In the wake of the team’s aggressive moves at the trade deadline and the subsequent announcement that the Pohlad family will retain control of the franchise, Twins fans have spent much of the last three weeks wondering whether the team will enjoy more investment from ownership over the next few years. On the contrary, when he appeared on the YouTube show “Foul Territory” on August 14, The Athletic beat writer Dan Hayes speculated that payroll will shrink in 2026—perhaps by $30 million or more.

It’s too early to assume this is an accurate projection; that’s why Hayes himself has yet to write a story around that forecast. It will be at least mid-October before the team settles on its budget for 2026, and even then, we saw more money shake loose for the team late last offseason. Teams don’t make final decisions about how to allocate resources for the coming offseason in August; Hayes’s reporting is strictly based on background chatter and his own assessment of the team’s payroll as it projects right now.

We can already begin to do that assessment ourselves, though, and it’s not terribly hard to see what Hayes is seeing—especially if one assumes, as is always wise, that he’s plugged in as well as is possible to the team’s thinking at this early stage of turning toward next year. Let’s take a look at the current payroll picture, to understand what it means when Hayes speculates such a slashing of spending this winter.

Locked-in Money

It makes sense to start with the player who isn’t going anywhere, and the monetary obligation that can’t be traded. The former is Byron Buxton, who continues to profess his love of playing for the Twins and who has a no-trade clause. The $15 million he’ll make in 2026 is a non-negotiable cornerstone of the payroll, just as he’s the cornerstone of the team.

Will the Twins have a payroll over or under $100 million in 2026?

The other cornerstone was supposed to be Carlos Correa, of course, but he went to Houston via trade on July 31. In the process, the Twins agreed to pay the Astros $10 million per year from 2026 through 2028. (In case you’re wondering, trading obligations like those in other, later deals is not allowed.) That brings us quickly to $25 million, and there are still 25 Opening Day roster spots to fill. Let’s talk, then, about the guys who will soak up the majority of the remaining money—unless they’re sent packing.

Big But Movable

Unlike Buxton, Pablo López doesn’t have a no-trade clause in the extension he signed with the team in 2023. He’s set to make $21.5 million in 2026, but it’s not at all clear that the Twins will be the ones paying that. López is a great pitcher and an even better presence in the clubhouse, but for those very reasons, he’ll also have terrific trade value this winter. For the moment, stack him with Buxton and the ghost of Correa and we’re up to $46.5 million, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he’s dealt.

Two players are in line to receive smaller but substantial salaries via the arbitration process this winter, too. Ryan Jeffers will be arbitration-eligible for the final time before becoming a free agent at the end of the 2026 season, and is already making $4.55 million this year. Expect that number to be around $7.5 million next year. Joe Ryan could make just as much, despite only being in his second year of arbitration eligibility; being one year further from free agency; and making just $3 million this year. His All-Star season and career-best run of health and reliability will send that number skyward.

Both Ryan and Jeffers are good candidates for contract extensions, but at this moment, it’s hard to guess whether the Twins see themselves as being in position to offer them those deals. Certainly, the deadline fire sale did little to engender any interest in such a commitment from the players’ side. Right now, let’s call this group $36.5 million in projected salary—but write it in pencil, instead of pen.

Stalled-Out Players in Arbitration Phase

Ryan and Jeffers have had strong years, and Jeffers is at a stage of the arbitration cycle where players get more earning power almost by default. Thus, they’re likely to get the hefty raises we just described. On the other hand, Bailey Ober ($3.55 million), Trevor Larnach ($2.1 million) and Royce Lewis ($1.625 million) are all having inconsistent, even discouraging seasons after their first trips through arbitration. None of them will get to what Jeffers and Ryan will make next year.

Ober has been the best of that set and has the highest platform salary, so it’s possible he’ll make $7 million. Some of that, like everything else we’re talking about here, depends on how the final six weeks of the season go. Larnach could be in line to make as much as $5 million, but if the Twins project him to earn that much, he’s likely to be non-tendered. A better estimate might be $4.5 million. Lewis should get to the north side of $3 million, but his season has been a disaster and he has less earning power than Larnach right now.

We’ll use that same pencil, again, to write in $15.5 million for these three. Along with the bundles above, we’re up to $77 million already. But now, we get to the part where the team racks up some savings.

Locked in at the League Minimum

Several players whom the team seems almost certain to retain won’t be eligible for arbitration even next year. Each of them represents a roster spot for which the club will only pay roughly $800,000 over the full season. In rough order of clear utility and security as parts of the team’s future, those guys are:

That’s a vital sextet for the team, and it’ll cost only $4.8 million. Though their places are not quite as established or secure, another handful of players in the same bracket can also be penciled in, averaging that same $800,000 per person.

This is half a roster (although not a very good one) making a total of just $10.4 million. If we discount the possibility of non-tendering Larnach or trading any of the López-Jeffers-Ryan class, for now, we’re at 20 roster spots accounted for and $87.4 million. There are just a few more cases to consider, before we start imagining all of this in a more concrete way.

Low-Dollar Arb Dudes

We’re putting them last, but almost no one has a safer roster spot for next year than this small group of guys who have almost no earning power and have played major roles on the 2025 team. Kody Clemens is almost a lock to get over the line and be eligible for arbitration as a Super Two guy. Cole Sands will have more than three years of service time, so he’s automatically eligible, and Justin Topa will be eligible for the final time before becoming a free agent. Even before the fire sale, these guys had roles on the big-league team, but Clemens has been the starting first baseman for weeks now and Topa and Sands are the aces of this war-torn bullpen.

Multiple Twins have pointed to Clemens as one of the best teammates in the whole clubhouse. Though he’s not an elite slugger, he’s more than worth the paltry $1.3 million he might make next year. Ditto for Sands and Topa. As a group, these three might get to $5 million, or they might not even make it that far. It would be a mild shock to see the team non-tender any of them, although they’ll probably draw a hard line with each and keep them only if they can get a deal done before arbitration figures need to be exchanged.

What’s Left to Do, and What’s Left to Do It With

We’re over $92 million now, and the team we’re sketching is not a good one. There are just a few roster spots left to fill, but trades or non-tenders could create another four or five such spots. It sure seems like, even if the Twins have only $100 million or $110 million to spend on 2026, they have money to spend in free agency. The question is how much—and whether those free agents will be tasked with replacing more outgoing guys, or with filling the gaps left by last month’s trades (bullpen depth, the back end of the rotation, the outfield) and by expected free-agent departures (backup catcher).

Twins fans are right to demand real upgrades, rather than such patches.

The team has several great prospects in the upper levels of the minors who should make their debuts next year, but they also have several players penciled into major roles who were great prospects a few years ago and now look like parts of the problem, rather than the solution. If Hayes is correct in his speculation, though, no such influx of high-end talent is forthcoming. The Twins can run a payroll around $30 million lower than this year’s even if they keep López, Ryan and Jeffers, but in that case, they’re likely to be back in the same place next July, and perhaps those three would be traded then.

For the club to move forward and have a more successful 2026, it seems as though they’ll need to either match (or increase) spending or make savvy trades of at least one of that high-earning trio. Since Hayes’s ballpark figure makes the former feel unlikely, the latter possibility will continue to be a hot topic as the offseason comes into view on the horizon.