The Twins’ 2026 MLB draft lottery odds are improving by the day
After a brief spurt of competitiveness following their stunning trade deadline fire sale, the Twins have (perhaps predictably) turned into a floundering mess. They just decisively lost a series against the White Sox, who own the worst record in the American League. The Twins are 3-10 since Luke Keaschall’s walkoff homer on August 10 and 12-23 since July 12. They’re a very bad team right now.
And that might not be the worst thing.
All this recent losing has pushed Minnesota up the board when it comes to positioning for the 2026 MLB draft lottery. As of Monday, the Twins have the third-best odds (15.3 percent) to land the No. 1 overall pick in next summer’s draft.
They’re tied with the Braves for the fifth-worst record in baseball, but it works to the Twins’ advantage that a couple teams in front of them (in a draft position sense) are ineligible for a top pick due to certain rules.
The Rockies are the worst team in the league by a mile, but as a revenue-sharing team that has picked in the top six in the past two drafts, they’ll pick no higher than tenth next year as a result of MLB’s anti-tanking rules. The same applies to the Nationals, who have the third-worst record in baseball.
Here’s what the lottery order looks like right now, with a little over a month left in the season:
No one is catching the White Sox, who will almost certainly end up with the best lottery odds despite playing decently since the All-Star break (15-18 record).
But the Twins have an outside chance to rise as high as second because the Pirates have won four games in a row, thanks to a sweep over the Rockies. Pittsburgh’s remaining strength of schedule (.509) is only slightly above Minnesota’s (.505), so that could be a race (to the bottom) to watch.
The Twins could more easily slip down the board if they win some games. The Braves, Athletics, Orioles, and Marlins are all within two games of them in the standings. The Angels would be in that mix if they’re weren’t ineligible for a top-nine pick.
The prize of the 2026 draft is believed to be UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, an outstanding defender who hit 23 homers last season as a sophomore. Alabama’s Justin Lebron and a couple high school shortstops (Jacob Lombard and Grady Emerson) are also among the top projected picks.
The MLB draft is difficult to predict, but the last time the Twins ended up with a top-five pick, they landed Walker Jenkins, who is now their top prospect and a potential future All-Star. They got that pick by jumping up eight spots in the league’s first-ever draft lottery.
Obviously, the players on the Twins’ roster are going to continue trying to win ballgames. It’s not fun or good to see losses piling up like this, especially in the context of the franchise’s ownership situation.
It’s all pretty bleak right now, but at least losses come with a bit of a silver lining in terms of next year’s draft.
The 2026 draft lottery will take place in early December.
