The Chicago Cubs enter Friday’s game with the Tampa Bay Rays with a magic number of eight to clinch a playoff berth.
Chicago (83-63) has been chipping away at that number the past couple of weeks. The Cubs have a 7.5-game lead over the New York Mets, which would possess the final wild card playoff berth if the season ended today. That lead is bigger than the lead the Milwaukee Brewers (89-59) have over the Cubs in the NL Central, which is 5.5 games.
The Cubs are unlikely to catch the Brewers for the division title. With 16 games remaining, the Cubs would have to completely collapse to miss the playoffs. Just how bad would Chicago have to collapse?
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The Cubs are 7.5 games ahead of the Mets for the final berth. New York is having its own issues right now, as it leads the San Francisco Giants and the Cincinnati Reds by 1.5 games for the final spot.
But let’s say the Mets turn it around starting on Friday and the Cubs take a downturn. Based on the math, the Cubs would have to lose eight of their final 16 games to blow that playoff berth, based on where the Mets are. Oh, and New York would need to win every game down the stretch to make it work.
So, even at .500 baseball down the stretch, if the Mets lost just one game it would be enough to protect the Cubs’ playoff berth — assuming nothing else happens.
Cubs Magic Number
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The Cubs have a magic number of eight to clinch an NL playoff berth. That is a combination of Cubs victories or losses by the Giants or Reds, depending upon who is in second place at the time. Both are tied going into Friday’s games.
San Francisco will face the Los Angeles Dodgers, who lead the National League West. Cincinnati is also on the west coast to face the Athletics. The Cubs will be scoreboard watching this weekend to see if they can get some help.
The Cubs are trying to get to the playoffs for the first time since 2020, when they won the NL Central title during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. That ended a run of five playoff berths in six seasons, which included the 2016 World Series title, the franchise’s first championship in more than a century.
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Magic Number to Clinch Playoff Berth: 8
Chicago Cubs Games Remaining: 16
Chicago Cubs Remaining Schedule: Sept. 12-14, vs. Tampa Bay; Sept. 15-17, at Pittsburgh; Sept. 18-21, at Cincinnati; Sept. 23-25 vs. New York Mets; Sept. 26-28, vs. St. Louis.
NL Wild Card Race (after Sept. 11)
Chicago Cubs: 83-63 (7.0 games ahead)
San Diego Padres: 80-67 (4.0 games ahead)
New York Mets: 76-70 (last wild card berth)
San Francisco Giants: 74-72 (2.0 games behind final berth)
Cincinnati Reds: 74-72 (2.0 games behind final berth)
NL Central Update
Milwaukee Brewers: 89-59
Chicago Cubs: 83-63 (5.5 games behind)
Brewers Magic Number to clinch NL Central: 11
Brewers Games Remaining: 15
Milwaukee Brewers Remaining Schedule: Sept. 12-14, vs. St. Louis; Sept. 16-18, vs. Los Angeles Angels; Sept. 19-21, at St. Louis; Sept. 22-24 at San Diego; Sept. 26-28, vs. Cincinnati.
