Overnight lows will fall into the 50s all week in Boston — a sure sign that Mother Nature is getting ready for October. You know who else is getting ready for October? Garrett Bellolito. The top three members of the Red Sox rotation have combined to spend the majority of the last two and a half months making both hitters and people who claimed the Red Sox desperately needed a No. 2 starter at the deadline look like idiots (hand raised!).

In the trio’s last 41 games going back to June 6th, the team is 29-12, which shouldn’t be all that surprising. What is probably surprising is that Garrett Crochet has the worst ERA of group over that span. Even crazier? Lucas Giolito now has the best mark after his gem in Baltimore tonight. Here’s the details broken out:

Lucas Giolito: 2.31 ERA (14 games)

Brayan Bello: 2.63 ERA (14 games)

Garrett Crochet: 2.77 ERA (13 games)

Giolito was nothing short of spectacular in this one! It wasn’t just that he threw eight shutout innings, it’s how in control he looked doing it. The big righty consistently used his off-speed pitches to throw off the timing of the entire Oriole lineup, and they never locked into his rhythm. His stuff had wicked movement, but the wildness stayed away as Giolito remained in control of both the location and speed of all his offerings until the last couple of batters, where he had to really battle.

Add it all up and the Orioles never came close to scoring a run. Giolito retired the leadoff batter in seven of his eight innings, and the one time he didn’t is because the ball was hit too weakly to third base on an 0-2 pitch, and Alex Bregman could do anything with it.

Here’s Giolito carving up Oriole hitters all night long:

This is a big deal. Not just because of how great he looked tonight as the Sox hunt for a playoff spot, but because of what it means going forward. The more great outings Giolito piles up (they haven’t all be great, but there’s been more great than bad), the more likely he’s going to be able to give the team a decent chance to win games in October.

And that’s really what this is ultimately about. Can this group (specifically Bello and Giolito) find a way to provide enough of a continued punch at the top of the rotation to get through the American League in October. On August 1st, I would have told you “Hell No!” One August 27th? My answer is a much less confident “probably not.”

Ideally, Garrett Bellolito will turn this into a full blown “you idiot!” by the first week of November.

One other housekeeping item on Giolito specifically that’s worth noting. There’s a clause in his contract that if he reaches 140 innings pitched in 2025, the $14 million team option becomes a $19 million mutual option. While Giolito was extremely likely to reach that milestone anyway before tonight, this outing pretty much cements it as long as he stays off the IL. He now sits at 119.1 innings with five outing to go.

In other words, he’s going to decline his part of the mutual option, the Sox are going to give him a Qualifying Offer, and then he’ll decline that and become a free agent. If he keeps pitching like this, that’s a great problem to have.

Lucas Giolito: I mean, duh!

Trevor Story: He hit the solo home run that drew first blood in the second inning. It was the 200th long ball of Story’s (don’t say it!) storied career.

Also of note, the Red Sox are now 19-1 when Story homers this year, so this dude is tightly connected to the pulse of the team.

David Hamilton: He went 2-3 including this home run:

If Hamilton somehow locks down second base, it would be another massive boon to the team.

Masataka Yoshida: This is a huge yikes! Tonight the designated hitter who doesn’t hit went 0-4 with two strike outs. At some point in the not too distant future, the DH slot needs to be used for the overflow outfielder of the day when Rob Refsnyder and Wilyer Abreu come back.

Jarren Duran: Couldn’t build on the momentum from last night. He went 0-4 with three strike outs.

Carlos Narvaez: 0-4 with two strikeouts. Are you ready for things to get really awkward? Connor Wong now has more hits than he does since the All-Star Break.

This was the way the final at bat of the evening with Lucas Giolito on the mound ended. After dominating all night, Giolito began to wobble with two down in the eighth. First, he walked Jackson Holliday on four pitches, and then he fell behind Jeremiah Jackson. The Sox were one bad pitch away from needing to use the high leverage relievers as it was still a 3-0 game at the time.

But instead, Giolito buckled down, fought through an empty tank, didn’t give in, and ultimately got Jackson for the final out of the eighth. With the Red Sox grabbing a couple more runs in the top of the ninth, this sequence saved them from having to use their best bullpen arms tonight, and could end up going a long way to helping set up a possible four game sweep with Garrett Bellolito starting again the next two days.

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