Will Alex Bregman stay or go? Red Sox decision could derail future postseason path

Alex Bregman’s future in Boston has been the topic of discussion seemingly since he signed with the Red Sox in the offseason.

That conversation only was fueled more after the Rafael Devers trade. With an opt-out looming in the offseason, and with a clear need for an impact bat in the lineup, Bregman has never been needed more in Boston both now and long-term. Especially with the 31-year-old established as one of the best third basemen in baseball while hitting .281/.364/.485 with 16 home runs and 54 RBI in 95 games.

Bregman is very likely to opt-out of his contract with the Red Sox after this season. So what will happen with him?

What will Alex Bregman do in free agency — and how will the Red Sox handle it?

First, Bregman will attract big interest and a massive contract. He will surely land a long-term contract, possibly five or more years, and should garner at least $35 million per season, as Jeff Passan of ESPN.com suggested. That’s big money. The Red Sox, especially recently, don’t have a history of handing out such paydays with exceptions being Garrett Crochet and Devers.

But by trading Devers, the Red Sox have increased flexibility. The Giants took on the remainder of the approximately $254.5 million still owed to the star slugger through the 2033 season. The Red Sox also got ahead of Roman Anthony’s future massive payday by signing him to an eight-year, $130 million contract, well below what he would have earned had he waited. And they also have others, such as Crochet and Ceddanne Rafaela signed long-term as well as a young core of players in the majors and minors.

Put simply: Cash should not be an issue for the Red Sox with Bregman.

So why haven’t the Red Sox extended Bregman yet? Well, because he’s represented by Scott Boras. He prefers his players establish their values on the open market, allowing them to get the most cash possible. Which means that Bregman has always been highly, highly unlikely to do an extension before free agency, and surely Craig Breslow and the Red Sox front office understood that.

As far as what Bregman’s future holds, that’s very much unknown. The competition for his services will only drive up the bidding in the offseason, but the Red Sox are equipped to meet those demands. My guess is that Bregman ultimately stays in Boston on a new contract, but considering that talks likely haven’t even happened yet means it’s anyone’s guess where he is in 2026.

Besides, Bregman is by far the top third baseman set to hit the open market with the other options being Eugenio Suarez, Max Muncy (club option) and Gio Urshela. Perhaps Bo Bichette, who will sign for nine figures this winter, could be an alternative if he were willing to move off shortstop and Bregman were to sign elsewhere.

But surely the Red Sox’s activity, especially the Anthony extension, were about two things in mind. 1) ensuring the foundation of the organization is set and 2) with keeping Bregman in mind.

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