After finishing second in the Rookie of the Year race last season, Baltimore Orioles fans had high hopes for Colton Cowser coming into 2025. Though his numbers certainly dipped at the end of the season, Cowser still hit 24 homers and was also an elite defender in the outfield. Unfortunately, his production has dropped off significantly this season.

After posting a reasonable .768 OPS last season, Cowser has seen his OPS drop to .703 in 2025. Cowser’s thumb injury earlier this season along with his recent concussion have certainly played a role, however, a closer look at his underlying metrics from last season suggest that fans probably should have expected some regression at the plate this year.

Colton Cowser’s underlying offensive metrics should have the Orioles on high alert

Given the amount of time he’s spent away from the field this season, one can give Cowser a pass on the decline in his defensive production year-over-year. The arm strength is still there and if Cowser had been on the field more, he probably would have produced similar results with his glove.

Cowser’s bat, however, is showing some troubling trends. This season, his expected batting average (xBA) as of August 28 sits at just .226 which is incredibly close to his actual batting average (.222). His 33.3% whiff rate is bottom-tier and his strikeout rate is even worse. It was the same story in 2024. There were lots of strikeouts, lots of whiffs, and a rough .230 xBA that Cowser simply managed to outperform.

Part of the problem is that on the balls Cowser has put in play, he’s hit into the ground. His ground balls rate is 47.4% versus “just” 43.3% last season. He’s still hitting the ball hard, but he pulls the ball into the ground a lot and that wastes a lot of that harder contact.

Ultimately, whether or not Cowser can turn things around will come down to his ability to punish non-fastballs. Changeups have always given him fits, but he was pretty good against breaking stuff in 2024. This season, sliders and curveballs have eaten him alive when he wasn’t hurt. If he can make that adjustment, his discouraging underlying metrics will improve. If he can’t, the injury concerns may be the least of the Orioles’ worries with Cowser.