicago White Sox before closing things out with a three-game set against the O’s. The Twins and White Sox have already been eliminated from postseason contention.

The Astros will play their next six games in Houston, with three against the Rangers and three against the now AL-West leading Seattle Mariners. The Astros will finish their regular season on the road with three each against the Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels.

After playing a three-game set with the Astros, the Rangers host the Miami Marlins and the Twins in three-game sets before closing out the season against the Guardians in Cleveland. The Guardians have won four straight and nine of their last 10, and currently sit 2.5 games behind the Rangers.

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