The race to land Roki Sasaki is heating up, and like any top-tier free agent, there’s plenty of speculation about where he’ll sign once posted.

However, the 23-year-old right-hander is unlike most high-profile free agents.

Most of the narrative surrounding Sasaki has connected him to the Los Angeles Dodgers but according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic, it might not be a done deal.

Although the Dodgers are interested in Sasaki, and some have labeled them as the favorites to sign him, it’s not a conclusion shared by all.

Based on Bowden’s conversations with league sources, including front-office decision-makers who are optimistic about their own chances, it seems unlikely that Sasaki will end up with the Dodgers.

“Based on what I’m hearing, I think the Padres, Rays, Mets and Braves are all more likely to sign Sasaki than the Dodgers — and several other teams will be in the mix,” Bowden wrote.

Also according to Bowden, his decision will come down to endorsements.

Considering this, the Dodgers may not be the perfect fit for Sasaki. In Los Angeles, he would be overshadowed by both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, potentially limiting his endorsement opportunities.

Bowden writes, “Yamamoto has experienced this to a degree, as being on the same team as Ohtani has led to Kodai Senga of the New York Mets drawing more endorsement deals than Yamamoto, according to a league source. It only makes sense that Sasaki will consider this factor in making his decision.”

Another factor is the media.

With the Dodgers, Sasaki would face a significant Japanese media presence, with 25 to 35 reporters covering the team regularly.

While he’ll attract plenty of attention no matter where he signs, that intense level of scrutiny might not be ideal for a young pitcher still developing.

No matter where Sasaki signs, he’ll need to be managed carefully, with a likely target of 120-130 innings in 2025, according to Bowden.

It will be interesting to see which team he ultimately chooses.

However, the idea that it will be the Dodgers doesn’t seem likely which is good news for the Padres. Based on what’s being heard, the Padres, Rays, Mets, and Braves appear to be stronger candidates to sign Sasaki, with several other teams also in the mix.